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1 yr. ago

  • I'm multi-screening about five different media sources and am letting you know that The New York Times just updated its live presidential forecast to predict a 67% chance of a Trump victory.

    The day started out with the NYT in a toss-up position, but as the count has continued, it has started to slowly creep towards Trump.

    Let's remember that many votes are yet to be counted and that in 2016, this same tracker at The New York Times was predicting a Clinton victory with 95% certainty.

    link

  • Mate, things are gloomy enough right now without this type of accusatory comment.

    Everyone has voted, the die is cast, if we lose everyone left of centre will be in mourning for a long time.

    There's a lot I could say about your position and opinions but I just don't think this is the place.

    I'd encourage you to think carefully about the type of commenter you want to be in this very troubled time.

  • Predictably, musk is pushing the "voter fraud in pensylvania" narrative.

    Thousands of accounts on social media platform X have been sharing this video as evidence of the "fraud" in Pennsylvania.

    But the footage is actually an old and widely debunked video of election workers in Arizona that was filmed in 2022 ahead of the US midterms.

    Reuters has previously reported that what the video actually shows is a "routine procedure to install memory cards into voter machines".

    Despite this, the video has already been viewed hundreds of thousands of times and reposted extensively.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/us-presidential-election-live-updates-kamala-harris-donald-trump/104546228?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web#live-blog-post-132301

  • This map happens in about 15% of simulations

    I'm not being critical of your analysis but I think this is a fairly meaningless statement?

    If you considered all maps with any significant probability, and collated / weighted their results, the outcome would be 50:50 - the same as what every pollster has been telling us for the last several weeks.