Kamala Harris Overtakes Trump in First Major Poll Since Biden Exit From Race
Kamala Harris Overtakes Trump in First Major Poll Since Biden Exit From Race
Fuck polls. Go vote!
Yes, please.
Pasted my comment from elsewhere here to support the argument.
The way in which most polls are conducted is often biased towards older voters as they’re often phone calls. How many young people are answering phonecalls from unknown numbers? Also the sources pollsters get their numbers from are also often biased as well.
Here’s a report from Pew Research who make their money from polls, so this is the rosiest of takes on it https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/09/21/does-public-opinion-polling-about-issues-still-work/
Here’s a take from the Times and what they’re trying to do about it. I’ve pasted the archive.is link https://archive.is/sQ5Vi
And here’s a report from journalists that doesn’t profit from polling https://theweek.com/politics/2024-election-polls-accuracy
Seriously, polls mean nothing. If you want to know what people actually think, then look at the money. Betting odds everywhere still have trump destroying her. That's what people actually think.
*that's what people with money that bet think
Betting odds are influenced by other factors beyond the underlying probability, including behaviour of betters and where bets are placed.
Take horse racing. If a horse was given a 40% chance to win but lots of people start piling money on that horse rather than any others, this creates unbalanced risk for the bookmaker as bets on one outcome need to be balanced by bets on another to ensure the bookmaker makes money.
The bookmaker will respond to this by adjusting the odds of the popular horse upward to a higher probability, e.g. 60% And that can happen purely through market behaviour, even though nothing about the horse or the track or the race itself has changed!
So it could be that Trump is the genuine statistical favourite. But it could also be that Republicans are just more likely to gamble and place bets on their candidate than Democrats are.
Wtf... No. Don't replace polls with a weird poll proxy. Ignore all that shit and vote.
Do you think the polls don't factor into the betting odds?
You’re right, but I noticed that the odds have been shifting in Kamala’s favour. She was around +250 just a few days ago, and now she’s about +160.
Trump is still the favourite to win (-188), but a couple debates might turn that around.
A reminder, folks: That a mathematical justification must exist for polls to stay in business. They work off of weight ratios, and if one thing is more likely according to a calculation, they weight that and ratio the bets to be less profitable for those who bet on it.
Polls attempt to weight real-world data and adjust using, you guessed it, mathematical justification. In general, counting the total number of people in a room is more precise than estimating a percentage and working in some flavor text.
It tells you what the rich and corporate interests think, and badly.
LOL if a brand new candidate starts beating you within like 2 days, you might be a loser
Let's not live in a bubble. Most polls still show trump winning.
no polls from here on out should change what should be everyone's plan to get everyone out to vote
i'll be plastering the joint with voter reg forms and volunteering at the precinct on election day
On a national poll the dems need to be about 5 points ahead to be in with a shot of taking the electoral college.
This is a step in the right direction, lots of work to do though. I’m hopeful the more folks see of Harris, rather than their pre-existing largely meme originated opinions, the more they’ll like her.
I think this number is a little high, but I really want to see a blowout so this is a great goal. The number I heard was about 3%.
Maybe Harris will spank him so hard in the debate that a bunch of republicans will stay home instead of voting at all
I would be shocked if Trump does another debate.
It’s not a sprint.
Vote.
According to the latest data from Reuters/Ipsos, Harris is leading Trump in support, 44% to 42%, which falls within the survey’s three point margin of error, the latest suggestion the race between the vice president and former president will be close.
Means nothing outside of the fact that democrats are going to democrat mostly and fascists are going to fascist.
And with things being basically even, remember that fascists are much better about getting out the vote and consistently voting and most of our votes don't matter only a handful of states do.
Practically nobody who was going to vote for Biden will now not vote. In contrast, MANY people who were going to choose not to vote because their options were Biden or Trump will now make an effort to vote, because one of their options just became a much younger and more hope-inspiring option
Yep, Biden supporter here. I like Biden, but Harris is an excellent choice as well and she fully has my support. I can't imagine anyone who supported Biden not supporting Harris.
Means nothing outside of the fact that democrats are going to democrat mostly and fascists are going to fascist.
Kamala is pulling younger voters and votes of color out of the "undecided" bracket and away from third-party candidates. This is a big swing from the Biden low watermark of 37% last month.
fascists are much better about getting out the vote and consistently voting
Historically, fascists tend to win elections by launching paramilitary campaigns of harassment, hyper-policing, and mass disenfranchisement during election seasons. Mass disenfranchisement has played a big roll in flipping states like Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida red. Most famously, the Brooks Brothers Riot was critical in shutting down the recount process during the 2000 Florida election that elevated Bush to the presidency.
I would be less worried about Republicans simply turning out in droves than I am of Dem districts subjected to domestic terrorism and red state interference and intimidation of local poll workers.
Yeah as an Ohioan it’s remarkable how many otherwise liberal people just are meh about voting. People who would be democrats if they cared
Kamala is pulling younger voters and votes of color out of the “undecided” bracket and away from third-party candidates.
This is going to be the real question. Can Harris pull in black men? They trend more conservative overall. Can she pull in gen Z people that are voting age? If she can get her performance up with those two groups, in PA, MI, and AZ, then she'll likely win.
BTW - note that you talk about Biden as Biden, rather than Joe, but you refer to Harris as Kamela. This is a consistent problem with and for female politicians. Clinton get referred to as Hillary (when it is contextually clear that it's not referring to Bill). Just something to think about.
Bill Clinton said Republicans want to fall in line, Democrats want to fall in love. This is looking very promising.
He was talking about congressional staffers though.
Harris 2024. Fuck the republican traitor filth.
Yeah, don't stop the massacre in Palestine. Things are great right now, don't change a thing. Wtf is wrong with people..
Well, some people are utter fucktards who don’t understand that we’re living a trolley problem, wherein the only choice is the death of many, or the death of many more.
Yeah the dude who moved the embassy to Jerusalem, will surely help palestine
Trump will massacre the US, Ukraine, Palastine and sell you to the highest bidder.
You would rather change to the guy that's going to send even more bombs?
US Democrats at least sometimes pretend to care about having a negative image.
Until the US fixes their atrocious voting system they are stuck with choosing between "same massacre" and "worse massacre".
Wtf is wrong with people..
Is a great question for you to ask yourself a little more personally
What's your idea for stopping it ?
It's time to move on. There isn't any President who will stand in Israel's way of the horrors they're enacting in Palestine.
For now we work to prevent Trump from furthering Israel's genocide even more or committing worse here in our own country. Unless you're one of those people who genuinely believes in accelerationism which isn't going to work out the way you think it will.
You know what would stop the massacre in Palestine...a ceasefire. Hamas isn't going to let that happen, and the Palestinian population largely supports them. It's not for the US to fix anymore.
This is heartening, but we'll know better when swing state polls are out. We won't know for sure until the election is over, unfortunately.
It went from a very probable Biden loss to a Let's do This Harris!
It definitely changes the game for Democrats, though it's too early to tell how it plays out. I was really turned off to the idea of a Harris run, but her not being an old white guy might be her biggest asset. Her not being particularly charismatic might also endear her more to people, in a weird way it might make her seem more authentic, but it's way too early to tell.
That's the point. It's not real math, its propaganda
Polls are meaningless
I vividly remember Clinton leading in polls too. The polls are rigged, Don't worry about them just a vote.
The polls aren't "rigged". Jesus. This is such a dumb narrative.
You know that when something is a 90% probability, that means that 10% of the time it's not going to happen, right? The last, best poll gave Trump a 29% chance of winning, and he did win, because he outperformed in key swing states, even though he lost the popular vote by a wide margin. Then he lost both the popular vote in 2020--by a wide margin--and the key swing states.
Rigged or not, I think "Don’t worry about them just vote." is excellent advice.
I like the sentiment if not the wording here. The only poll that matters is the one conducted on 5 November. All others are just tools the campaigns use to motivate voters and direct campaigners. If you want your guy or gal to win, you need to act as if you're 2 points down in the polls and vote accordingly.
Well she was first in the polls and in the popular vote wasn't she?
Funny thing is, if Harris gets elected, the Simpsons prophecy of the first female president succeeding Trump will (kinda) come true.
Kinda come true is how prophecies usually do.
And kinda means it doesn’t come true.
Harris is going to win. Everyone has been wondering what she’s been doing as VP this entire time. She’s been preparing to step up, win this election, and be an effective President.
Before Biden exited from the race, a Jul 2 poll by Reuters/Ipsos had Harris losing to Trump by 1 point. At that time, the only Democrat polled who beat Trump was Michelle Obama, who had an 11 point advantage over the former president.
Yes. But at the same time, Project 2025, and Trump's Cheetoh-stained fingerprints all over it, are finally starting to get some popular attention, and that's not a popular idea.
Encouraging momentum that hopefully has given Dems the jolt they needed, but alot can happen between now and November.
(phew) I'm glad I don't have to go vote in November then. Thanks everyone else.
Good to see for Kamala.
Fuck national polls, show me swing states or fuck off
SSoGTFO.
Good. This means competition as there is no clear winner.
just wait til the propaganda machine turns its sights.
That smell you're smelling right now is a combination of republikkklown tears, and FEAR. (and maybe a little bit of cheap shit beer)
Make a plan how you will vote.
Impossible! I've been repeatedly informed that Joe Biden is the only one who could possibly stop Trump. Are you telling me that the party has a better chance without him?! The Russian bots were right all along??
Mark Kelly as VP would help even more.
Polls are shit and only snapshots of an overall vibe-like probability - but this is still a very, very good sign.
I hope the people that were adamant about claiming that criticising Biden and urging him to drop out was in some way "bot"-behaviour or traitorous, or just claimed by tankie accelerationists, or whatever, realise that it was more often than not really based on concern of Biden not being able to win. The energy that suddenly got unleashed in this election campaign in just a few days and these new polls clearly show, that there was something to the concerns we had with Biden.
Not saying you were stupid or something for having the perspective you had, there were arguments to be had after all, incumbency bonus and the risk of having a new candidate so close to the election were things to be considered. But from what I witnessed, the discourse got really toxic at times and from at least some people. No, not everyone that wanted to replace Biden was a useful idiot or someone acting in bad faith. There were clear reasons, and in this case, things are very much starting to look like they were valid and good reasons, too. Enthusiasm is really fucking important in election campaigns, and Biden was a black hole sucking any enthusiasm out of any potential campaign.
Of course, there's still work to be had ahead. But things are looking a lot better right now, and maybe another Trump presidency, this time with his fascist cronies being prepared fto properly enact fundamental changes for the worse, can be avoided yet. I'm still fairly pessimistic for the future, and would advise anyone to organise along radical leftist lines (IWW, SRA and local mutual help groups look to me like some of the best organisations at the moment in the US, speaking as a European outsider who may not have the full picture) and connect in networks that are prepared to react to the repression and chaos still on the horizon, but getting a few more years to do that organising while the global crises continue to march on is worth a lot.
1h old account, only posting anti-Harris comments
get lost, troll