fine_sandy_bottom @ fine_sandy_bottom @lemmy.federate.cc

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853

Joined

1 yr. ago

True but you have to start counting sooner or later. I guess you could wait until the last ballot is cast in the last state.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/us-presidential-election-live-updates-kamala-harris-donald-trump/104546228?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web#live-blog-post-132409

This clip talks through the swings towards Trump in a bunch of demographics. It's just bizarre.

For example college educated women have swung towards trump. What the fuck.

Counting before polls close would influence voting. Even if it were "secret" you could publish fake leaks. It would devolve into a shit show of misinformation, even though we do have that already.

That's true but I think this statement is an indicator that this point in time was always going to be the gloomiest.

If you're looking at which states have been called then there may not be any surprises, but things like the NYT needle are following trends in states which are yet to be called.

I'm multi-screening about five different media sources and am letting you know that The New York Times just updated its live presidential forecast to predict a 67% chance of a Trump victory.

The day started out with the NYT in a toss-up position, but as the count has continued, it has started to slowly creep towards Trump.

Let's remember that many votes are yet to be counted and that in 2016, this same tracker at The New York Times was predicting a Clinton victory with 95% certainty.

link

Yeah I think that's the plan. IDK enough about states & timezones to say exactly when but surely we're approaching that time.

My despair is through the roof right now. What a mess.

I quite literally think I might have half a diazepam to get me through the next 6 hours or so.

Mate, things are gloomy enough right now without this type of accusatory comment.

Everyone has voted, the die is cast, if we lose everyone left of centre will be in mourning for a long time.

There's a lot I could say about your position and opinions but I just don't think this is the place.

I'd encourage you to think carefully about the type of commenter you want to be in this very troubled time.

Oh god. It's leaning the wrong way. I'm not going to create an NYT account so I can watch it.

Predictably, musk is pushing the "voter fraud in pensylvania" narrative.

Thousands of accounts on social media platform X have been sharing this video as evidence of the "fraud" in Pennsylvania.

But the footage is actually an old and widely debunked video of election workers in Arizona that was filmed in 2022 ahead of the US midterms.

Reuters has previously reported that what the video actually shows is a "routine procedure to install memory cards into voter machines".

Despite this, the video has already been viewed hundreds of thousands of times and reposted extensively.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/us-presidential-election-live-updates-kamala-harris-donald-trump/104546228?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web#live-blog-post-132301

The ABC's map is pretty good (live map):

More women fewer men

Also younger voters:

• 18-29 +3%
• 30-44 +2%
• 45-64 -4%
• 65+ -1%

Just gonna put all my stuff under this comment so I don't spam this thread.

The Australian Broadcasting Commission's live blog is pretty great:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-06/us-presidential-election-live-updates-kamala-harris-donald-trump/104546228

God this hurts to watch right now. There's too many data points to comprehend but too few for commentators to tell me the trend.

This map happens in about 15% of simulations

I'm not being critical of your analysis but I think this is a fairly meaningless statement?

If you considered all maps with any significant probability, and collated / weighted their results, the outcome would be 50:50 - the same as what every pollster has been telling us for the last several weeks.

Wow.

The Australian Public broadcaster (also called ABC) has live coverage:

https://youtu.be/bnlG_x_4rqg

That's true, but I was referring to what stunts Musk might pull during the count / certification to tip it to Trump.