LargePenis [he/him] @ LargePenis @hexbear.net

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4 yr. ago

First time I predict something correctly on this forum, big moment for me. It was so obvious that it's an Afghanistan level collapse the moment Maarat Al Numan and Khan Sheikhoun fell

Five provincial capitals in 5 days lmao

Aleppo last Sunday

Hama yesterday

Suwayda, Daraa and Deir Ez-Zor today

Okay, I've made a shitty map of the current situation at around 23:00 Syrian time on the 6th of December. This is based on Telegram news mostly and probably very inaccurate in the south, but the situation is very fluid there. Arrows represent current movements and upcoming movements.

This would be an excellent solution for the Shrine, I hope it goes through.

As a gesture of goodwill, the SAA will withdraw all the way to the Russian Naval Base in Tartous

Druze militants in Suwayda have taken the whole region, no sign of the SAA there too. Rural areas in Quneitra and Daraa under previous reconciliation agreements have also fallen. Areas in Rif Dimashq including Qalamoun have also fallen. SAA have also handed over the entire desert to the SDF and vanished. It's just funny at this point, hoping a for quick bloodfree entry of HTS into Damascus at this point, there's no point in delaying the inevitable. I called my cousin who lives on a farm in Rif Dimashq and he was just laughing, people aren't even worried anymore.

SAA retreating from the entire south and the desert. It's officially joever. They'll do a last stand in Damascus, then flee to the coast and make their little Alawite Abkhazia.

9

Yeah, the government is pretty much gone, it doesn't exist in a meaningful way anymore. Who expected an Afghanistan situation in Syria, crazy developments honestly.

I don't believe Assad will fall and he'll probably get his territory back eventually

The vibes I'm getting from Syria are the complete opposite tbh, it feels over this time. There's no energy anymore. The economic situation and the pure repression are just too much to overcome at this point, conscripts and even ideological fighters are too disillusioned to care.

When it comes to Iran and their ideological project, I don't know what to say. As of today, I'm operating under an analytical framework that says that the Axis of Resistance breathed its final breath in that Israeli strike on Nasrallah's bunker in Harat Hreik on that cursed Friday on the 27th of September. The Axis was fatally wounded four years ago in the drone strike on the Baghdad Airport Highway, but the final deadly strike was on Nasrallah. There's no coherent Axis anymore, Iran has simply proved that it's not a reliable equal partner to Hamas, nor to Hezbollah, nor to Assad now, and they won't be a reliable partner to Ansarallah whenever the Saudis do their own surprise Aleppo-style attack in the future. Soleimani was Putin, he was the one with the balls to launch full scale wars to protect his interests, Khamenei and the libs that took over the Iranian state aren't as decisive. Like you said, inaction is the theme of the future. Biden represents inaction, Khamenei represents inaction, the whole EU represents inaction. There are just three adventurers left in the world, Netanyahu, MBZ and Putin. Sisi will see the Nile dry without doing anything about Sudan and Ethiopia on his borders. The Algerians will see Morocco take the whole Sahara while putting out strong statements. The EU will see their entire industry and economy collapse while they're busy with the charging port standards in the EU. Xi will see 50 American bases in Taiwan while he privatises utilities for efficiency. It's almost hopeless, but imagine how hopeless a Sunni jihadist was last week. Gaza is razed to the ground, Assad and the SDF controlling almost all of Syria, the Saudis doing raves near Mecca, every single Jihadi project buried in the ground. A week later and his entire cause is revived and thriving.

Alawites will carve up some Abkhazia-style Russian protectorate on the coast in the end. Jolani's HTS are more like 2021 Taliban, they aren't interested in ruining their international relationships and they're definitely not committing a genocide of the entire Latakia-Tartous coast. Regular Syrian shias will just go to Iraq though, there will be an exodus very soon. Damascus and Aleppo elites will grow their beards, send their sons and daughters to Dubai and rebrand themselves, tbh I don't care what happens to them. I also don't believe in any Sunni uprising scenario in Iraq as well. The situation in 2014 was charged when it came to sectarianism, and there was already a sunni protest movement against that shithead Nouri Al Maliki that ISIS infiltrated and took over. Sunnis in Iraq are now enjoying their best period since the 80s. Their cities are prospering, the security situation is fantastic and the economy is doing well for them. People overestimate the willingness of random people to fight for any cause, there isn't an appetite for fighting anymore in Iraq, not even the Shias are that excited about Syria anymore. I'm only worried about the Sayyida Zaynab shrine in Damascus, Jihadists would love to demolish it. I hope that the new calmer Jolani makes cooler heads prevail and avoid any unnecessary bloodshed for that.

I don't disagree with all that, but this literally means nothing anymore to a random Sunni Arab villager in rural Aleppo who gets 8 hours of electricity on a good day, 25$ in pension and whose sons are either dead or refugees in Belgium. We keep focusing on these bigger pictures, which is theoretically the smart thing to do, but people are tired comrade. The misery of the Baath government has made everyone indifferent or outright hostile. And what Axis is there left? Iran since Soleimani's death is the most useless ally you can have. Nasrallah and by extension Hezbollah are dead, it's over. Hamas are dead. There is no Axis, there is no united Pan-Shia anti-imperialist front, there's nothing left anymore. That's the bitter truth. Our finest young men and our greatest leaders in Palestine and Lebanon are gone. The Axis became a hierarchy where Iran allowed Haniyeh and Hamas to be eaten, then allowed Nasrallah and Hezbollah to be eaten, and now they will allow Assad and Syria to be eaten. All that so that they keep storing dollars in Dubai banks without risking anything. The Axis was solidified the day Al Muhandis and Soleimani were in the same trenches in Aleppo and Mosul, and it died the day Trump bombed their car.

I don't feel anything about the collapse of the SAA in Hama and possibly further. It's a rotting government, even a particularly vulnerable minority like the Ismaili Shias in Salamiyah are seeing the writing on the wall and handed over their town to HTS today. People in the left anti-imperialist camp are missing too much context in their steadfast defence of Assad and the government. Yeah most minorities would rather live under Assad, that's obvious, but it's frankly a horrible government and most people are just indifferent at this point. I expected horrors to be committed when HTS took Aleppo, but they are behaving better than the SAA and NDF thugs so far honestly. It's very hard to be motivated to fight for the rotting Baath government, what does a vision of the future even look like at this point? Back to 2010, where you get arrested if you get caught praying when you have lunch break? It's psychologically over for the Baath government, their last 15 years have ranged from mediocre to disastrous in people's minds, and the natural reaction is that people either openly welcome HTS or become indifferent towards HTS.

A little report from Aleppo, I called my aunt yesterday. She stayed in Aleppo, more specifically Hayy Salah Al Deen in the western parts of Aleppo. Life is pretty normal according to her, the Jihadists are actually behaving well in their interactions with civilians. Shops are open, but there's some confusion about currency and prices, because fighters from Idlib mainly carry Turkish Liras instead of Syrian Liras, so all the prices are unstable and people are confused about what to do with their money. They distributed free bread yesterday, which was neatly organised. Electricity has somehow gotten better.

Mayadeen is good for providing an Axis of Resistance viewpoint, but too much cope overload sometimes.

Hmmmm

Hama is falling, the road to Homs is now fully open.

Hama will fall by tomorrow morning, it's totally deserted by the SAA and the NDF, even the Russians have left. The upcoming battle of Homs next week will decide the entire fate of the Syrian government, it's officially joever for the entire state if there's another massive collapse there.

Haniyeh's death in Tehran was the real wake up call, the fact that Iran did fucking nothing after that proved to me that they're sell outs. I still had some little feeling of faith after the missile attack on Israel, but all that has fully evaporated now.