Bulletins and News Discussion from January 27th to February 2nd, 2025 - Tariffs in Trump's Imperium - COTW: Colombia

Image is of Colombian President Gustavo Petro giving a speech at the UN in 2022.

Trump has arrived in office with the force of an avalanche; ~~ending~~ slowing a genocide on the one hand, while simultaneously promising a total nightmare for minorities and the poor throughout and outside the United States on the other hand. [edited for clarity; I do not actually think Trump has ended the Palestinian genocide obviously, I was making a joke - but the ceasefire is a genuine improvement in conditions for millions of people right now who are on the edge of death, so it cannot be dismissed]

It's still far too early to truly compare and contrast his imperial strategy with Biden's, but initial signs show that there does appear to be somewhat of a reorientation. Biden was famous for being two-faced; ostensibly offering aid and stability, while also blowing up your pipeline to ensure you did not actually have an alternative to his idea. Trump, meanwhile, seems only really capable of aggression, threatening several "allied" nations with what may as well be sanctions because of the economic harm they'd do. I suspect we'll be debating for a long time how much of this can be attributed to the specific characteristics of Trump, or whether he merely embodies the zeitgeist of imperial decline - a wounded empire lashing out with extreme violence to try and convince everybody, including themselves, that they can still be the world imperialist hegemon.

I'll admit it: I did not believe that Trump would actually try and go ahead with putting tariffs on basically anybody who annoys him. And while the threat could still be empty in regards to countries like China and Canada, Colombia is the first indication of the potential of his strategy. Despite some fiery words from President Petro, after Trump's administration revealed the punishment if Colombia did not agree, it appears that Colombia will in fact be accepting deported migrants after all. It's funny how that works.

Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

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Update on the deportation flights situation: There were two deportation flights to Guatemala City, Guatemala today, one utilising a civilian aircraft and one using a military aircraft. If we look at the flight paths of both, we can see something very interesting, the first signs of México caving into the United States' demands, but still putting up some resistance, at least for now.
First we'll start with the civilian plane. We can see that it flies a provocative flight path right along the edge of Mexican airspace for most of it's journey instead of going straight to Guatemala, just before crossing into Mexican airspace at the end. This was a very deliberate choice, and it was allowed to use Mexican airspace at the end, México gave in at the end here. Civilian aircraft carrying out deportation flights to other countries can now use México's airspace. That has now occurred.
As for military aircraft from the United States carrying out deportation flights, they still cannot use Mexican airspace. The military C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft had to fly all the way around México, just like the first two military planes to Guatemala. So México still does not allow US military aircraft to use their airspace to carry out deportation flights, at least for now.
Also, Colombia has sent one of their military transport Boeing 737 aircraft to pick up the Colombian migrants stranded in San Diego, after they made the US military aircraft turn around yesterday. So Colombia is picking up the tab here in a sense, they are having to fly their citizens home, on their own military plane, at presumably their own cost, after initially turning the US military aircraft away. I guess this is what the White House statement about "giving into all of Trump's demands" was partially about. The United States was not going to send another plane for this group of people, Colombia would have to sort it out themselves after refusing the initial plane, and Colombia will likely accept future planes, including US military aircraft, without hesitation.
If anyone is wondering what the conditions are like onboard these C-17 aircraft for the people being deported, the first images of the inside of the planes have been posted online. It appears that migrants are forced to wear masks, everyone has the same brand new blue surgical masks on. No proper seating or amenities are to be seen. All of the migrants are handcuffed as well, or about to be handcuffed, in this very picture a person is being handcuffed. Earplugs are also provided, as it's likely very loud inside the plane. Women and children are separated from the men. Armed soldiers are also onboard.

Key takeaways: México is starting to give in to the United States' demands, but still do not allow for the use of their airspace for US military aircraft carrying out deportation flights as of now, which is the key issue of contention. How long they will hold out for is anyone's guess, but I can't imagine México holding out for long, given that we can see the first signs of concessions towards the United States.
- We're back to good ole fashion "Remove the undesirables" part of fascism.
  
  we're back to it? it never left, is there any actual functional difference between this and what the US has been doing since bush (and probably earlier)? they're just being mask off with the cruelty of what deportation actually is, the lives theyve spent so hard on building up here is destroyed either way. again, obama deported over 400k in one year. the biggest difference here seems to be in its foreign policy implications
  
  There definitely feels like a difference on the ground, at least anecdotally in my neck of the woods. I've got immigrant relatives panicking more than they have before, even naturalized or conservative ones. I've never heard them talk about politics so much, I'm wondering if I can use it as a flash point to make them lefter.
  
  the panic is definitely there, i've seen more than one story about potential harvests rotting in the fields because of undocumented workers not showing up out of fear, but this does in part seem to me almost entirely driven by rhetoric and news media hyperfocusing on it. i guess my point is that the US was pretty much already deporting as many people as it could. I suppose the EO that's trying to overturn the 14th amendment may have something to do with it as well
  
  The difference is one of rhetoric and visibility, as far as I can see. Others have pointed out that deportations seem to be going at the same pace as during other, more "progressive" administrations, and while the threat of deportation has always loomed over migrants' heads, they were never as publicized by the government or celebrated by nearly half of the American populace. It used to be something that happened but never got any attention, now it's become acceptable to rat out any people you suspect of being migrants, cheer on while they're brutalized, and use them as a cudgel to negotiate with recipient countries.
  The pretense has changed, and while materially the numbers are very similar to previous administrations, the fear and precarity in migrants' minds is real psychological damage that's being done. In my opinion, the point was never to raise the deportation numbers (I think there's a logistical ceiling on that). It's to terrorize any poc into submission and "break" them mentally, socially, and economically. As with many of the atrocities being done in the world right now, we'll likely only see the consequences years from now.
  
  The cruelty very much is the point. Why did the civilian plane fly that flight path around México, wasting fuel and time? To send a message. Why is the USA using military aircraft to deport people, when using civilian aircraft is cheaper and more efficient as you can have more people onboard? Again to prove a point and send a message. It's not even about the migrants onboard in the case of the military flights, the United States and the Trump administration is just using them cynically (because they don't care about them as humans) and transporting them in poor conditions to have an excuse to fly a military plane over another country and flex their muscles, bullying other countries into acceptance.

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