Yeah your first paragraph is correct. The whole "Kyiv push was a diversion" narrative falls apart when you look at the forces actually deployed. Russia thought that they could just storm in, surround the capital, and Ukraine would surrender/accept the peace deal. Ukraine fighting back (and the huge amount of western/NATO support) was not calculated for in the initial stages of the war, no one thought that Zelensky would be so crazy to let his country be used by NATO to weaken Russia in a war that he would never win. NATO was never going to give Ukraine the equipment necessary to actually defeat Russia on the battlefield, NATO generals and western leaders are mad, but not that mad. It took them years to approve long range strikes into Russia for a reason. NATO/USA sending in a bunch of EA-6B Prowler aircraft and F-16CJ wild weasels (of which many airframes are retired and sitting in storage, literally spare equipment that the US could have sent at any time along with training the pilots at any time) never happened for a reason, instead we got the outdated F-16 deliveries that Ukraine only use in a defensive posture.

Aah,I thought it would work if I shared the link,ooops

If you want it work like that, there's the "unlisted" option.

Think your video is set to private, error 403 on my side.

Looks like airbust AA ammunition, or high explosive.

Apparently it was a military helicopter that's flight started tracking from CIA headquarters, mid air collision with a civilian aircraft that had over 60 people onboard. Latest news as of now is that no survivors have been found from the wreckage. This is subject to change as it's a developing story.

I recorded some of the Ukrainian AA in action

You might not want to post that, the SBU might kidnap you or something if it escapes containment on hexbear and goes viral. They went after the guy who posted a video of the Patriot system in Kyiv pretty quickly.

Also stay as safe as you can please.

But basically on hexbear you can create an account and upload your video to a site called TankieTube, which is run by a hexbear user, and then share the link here in a comment for videos.

This just reminds me that One Republic + Timbaland had 2007 pop music charts on lock with Apologize. And then One Republic built off of that with all their other hits in the 2010s. In general, Timbaland's unique percussion/drum sound in his productions had the whole late 2000s pop era on lock. Anyone making a track with Timbaland was a guaranteed chart topper back then. And "Timbaland drums", or at least something that sounds similar to that, are coming back to the pop scene with artists like Tate McRae.

Update on the deportation flights situation: The fourth deportation flight using a US military aircraft took place today, and to a different country than before. Flight RCH141, a C-17 Globemaster military transport aircraft, left from El Paso, Texas; and landed in Guayaquil, Ecuador. The flight notably avoided Mexican airspace. Ecuador has become the lastest country to allow for the United States to conduct deportation flights using US military aircraft, and has given in to the US demands on this issue without any resistance.

So for a general overview of the situation, I'll break it down into four categories:

Countries that have allowed the United States to conduct deportation flights to them directly using US military aircraft without any resistance:

• Guatemala
• Ecuador

Countries that allow the United States to use their airspace to conduct deportations using US military aircraft to other countries, but have not accepted US military deportation flights themselves:

• Costa Rica
• Nicaragua
• Honduras
• Belize (on a return flight from Guatemala towards the United States)

Countries that put up resistance to deportation flights using US military aircraft, but appear to have given in to US demands on this issue according to the latest White House statement, though this remains to be seen:

• Colombia

Countries that do not allow the United States to use their airspace for US military aircraft deportation flights and have not accepted US military aircraft deportation flights themselves, but do allow the United States to use their airspace for civilian aircraft deportation flights to other countries:

• México.

The UK have been flying ISTAR aircraft off of Cyprus practically every day since October 7th 2023. These aircraft conduct reconnaissance flights around Gaza.

Those two Colombian military flights were sent to pick up migrants that were stranded after the US military aircraft were turned away. The real test will be in the future if/when the United States tries to send military aircraft again to Colombia. The White House statement says that Colombia will accept future military flights from the US, but the situation can change.

It can be interpreted as a positive for Colombia as they used their own planes and ensure the human rights of their people are respected, but it can simultaneously be seen as a negative in Colombia being forced to pick up the tab, so to speak, after turning away the US military aircraft. We'll see what the future holds, I cannot see the Colombians sending their own planes for every single deportation flight to Colombia.

If South African gets involved more officially, I expect others to do the same.

There are a few unmarked flights from various SADC countries. They will likely make trips to Lusaka if this happens.

Update on the situation in the DRC: Things are escalating, situation is critical in Goma, with most of the city in control by the M23 rebels if not already fallen to it, violence escalating, and healthcare systems overwhelmed. South African peacekeeping forces as part of the SADC mission have lost four more lives, total KIA of 13 now. Photos of M23 and/or Rwandan forces have been geolocated to the airport and city centre in Goma, and at official Rwandan border crossings. Embassies of nations that are suspected to be allied to Rwanda (Uganda, Rwanda itself, France, Belgium and the United States) have been attacked by protestors in other parts of the DRC, with protestors saying that they are ready to go to war against Rwanda and to send weapons to the east (to Goma).

Twitter source in French

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There has been lots of movement in the skies in South Africa, with the South African Air Force (SAAF) redeploying from their main base, Makhado Air Force Base, in Polokwane, South Africa; to Waterkloof Airforce Base in Pretoria, South Africa; and with round trips from suspected transport aircraft. I also suspect that the South African military has commandeered civilian Airlink aircraft for VIP transport. If the South African Air Force is to be deployed to fight in the DRC, they will likely fly out to Lusaka, Zambia within the next few days, maybe even tonight. That's if they deploy.

The cruelty very much is the point. Why did the civilian plane fly that flight path around México, wasting fuel and time? To send a message. Why is the USA using military aircraft to deport people, when using civilian aircraft is cheaper and more efficient as you can have more people onboard? Again to prove a point and send a message. It's not even about the migrants onboard in the case of the military flights, the United States and the Trump administration is just using them cynically (because they don't care about them as humans) and transporting them in poor conditions to have an excuse to fly a military plane over another country and flex their muscles, bullying other countries into acceptance.

The UN peacekeepers from Uruguay at least facilitated the surrender of hundreds of Congolese troops, so at least they didn't die for nothing.

Update on the deportation flights situation: There were two deportation flights to Guatemala City, Guatemala today, one utilising a civilian aircraft and one using a military aircraft. If we look at the flight paths of both, we can see something very interesting, the first signs of México caving into the United States' demands, but still putting up some resistance, at least for now.

First we'll start with the civilian plane. We can see that it flies a provocative flight path right along the edge of Mexican airspace for most of it's journey instead of going straight to Guatemala, just before crossing into Mexican airspace at the end. This was a very deliberate choice, and it was allowed to use Mexican airspace at the end, México gave in at the end here. Civilian aircraft carrying out deportation flights to other countries can now use México's airspace. That has now occurred.

As for military aircraft from the United States carrying out deportation flights, they still cannot use Mexican airspace. The military C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft had to fly all the way around México, just like the first two military planes to Guatemala. So México still does not allow US military aircraft to use their airspace to carry out deportation flights, at least for now.

Also, Colombia has sent one of their military transport Boeing 737 aircraft to pick up the Colombian migrants stranded in San Diego, after they made the US military aircraft turn around yesterday. So Colombia is picking up the tab here in a sense, they are having to fly their citizens home, on their own military plane, at presumably their own cost, after initially turning the US military aircraft away. I guess this is what the White House statement about "giving into all of Trump's demands" was partially about. The United States was not going to send another plane for this group of people, Colombia would have to sort it out themselves after refusing the initial plane, and Colombia will likely accept future planes, including US military aircraft, without hesitation.

If anyone is wondering what the conditions are like onboard these C-17 aircraft for the people being deported, the first images of the inside of the planes have been posted online. It appears that migrants are forced to wear masks, everyone has the same brand new blue surgical masks on. No proper seating or amenities are to be seen. All of the migrants are handcuffed as well, or about to be handcuffed, in this very picture a person is being handcuffed. Earplugs are also provided, as it's likely very loud inside the plane. Women and children are separated from the men. Armed soldiers are also onboard.

Key takeaways: México is starting to give in to the United States' demands, but still do not allow for the use of their airspace for US military aircraft carrying out deportation flights as of now, which is the key issue of contention. How long they will hold out for is anyone's guess, but I can't imagine México holding out for long, given that we can see the first signs of concessions towards the United States.

All we needed was no coffee for the trifecta. But alas, Colombia couldn't hold out for that.

Watching the flights now, and it looks like México is starting to fold, but still not fully giving in. I'll update when the situation is clearer.

Yes they are Rwandan backed and Rwandan drones even provide air support now, and don't know the answer to the second question.

Goma fell to the M23 rebels last night as expected.

As predicted, the city of Goma in the DRC fell overnight. The were mass surrenders of the Congolese Army, and South African and UN peacekeepers are just holding key areas such as the airport, probably going to evacuate soon if they haven't already, with Rwanda going to take control of the airport. The situation is bad.

Twitter source, in French

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Lib denial has hit never before seen levels since January 20