Bulletins and News Discussion from March 10th to March 16th, 2025 - The New World Struggles To Be Born; Now Is The Time Of Proxy Wars - COTW: Myanmar

Commentary: China wants the private sector to drive growth again, but trust can’t be rebuilt overnight

After years of cracking down on “barbaric growth of capital" in the private sector, China is wooing entrepreneurs again. Is it too little too late? Former SCMP editor-in-chief Wang Xiangwei weighs in.

HONG KONG: At the start of 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping convened senior officials in Beijing for a workshop to discuss and prepare for "black swan" and "grey rhino" events amid a slowing economy and rising international uncertainties.

This meeting followed then US President Donald Trump's initiation of a trade war against China in July 2018, which sent bilateral ties into a downward spiral.

Mr Xi urged officials to remain vigilant and address "major risks" across various fields, including politics, ideology, economy, society, technology and the external environment.

A black swan refers to an unpredictable market event with extreme financial consequences, while a grey rhino is a highly probable and impactful threat that is often ignored.

Since then, China’s leadership has taken decisive steps to tackle perceived grey rhinos, such as ballooning local government debts, struggling city and community banks, and the "irrational and barbaric growth of capital" in the private sector, particularly targeting big tech firms like Alibaba, which owns the South China Morning Post.

However, Beijing's harsh campaign against the private sector has inadvertently unleashed another grey rhino: A lack of confidence among private entrepreneurs.

STIFLING INNOVATION

This lack of confidence, known in China as "lying flat" or "tang ping”, initially caught on among the country's overworked youth who sought to do the minimum and take a break from relentless work.

During the three years of the COVID-19 pandemic, this malaise spread nationwide, affecting not only bureaucrats but also entrepreneurs.

It was also partially fed by fear that success in private business could come with political risks: In 2020, Beijing abruptly halted the US$34 billion IPO of fintech giant Ant Group, controlled by Jack Ma, after he reportedly criticised regulators for stifling innovation.

What ensued was a multi-year crackdown on the so-called "excesses" and "barbaric growth of capital" in the private sector, which has since driven entrepreneurs' confidence to historic lows.

Mr Ma largely disappeared from the public eye following those events, reinforcing concerns that China’s business climate had become too unpredictable.

Within this context, Mr Xi's high-profile meeting with selected private entrepreneurs, including Mr Ma, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Feb 17 is significant - his first such meeting in nearly seven years.

ARE XI’S ASSURANCES ENOUGH?

According to Xinhua, Mr Xi reportedly told entrepreneurs, also including Mr Ma, Ren Zhengfei of Huawei and Wang Chuanfu of BYD, that it was "prime time for private enterprises and entrepreneurs to give full play to their capabilities”.

He assured them that the current difficulties and challenges facing the private sector could be overcome and called for renewed confidence in the future.

Mr Xi also vowed to create equal treatment for the private sector and pledged to ensure access to bank loans while addressing widespread illicit law enforcement and administrative actions, including arbitrary fees, fines, inspections and asset seizures.

Mr Xi’s remarks represent the strongest signal of support for private enterprises at a time when China’s economy is in a deflationary cycle, weighed down by falling property prices and low consumer confidence. Meanwhile, Mr Trump in his second term has threatened additional tariffs on Chinese products, and China’s exports, one of its traditional growth engines, remain bleak.

Beijing recently announced an economic growth target of "around 5 per cent" for this year, but revitalising the private sector is crucial to achieving this goal, especially since the private sector contributes about 60 per cent to China’s gross domestic product and over 80 per cent of employment.

Will Mr Xi’s words be enough? After all, China had already been unwinding its crackdown on the private sector starting in 2023, with officials increasing pro-business rhetoric and referring to private entrepreneurs as "one of us”.

Yet in many cash-strapped localities, illicit actions against the private sector, including arbitrary fees, fines, and asset seizures, have continued unabated.

Mr Xi’s remarks are expected to curb these illicit actions, but whether they will spark optimism among private businessmen remains to be seen.

For those paying attention to the “two sessions” in China, it shouldn’t surprise you that private capital has indeed made a come back with Jack Ma’s reappearance a few weeks earlier.

I am increasingly losing faith in Xi’s ability to curb private capital. Since Li Qiang (Shanghai lib) became the Premier in early 2023, from abandoning Zero Covid policy to opening up China’s capital markets, all indications are pointing to what I have suspecting all these while, that the liberals have indeed succeeded in their coup and have been having the upper hand since 2023.

Yemen has BANNED the import of BURGERS. We salute the People of Yemen and Ansar Allah in their brave campaign against treatlerism.

Portugal cancels F-35 order due to US instability.

Duterte got arrested I believe. ICC warrant for arrest for human rights abuses on his war on drugs that left thousands dead

The Liberal Party of Canada has selected their new leader, Mark Carney by a landslide. there were no real heterodox candidates in this one, it was just a choice between boring Mr Neoliberal (Carney) and Ukrainian Nationalist Neoliberal (Freeland). Carney is correctly (imo) seen as the continuation of Trudeau and all the normal 'Canada's Natural Governing Party' type policies. 3 months ago the LPC didn't have a prayer, but the annex Canada shitshow from Trump has really galvanized Canadians as a whole, particularly the LPC base and now Carney has a real shot of being PM. I expect an election to be called shortly, so probably Canada will have a new government one way or the other by the start of the summer.

https://archive.is/BDFub

cringe incoming: ::: spoiler spoiler

I expect the meme slogan of the campaign to be 'send a Carney to deal with a clown' :::

Forst

Is anyone else hearing "Russiagate 2.0" in their lib circles? I'm consistently hearing people say that Trump is a Russian plant that's been 'activated' by the Russians after 30 years of being dormant. They're talking Cold War 2.0 type shit.

To me it's wild that people actually believe that narrative, rather than "US Oligarchs do a fine job of destroying the US themselves, thank you very much." Where the hell are people hearing this?

perfect timing

“An agreement has been signed between interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander Mazlum Abdi to integrate into the institutions of the Syrian Arab Republic.”

https://t.me/thecradlemedia/31390

This agreement includes a ceasefire that has allegedly already been violated.

https://t.me/nayaforiraq/23210 https://t.me/nayaforiraq/23211

Agreement terms

So, from what I understand about Myanmar/Burma, the two main factions are the Junta/Tatmadaw and the National Unity Government/People's Defense Force. Besides them, there are some ethnic armies that are supported by the US and China. And it seems that both the US and China have also tried a peace deal between the Junta and the NUG, but it doesn't seem to have worked. The junta doesn't want the military and its friends to lose their privileges and doesn't seem to have any real ideology beyond the fact that they want to rule Myanmar.

Interested in learning more about Myanmar, especially a breakdown of various factions, including allies, approximate strength, and their current terrorities. Not even sure where to find reputable info on the situation.

One big note: China probably wants stability in the region more than caring about the specifics of who governs it, as long as whoever is in charge is willing to join BRI (likely regardless, given the need to rebuild infrastructure after a war.)

Myanmar could serve as the shortest path to get Chinese goods to the sea if the West were ever able to encircle them and blockade the strait of Malacca. So a BRI project here could mitigate the damage of the US Navy's biggest strategic advantage in a hypothetical war scenario.

So China likely wants to play a role in rebuilding the country, regardless of who is in charge. Given their border has been a hotspot of human and drug trafficking, they have plenty of reasons to support a quick end to the war, even if the winners don't align with their interests. I think this is why they initially aligned with the junta, hoping they could quickly regain control.

However Western friendly the winning faction or coalition is, it's probably not friendly enough to outright reject Chinese assistance in rebuilding, so the US probably wants to keep the situation an ongoing mess that never becomes stable enough for infrastructure, which is also probably why the US media apparatus largely ignores the situation.

Originally restricted only to products from "red states", British Columbia is now taking all Yank liquor off the shelves of the state-owned enterprise BC Liquor.

Death to America.

“Today, we are ordering the removal of all American beer, wine, spirits and refreshment beverages from the shelves at BCLIQUOR stores. The stores carry hundreds of types of U.S. alcohol that the BC Liquor Distribution Branch will also no longer be purchasing.

Saw that the US stock market is now down after opening ok, and spontaneously started singing “down down to goblin town, down down to goblin town”

I wish this actually was a crash, but the reality is that stocks have inflated so much since COVID and especially over the last year, they have so much further to fall before we are even back to that level.

US-flagged oil tanker collides with container ship in North Sea

Both ships caught fire and were abandoned, 32 people injured and one missing.

The Ukrainian Kursk adventure is officially over. The Ukrainians are retreating from Sudzha, the largest town in Kursk that was still under Ukrainian control, on mass, literally running away and back to Ukraine, abandoning equipment and vehicles while the Russians enter Sudzha. Russian troops have raised the Russian flag at the church in Zamost'e just southeast of Sudzha, and less than 10km from the Russia - Ukraine border. The remaining Ukrainian troop concentrations are being bombed by the Russian Air Force, including the use of helicopters, Su-25 CAS aircraft, and Orion UAVs. There's very little Ukrainian anti aircraft coverage left in Kursk. This is the worst possible time for this to happen for Ukraine.

Geolocated video of Ukrainian forces walking out of Sudzha

Xcancel mirror

It's now just past midnight in Israel now, March 11 in the morning. Ansarallah in Yemen (known was the Houthis in western media) has said that they will restart their attacks on March 11 if aid is not allowed into Gaza. There are no signs of Israel allowing aid into Gaza, in fact they've even cut off the electrical supply to Gaza within the last few days. So we can expect Ansarallah to launch some attacks within the next 24-48 hours, if not tonight. Israeli air defences are said to be on high alert, in particular the Arrow ABM systems. Why would Ansarallah resume their attacks on Israel and the US Navy?

• Firstly, the situation in Gaza is not good. The ceasefire is up in the air, and there is no humanitarian aid entering the Gaza strip. Without any further actions in opposition of Israel, the situation could get worse. The most important thing is to get these people some relief, some breathing room. The Israeli genocide has been catastrophic and murdered hundreds of thousands by now.
• Ansarallah might think that attacks on Yemen are inevitable, given recent US Navy and CENTCOM movements in the region, including the return of the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group to the Red Sea, and CENTCOM General Kurilla meeting with Saudi Arabian and Yemeni opposition officals. So it is better for Ansarallah to strike first and take the initiative.
• The second point fits in here with this third one, which is more broad. Ansarallah might think that continuing a low level conflict against Israel and the US Navy suits their interests. They were the biggest winners over the past two years from an axis of resistance perspective, being able to accomplish their strategic objective (a naval blockade in the Red Sea) with minimal losses. Sure they were unable to sink or hit a US Navy ship despite some close calls, but the US Navy were unable to get shipping traffic back to normal levels and provide adequate protection for cargo ships. Thus Ansarallah accomplished their strategic objective. Waging a just war against Israeli genocide is going to be very popular and unifying (for obvious reasons) among Yemenis who might otherwise have issues with them. Wartime and peacetime governance are two very different things. So a continuation of conflict could very well be in Ansarallah's interests now, to try force the US and Israel to accept their very simple and just demands of letting aid into Gaza. This runs the risk of provoking a further US-Israeli response, but that is a risk Ansarallah seems willing to take given that the US and Israel have been unable to hinder them much so far.

Former far-right Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is arrested in Manila for crimes against humanity. The International Criminal Court is accusing Duterte of mass killings in his “war on drugs”. The defense said that the arrest is a violation of his constitutional right and a random lawyer filed a lawsuit with the Supreme Court of the Philippines to stop the country from obeying the ICC. Duterte asks to be tried in a Philippine court.

Rodrigo Duterte is on a flight to The Hague, where he will appear to answer charges of crimes against humanity, says the current president of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos. Duterte's youngest daughter accused the ICC of “kidnapping” her father to The Hague. Duterte, who turns 80 this month, is accused of killing more than 30,000 Filipinos in his war on drugs.

• Telegram

An anti-american fever sweeps Canada over trumps threats, meanwhile to the south...

Tens of thousands of Mexicans rally with president to celebrate US decision to delay tariffs

how tf has Canada took more heat than Mexico this go around? I think Sheinbaum is the trump whisperer. I think she knows the "trump just agrees with whoever he talked with last" meme and is actually exploiting it (along with constantly massaging his ego in negotiations, I'm sure)

In Trump’s statement announcing the delay, he didn’t point to any specific further concessions from Sheinbaum on either fentanyl or trade, even though there are some policy shifts he might reasonably have hoped to achieve, as we noted on Monday,” he wrote. “Sheinbaum’s midday post also did not point to any specific policy commitments beyond general continued cooperation on migration, fentanyl, and guns.”

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said at a news conference Thursday that, in her call with Trump, she cited a graph from U.S. Customs and Border Protection showing a drop in fentanyl seizures, which she said Trump hadn't previously seen. "In February alone, the reduction in fentanyl seizures on the United States side of the border with Mexico was reduced by 41.5%. He didn’t know about this graph until I sent it to him, she said.

Ukraine accepts 30-day ceasefire with Russia proposed by the United States. However, Russian acceptance is still required. The agreement provides for US protection by air, sky and land and the exploitation of Ukrainian minerals.

• Telegram

The U.S. has canceled financial support for opponents in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.

Republicans believe that the subsidies are not “aligned with the government's priorities”. The United States has canceled support programs for opposition activists, political prisoners and religious groups in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. A State Department analysis concluded that these programs were not aligned with the agencies' priorities and were not in the “national interest”.

As a result, the opposition press in Cuba alone, called the “independent press”, lost a grant of 1.5 million dollars. A post on the White House Rapid Response account on X cited this as an example of the “ridiculous programs” that were cut. Only three of the 95 programs administered by the International Republican Institute (IRI) have not been canceled, but they are paused for 90 days until their evaluation is completed. These programs were funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The three that have been maintained are focused on supporting the Venezuelan opposition.

At a Senate hearing, Republicans argued that it makes no sense to maintain programs aimed at regime change in these countries if it doesn't happen. “My problem is that we can't say in Florida, 'I'm excited about the money we spend on foreign aid because something might happen. Let's see, the Castro regime still controls Cuba, Venezuela just stole another election and Ortega is getting stronger in Nicaragua,” said Senator Rick Scott.

Will Russia accept a ceasefire to allow US intelligence to assist Ukraine? I think not.

Trump rejects tariff exemptions for Australia

Lol, lmao, get fucked albo.

Hoping this just pushes the government closer to China. That'd be pretty cool.

I’ve mentioned it a few times before, but it’s insane how the West just memory-holed Ukraine summarily executing one of its own negotiators early in the war (and insane that they did it). That’s should have been (and should still be) a huge deal, but nah. Ukraine even buried him with honors, admitting he wasn’t some Russian spy, but after that it’s like it never happened.

I find it strange how the Western media keeps blaming Assad for whatever is happening in Syria, I imagine them seeing Bashar Al Assad, just like Gman from Half-Life, who goes around Syria generating neo-baathist rebels just to mess with the pro-Western government. Dude is probably sleeping in Moscow watching football matches all day and sending music to his wife.

LMAO the motherfuckers folded again

Edit: further context

25 percent is still pretty significant I see this as an attempt to temper the markets(which will probably work) the markets thrive on reading headlines and investors engage in magical thinking all the time it’s always dumb money until material reality kicks in.

At this point we should probably just wait for the supply chains to catch up and for this to actually impact Americans(which is definitely going to happen) for the markets to catch up.

comprador moment when the suzerain can't complain themselves

There is almost no fucking movement in the UK to oppose assisted dying and I am pulling my hair out what the fuck why is everyone so apathetic about this.

I'm scared shitless about where this goes.

It's going to be a eugenics program here in the UK just like it is in Canada. It's going to play out exactly the same fucking way. They will use it to kill the disabled and clear up the benefits system.

Got some clarity on the Canada tariffs;

I think Ukraine is gonna lose the war