Bulletins and News Discussion from November 11th to November 17th, 2024 - Chapo? Like, the President-elect of Mozambique? - COTW: Mozambique

Thank you to @carpoftruth@hexbear.net for covering my position as Supreme Dictator of the Goddamn News while I was moving and getting set up in my new home in a top secret Kremlin-funded bunker five hundred feet below the ground. Our regularly scheduled programming returns this week.

On October 9th, Daniel Chapo won the Mozambique general election with about 70% of the vote. Chapo is the head of FRELIMO, the Marxist-Leninist party of Mozambique's liberation, which fought an internal anti-communist resistance called RENAMO which was backed by Rhodesia and apartheid South Africa; Frelimo won in 1975. However, as the USSR fell, Frelimo began to allow elections inside Mozambique, and has ruled the country with significant majorities in each election ever since.

The main opposition party inside Mozambique is Podemos, which is led by Venancio Mondlane, a former member of Renamo and trained inside the USA. He alleges that his polling figures predicted a majority win for him, not Frelimo, and has accused Chapo of electoral fraud. There have been the usual slogans about how they yearn for freedom. The EU, of course, "witnessed irregularities." As @WilsonWilson@hexbear.net has pointed out, Mozambique has massive undeveloped gas fields and is outsourcing the development process to France, Norway, the UK, and the USA, while mysterious Islamist groups have popped up to cause chaos in the exact regions which have the gas, slowing the process of actually developing those gas fields. Overall, it appears to be a cookie-cutter colour revolution attempt by the imperial core designed to install a comprador for cheaper resources. Its proximity to BRICS+ member South Africa may also be significant, noting the colour revolution in Bangladesh earlier this year exerting influence near India and China.

Protestors have been battling against the police and government since late October, resulting in dozens of deaths and injuries as well as massive disruption, as the government has intermittently blocked access to the internet and social media. As of today, calm appears to be returning, with border crossings beginning to reopen.

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1.6K comments

The US and their dogs allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles doesn't change anything. Russia under Putin are committed to deescalation until the Ukraine war is wrapped up, and Ukraine's biggest issues are in Ukraine itself. Hitting an oil refinery in Rostov won't stop Russian advances in Donetsk. Those strikes might affect Russian supply lines a bit, but Russia has a lot of options with different paths to take to reach the front.
- Normally, I'd agree, but this is the most explicit red line that has ever been crossed. There must be some kind of response, or else Putin's words lose all meaning.
  
  Putin's words lost all meaning a long time ago. It's very obvious that the only type of escalation that Russia is currently committed to is within the borders of Ukraine, so even if they escalate now it won't go further than a bridge or a dam across the Dnieper. He's not willing to do anything that jeopardises progress on the Ukrainian front. Despite all the teasing and encroachment from the West, it's still neolibs that have the final word in Russia, and those neolibs live in a world where Russia sells gas and oil to the EU a day after a peace agreement is signed in Ukraine. Ukraine invaded old Russian territory using western weapons and western tanks, still nothing happened. What options does he even have to escalate? Sell missiles to the Houthis? No because Saudi Arabia are still his besties. Give Iran more weapons? Already happening. Strike a US asset in Europe? Will literally never happen.
- I'm also sure that Russia have made preparations for such a decision, and considered it when choosing to escalate in their large aerial bombardment of Ukraine last night. A response by Ukraine and their US/NATO backers was to be expected, and ATACMS usage on Russian soil is one such response that was quite likely.
- The US and their dogs allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles doesn't change anything.
  The issue is that it isnt usa allowing ukraine to do deep strikes. This is allowing usa to do deep strikes from ukraine.
  ukraine has done plenty of deep strikes with drones already but ukraine is incapable of using ATACMS without american targeting data and technicians. it is one thing for usa to send ukraine weapons that they use but in this case usa is supplying the weapons aiming them into Russian territory and pulling the trigger.
  That is why this red line is a big deal. it is america directly attacking Russia.
- They will never hit enough in Russia to make a military or economic difference, or it would be stepping fully across Russia's red lines rather than stepping one toe and stepping back. The best that can be hoped for in that department is more gloating. As if NATO needs an excuse or an event to gloat.
  Would not be surprised if more stuff like this leads to Russia escalating to electrical infrastructure attacks like post-Kerch bombing.

1582 comments