LargePenis [he/him] @ LargePenis @hexbear.net

Posts

0

Comments

475

Joined

4 yr. ago

Here's what will happen in Lebanon in the next 24 hours or so according to what I'm hearing from resistance sources and family on the ground in Beirut:

• Israel have bombed Beirut for possibly the final time
• Hezbollah will bomb Tel Aviv and Haifa in the next hour or so, as a final middle finger and reminder to the Israeli public
• Israeli forces are already retreating from their furthest advance.
• A ceasefire will be announced tonight or tomorrow
• Hezbollah will not withdraw from the South, this is just on paper so that the Israelis can save face
• Gaza will be addressed very soon as well, the agreement is that the PA takes symbolic control of Gaza, but Hamas remains inofficially

This is a major Israeli defeat, there's no other way to look at this. They failed in disarming Hezbollah, failed in establishing a security zone along the border, failed in crippling Hezbollah's capabilities, failed in reaching the Litani River and the act of war failed to return the settlers to the north, only this ceasefire will make it happen. May Allah have mercy on Sayyid Nasrallah and all the martyrs. One thing hurts though despite my happiness about the fact that we have defeated Israel for the 3rd time after 2000 and 2006, it feels like a small betrayal of Sayyid Nasrallah's words about the complete rejection of any separation between the fronts in Gaza and Lebanon. The genocide in Gaza should've been stopped before we sign anything.

Edit: Israel are bombing Dahiya south of Beirut now, expect a final retribution from Hezbollah soon

I only post outside of the news mega when I get tagged somewhere lmao

Nah let us have at least one good space without all the drama. At this point, this website for me is just the body that carries this thread. I'm sorry but the rest of this website is just unserious and a place for the most online people in the world to bicker. One can seriously discuss Chinese monetary policy and Moldovan elections here with a serious-ish tone and a leftist spin, which doesn't happen anywhere else on the internet. We can't endanger that in any possible way. I personally have no intention at all to interact with the rest of the site, where people have full on breakdowns every single day because of a stupid debate about having a rabbit as a pet or something. I clicked on that site-wide changes thread and understood literally nothing, let's keep it that way and never change it.

I'll cook up something quickly today and DM it to you honorable chairman

I've been reading about Morocco recently, mostly inspired by Rania's anti-Morocco posting here. I have a massive blindspot when it comes to the history of the Maghreb countries, I literally know nothing about these countries outside of the Sahara issue and the Algerian Liberation War. Very interesting history, but it's hard to come out with any conclusion other than wanting to Minecraft the entire royal family. The amount of collusion and treachery is ridiculous, disgusting state on all possible levels. I'll give them points for building nice infrastructure and making Morocco a generally nice place to live in, but all that progress doesn't happen without complete submission and humiliation to Western capital. We need a Morocco COTW theme in the near future so that I can shit on Morocco even more.

4000? That's crazy, I haven't heard about this anywhere. Corporate media and institutions financed by the Western right-wing have introduced this weirdo right-wing rhetoric in our countries, it didn't exist here before this. People naturally moved between these fake ass countries until the 90s and became citizens and literally no one cared. This was super normal especially in the Arab World, but now you have people talking about the fucking Lebanese identity and the Syrian identity, when these countries were one province of numerous empires for thousands of years. Tragic developments honestly, a family like the famous Al Atrash family could just move from Syria to Egypt and become Egyptians not that long ago, now people seethe because an Iraqi family moved to Qatar and their sons play for the Qatari football team.

Xenophobia is sadly horrible in Lebanon, it has even reached my family despite my dad marrying my Syrian mom. The shit that especially far-right maronites say about Syrians and Palestinians is just disgusting. Most of it is just imported from American right-wing culture war bullshit, you have Lebanese boomers talking about building a wall on the Syrian border to stop Syrians from coming.

A guy on Iraqi Telegram went viral for trying to start a boycott campaign against businesses that employ non-Iraqis. He calls himself a far right Iraqi who is angry about Syrian and Lebanese people taking jobs from Iraqis. Literally every medium-sized restaurant has non-Iraqis working there lol. He's also mad that the football national team has a half-Pakistani player, because the advanced Semitic Iraqi race should not procreate with the lesser races. Everyone dunked on him and called him a loser, happy that this brainrot hasn't penetrated Iraq yet. His Telegram page made it to 500 followers before getting trolled to closure. Btw, I'm making an Iraq trip with my wife and the kid in the spring, you'll get a full report in the news mega when it's time.

The quality of the academies and the stability of the domestic league also matters a lot. Saudi regularly makes the World Cup with only domestic players, while Qatar won two Asian Cups in a row with only domestic players. Chinese academies are simply not producing decent players, and their league has financial meltdowns almost every single season. Something in their academy system is simply not working, statistically they should be producing at least one good player that can cut it even in a lesser European league. Every single top 15 Asian nation has at least one good player that makes it out, China can't seem to reach that stage. The Chinese League isn't worse than the Iraqi League for example, but Iraq continues producing way better players even with the instability in the country.

China are so bad considering how good they're in individual sports and they're just good at doing successful long-term projects, but they just can't seem to figure out football for some reason. They're better than North Korea, but South Korea are many levels ahead. Right now I'd say that the big 5 (Japan, South Korea, Iran, Australia and Saudi) are all better, then Iraq, Jordan, Qatar, UAE and Uzbekistan are all comfortably better. They're barely top 15 tbh, even smaller nations like Bahrain and Kuwait are as good as China. Even rising nations such as the likes of Tajikistan and Indonesia are now on China's level.

I'm very excited for this, Asia hasn't sent any truly fresh team since North Korea in 2010. Uzbekistan especially deseve this, they've been so close in the last 20 years but they always fuck it up.

Look up the UAE now, it's ridiculous, half of their team is Brazilians and random players who have lived in the UAE a few years. Indonesia are also finding any guy in the Netherlands with an Indonesian grandma and giving them citizenship. Every good player is some Dutch guy named Jan with a slave owner grandpa, it's crazy.

Some World Cup qualifying news from the best continent, Asia. Japan continue their rampage as they beat China today, while Saudi Arabia continue their woeful form with a loss against Indonesia. Iraq beat Oman away, big result for Iraq. Iraq's chances for a first World Cup since 1986 look very good after Jordan's fumble vs Kuwait. Uzbekistan look set for their first World Cup appearence after beating Based Korea today, while Bad Korea drew against Palestine. My projection of qualified teams after this round is: Iran, Uzbekistan, South Korea, Iraq, Japan, Australia. Saudi Arabia should make it through the playoffs, but they look like shit. UAE have picked some nice form recently, so I think they will be the last team to make it from Asia.

Israel killed Celine Haidar yesterday, a player of the Lebanese Women's National Team. FIFA member Israel is actively killing international players of other FIFA members

This site is sometimes so funny outside of our beautiful news mega, I literally understand nothing about what is happening outside of this cozy thread. It's always some drama about some extremely online thing that takes over the entire site and causes half of the users to quit.

Putin's words lost all meaning a long time ago. It's very obvious that the only type of escalation that Russia is currently committed to is within the borders of Ukraine, so even if they escalate now it won't go further than a bridge or a dam across the Dnieper. He's not willing to do anything that jeopardises progress on the Ukrainian front. Despite all the teasing and encroachment from the West, it's still neolibs that have the final word in Russia, and those neolibs live in a world where Russia sells gas and oil to the EU a day after a peace agreement is signed in Ukraine. Ukraine invaded old Russian territory using western weapons and western tanks, still nothing happened. What options does he even have to escalate? Sell missiles to the Houthis? No because Saudi Arabia are still his besties. Give Iran more weapons? Already happening. Strike a US asset in Europe? Will literally never happen.

The US and their dogs allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles doesn't change anything. Russia under Putin are committed to deescalation until the Ukraine war is wrapped up, and Ukraine's biggest issues are in Ukraine itself. Hitting an oil refinery in Rostov won't stop Russian advances in Donetsk. Those strikes might affect Russian supply lines a bit, but Russia has a lot of options with different paths to take to reach the front.

Russians have entered the central districts of Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar and Kurakhove, all within 3-4 days. Insane pace compared to just a few months ago. All three advances will completely reshape the upcoming year of the war in Ukraine. Taking eastern Kupiansk will collapse the north Oskol front for Ukraine and force a withdrawal from a significant chunk of land. The fall of Kurakhove will force a withdrawal from south Donetsk into less fortified regions, which will most likely mean that Russia enters Dnipro Oblast for the first time in early 2025. And the fall of Chasiv Yar means that Russia will control the highest points in the whole Donetsk region and will open up an opportunity to basically roll down from the hills of Chasiv Yar into the Kramatorsk - Konstantinivka line. We're firmly in the opening stages of a complete collapse of the AFU now, the way that the Kupiansk offensive has happened was unthinkable a few months ago. Russians just drove like 5km deep into Ukrainian lines with basically no resistance and could then reinforce that opening quite easily. All that is happening while Russia have seized border villages with no resistance in Chernihiv and Kharkov Oblasts, and have also started a new offensive in Zaporozhye/Donetsk close to the strong fortified towns of Velika Novosilka, Gulaypole and Orikhiv. Disastrous situation for the AFU.

The Haka in the NZ parliament video has been quite viral on Arab social media circles in the past two days, and it has generated some pretty interesting reactions that I will share here.

Reaction type number 1: why? The most common reaction is people being completely unaware of the history of Maori peoples in NZ, so they share or comment on the video in an attempt to understand the context of the video. Many comments ridiculing the thing, but most were just curious about who these people are.

Reaction type number 2: damn this is cool. Many thought it was cool and that it shows that Maoris are brave people that are not afraid to capture the white man's institution to do their dance and show their culture.

Reaction type number 3: this is a defeated people. This type of reaction was the most interesting in my opinion, because people made a lot of comparisons to Palestinians inside Israel who participate in elections and have representation in the Knesset. It was a lot of "is this really it?", this is a defeated people whose culture and way of life was mostly decimated by colonisers, and now they're standing in the white man's institutions wearing the white man's clothing and doing song and dance. I have to emphasise that most of these reactions actually came from a place of love for native people, but they saw the Haka in this particular context as a sign of humiliation, not strength. One guy wrote that Israel might let three Palestinians do a dabke in the Knesset in 2050 as they sign a law that deports all remaining Arabs in Greater Israel.

I think that your northern arrow is a bit too ambitious, a more realistic scenario for the upcoming few months is that Russia consolidates the eastern portion of Kupiansk and don't cross the Oskol River. They would then push down the Oskol until Borova and collapse the whole Oskol front. A latter stage would be pushing down from Russian territory towards Veliki Burluk and then down the western parts of the Oskol again until Kupiansk proper, mostly to keep supply lines open and avoid a repeat of late 2022 where they overextended into the Kharkov countryside. Vovchansk is way too valuable as a firebag where they can keep FABbing good Ukrainian units, and there's too much open exposed ground there. Ukrainian units in Kharkov are also still well-equipped and not as exhausted as in the Donbass, Russia can't risk too much there.