'There Will Be Blood': JPMorgan Hikes Odds of Trump-Triggered Recession to 60%.

All we need now is a massive man made natural disaster to strike to make it another great depression. Luckily there isn't any terrible climate related issue that's on the verge of causing a catastrophe or anything.
- That, and good thing there isn't a new pandemic brewing in birds and livestock.
  
  Thank god 80% of the bees we use to pollinate all our food didn't die this last month...

So repubs are alientating themselves from their traditional business base too. That leaves what? Nut jobs in rvs covered in trump signs?

I'd love to see donvict, fElon, Lutnick, Thiel, Vance and especially Navarro forced to live in poverty for a while.

Trump pulled a Mario on the billionaires lmao 🤣
And y'all complaining

60% chance of recession, 40% chance of a depression. “The Greatest Depression”
- A golden age is coming!
  Even if things just to recover to where they started trumsk will claim it as a giant win.
- Tremendous, really. Like nothing ever seen before.

Even if Trump removes every tariff a recession is almost certainly coming. Short to longer term planning, hiring, building, etc will certainly slow down and that kind of things is widespread. People lose jobs, people don't get hired, people choose not to start a business or invest money in the USA, etc.
- The MAGA Nazis are fully embracing AI, and full automation is on its way. All the tech exists right now to fully automate every fast food outlet in America. The could have the supplies stored in robotic warehouses, robotically loaded into self-driving trucks, unloaded into the restaurants robotically, prepared robotically, and delivered to the customer, who ordered it on an app or kiosk. All without a single human touching it anywhere along the way.
  Corporations will become wildly profitable with greatly reduced cost of labor and related labor issues (HR, benefits, discrimination, etc), but the additional result will be the loss of millions of entry level and unskilled jobs. These are the jobs where young people learn how to exist in the workplace, where households can have a second income, where people can become managers and make decent livings, etc. And that is only one industry. Every single industry will be impacted by automation and AI, with an enormous net loss of jobs, leading to a permanent unemployment rate in the double digits, possibly as high as 30-40%, or even higher. The impact on the government and our economy of the loss of income tax revenue from those lost jobs is a whole other conversation altogether.
  What will happen to all those unemployed people? There seems to be only two solutions: Universal Basic Income, or reducing the population by the permanent unemployment rate. It's pretty predictable which solution each party would choose, and also pretty predictable how they would choose to accomplish their solution.
  
  To put this in terms Civ VI players will understand:
  MAGA wants a synthetic technocracy
  If Europe follows the Estonian model it will be a digital democracy.
  China is doing optimization imperative.
  
  UBI is never going to come to the united states. Whats reasonably to going to happen is an uprising and the brutal suppression of it by the police state a la Tianenmen square style or even worse. US have done this against people of color multiple times in its history. This time others will join as well.
  
  There’s only profit to be made if people have money to spend.
  
  Yep. Not sure why you are getting downvoted.
  
  Not to forget the ability to let middle management go when there are no workers to be managed as well as the people for low level optimization and planning.
  This is a major thing and the reactions are unfortunately downvotes.
  
  China is likely to get AI before the US does. Innovation here is slowing down.

It's 100% they are just too scared to say that
- You can't say anything is 100% with a chaotic and erratic president. There's always a chance that Trump will undo everything next week and things will stabilise for a short while. That chance might be very low, but it effectively invalidates 100% prediction.
  
  I'm afraid you're wrong here actually. Being arbitrary and mercurial means no one will risk investing in the US, as policies may be created or undone at any moment. The only way this goes away is simply that he goes away. The risk is what is creating the certainty here.
  
  There's also an even more remote chance Republicans in Congress grow a spine and take away Trump's ability to set tariffs or the Supreme Court rules the "emergency" invalid.
  
  Ok, 95%. Trump undoing things doesn't actually help "confidence in the market" though, it might even cause or chaos shorter term.

The blood is on gop hands and any billionaires backing him
- And nothing gets better until billionaires bleed
- And the people who voted for him. And the people that didn't vote.

In case you haven't seen it there has been blood all over the place for years

The Federal Reserve now projects -3.7% GDP growth in Q1 2025. The 2008 recession was -2.6%, and covid was -2.2, for comparison.
- Consider this too...Q1 ended on March 31st. They are predicting that drop before all this tariff shit got started.
  Hell, Biden was president for 20 of the 90 days in that quarter.
  
  So you're saying it's Bidens fault! /s
- That... Doesn't seem good if I'm being totally honest
  
  -3.7% so far.
- Do you have a source? Closest of what I can find is GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow . But it is neither an official estimate nor from the federal reserve.
  
  And note that the Atlanta Fed model has been widely misinterpreted. Imports have surged in anticipation of tariffs, which skews the model (i.e. the exports-imports factor in GDP).
  
  That is the federal reserve. It's composed of 12 district banks and that's one of them.

How was Thursday and Friday not a recession? I lost > 10% of my 401k in 2 days.
It took 4 years to get to where it was since I stopped contributing right after the 2020 panic. 4 years of happily let my money do what it should, BAM wiped out in 2 fucking days.
- I’ve Lost 15% since this shitshow of president started fucking with things.
  
  Came here to note that S&P has been down over 16% since the clown took the WH and the circus started back up again.
- 10% so far unfortunately.
  Recessions officially require a slowdown of an economy over a longer period of time. Usually the stock market has nothing to do with it, though it can be a canary in the coal mine for it.
  A recession has more to do with unemployment rate rising, negative GDP growth and consumer spending indexes falling.
  Essentially it's just a fancy way of saying the economy is slowing down in every category.
  The stock market is a rich person's playground in this day and age mostly.
  
  The stock market is a rich person’s playground in this day and age mostly.
  Unfortunately, if they do poorly, THAT definitely "trickles down".
  
  it's not an exact measure, but the rule of thumb for a recession is 2 quarters of negative growth
- Get your 401k out of stocks for now. Most plans have money market or other options you can exchange for.
  
  That's the dumbest advice ever! That's how you lose all your money. Recession is the perfect time to buy even more stocks and shares. Don't get out, get in!
  
  Panic drop out of the market after stocks went down some percent, great advice.
  Just do nothing and keep your rates (or however US 401k works).
  Time in the market beats timing the market

Not long until MAGAs call the stock market woke.
- Alternate TRUTH market incoming
  
  They already had indexes which avoided 'dei' companies.... Don't ask me how I know..

So much for the revolution being bloodless, huh?

Trump is gonna try his best to make the best depression ever.
- He heard "great depression" and took it as a challenge
  
  Yuge Depression. Like sinkhole levels.
  
  “great depression”
  Well... at least we know now what he meant by make America "great" again.
  
  Trump Depression isn't only for Tiffany
- It’s like he is purposely doing this to punish Americans for not reelecting him in 2020.
  
  Krasnov is doing it because he is a Russian asset and this hurts Russia's enemy
  
  I think it's worse than that. I think he legitimately thinks this is a good idea, and the sycophants that surround him are too afraid to oppose him.
- Make Depression Great Again
  
  Make Great Depression Again
  FTFY

If they say 60% odds when it's obviously 100%, how does one go about making money on the spread?
- I think the reason it's not 100% is that Trump could say "lol jk guys I'm not actually going to destroy the world economy to own the libs" or Congress could theoretically stop it (lol) but yeah I think it's probably optimistic because even if the tariffs don't go into effect the chaos caused by them is already happening. I work in chemical manufacturing and the outlook seems very bleak, but most of my coworkers are Trumpists so they're just in denial about how bad it's going to be while management is tiptoeing around the fact that they're already laying people off because of Trump's expected antics.
- The reason is that Trump can reverse the tariffs tomorrow. Or a court could freeze them if it rules trump acted illegally.
  But it does seem that they might be doing some serious insider trading on the market's volatility. Its funny that until 2024 this was illegal. But the supreme court wanted this. So here we are.
  
  Even if he would reverse the tariffs, the rest of the world is tired of this shit! The US showed that they are no reliable partner and always 4 years away from a possible circus.
- There's a 'Recession this year?' market on kalshi that is somehow also giving about 60% odds. I'm feeling good about my $20 bet.
- Forex? If you have USD, you could change it to EUR for example. You could also buy bonds or crypto or whatever, though US bonds might be falling too.
  Personally I just keep all my money in funds and robo-advisors. This way there's someone whose job it is to allocate the money, and they hear the news and can act faster than you.
  
  This is against what crypto bros are saying, but from what I see that whenever stock is crashing so is Bitcoin.
  
  Are you certain that the samething isn't going to happen to foreign currencies? I feel like the U.S. enters recession, the global economy enters recession.
  Are there any economies that are truly self-sufficient?
- Traditional wisdom says bonds go up when stocks go down, but I don't even trust T bills right now. Those are the most reliable security there is. Well, were.

When we are almost all living in shacks with nothing left MAGA will be telling us we are better off.
- "Man if it's this bad under Trump imagine how bad it would have been under Kamala!" Or "At least we kept men out of women's sports!" I think people who think this will impact Trump's popularity at all with his core base are delusional and haven't been to a Trump district. These people will never abandon him. Their devotion to Trump is like a religion. Even if Trump said Christianity is a false religion and all the Christians are stupid for voting for him a decent number of these morons would keep supporting him because everyone is a Trump whisperer and everything he says that they like is true and everything he says that they don't like is a joke or trolling. There is no God but Trump, and Fox is His Prophet.
  
  You know, your comment just made me wonder, what happened to this Q bullshit? I'm gladly not American, so I sincerely have no clue.
- "I'm so glad things are going back to the way they should be!" -my hyper-republican boomer coworker, this afternoon
  
  "Jesus lived in poverty and he did alright." - A (thankfully former) coworker who disagreed with my assertion that minimum wage should be livable.
  Jesus was also murdered by his government, Ian! That's not what I'd call alright!
  
  The people are just garbage. The worst kind of ignorant shit that plagues this country.
  
  lots of weirdos who are happy that certain groups get fucked a little more than they will
  
  I really hope your coworker is in their late 50s or 60s so they get the full dose of 'the way things should be'

God this is bleak.
I'm not even in the US. This is a global recession.
"[Consumers] are not even going to the grocery store and paying more for vegetables because there's none available from Mexico, or going to Whole Foods, for example, and finding the big sections of fresh fruit are being shut down. They haven't really felt the full impact [yet], and they're already saying something isn't right," Bethune says.
It sounds like shit is going to get real, really quick. As in next week?
Trump isn't going to back down either - good or bad he always just doubles down. If Mexican producers stop selling to the US he's just going to go to war right?
As an aside, I had been wondering what the US gov is going to do with all that tariff revenue... but now it seems kinda clear that consumers will be buying a lot less stuff, so there will be less income tax revenue anyway.
- Maybe that's the plan? Start a trade war that will inevitably lead to a real war? It sets a lot more precedent for the lean on all of the marshal law type powers he's chasing after.
  
  The U.S. does make a lot of money at war. Kinda makes you wonder why few of Leon's federal spending cuts have been in the DOD? 🤔

Maybe I am stupid but I feel like things like this will be looked at as silly in the future because clearly we have already hit the recession. The only question that we have left at this point is if it will evolve into a full blown depression.

Blood for the blood God.
No one cares about rich people losing money. If they were smart, they would have sold their stocks when Krasnov was sworn in.
He was already talking about fucking shit up with tariffs while campaigning.
- Smart people don't sell stocks and shares when markets crash. They buy instead.
  
  So much fud out there apparently. Time will tell how bad this gets, but this is pretty darn bad.

I've been putting off making my Roth contribution because it's gonna lose value. Tried to add the cash to my portfolio the other day over the web interface. It wouldn't let me. Had to call and the broker asked me if I was sure. Yeah, it's for my tax return dude I don't like it either.

If this is what it takes for republicans to never hold even so much as a broken toilet seat, well it sure does suck harder’n a black fucking hole… but it seems this is how we have to learn.
- I wouldn't bet on Republicans learning a goddamn thing. They've had plenty of time and examples and theyre still fucking stupid, obviously given the situation we're in.
  Best you can hope is nonvoters realize they've been idiots and decide to not be idiots anymore.
- If they somehow blame Biden for this or OBAMA, we need reconsider human evolution.
  
  Trump has already blamed Biden for the "shitty economy" he inherited.
  
  It is truly amazing what people have pinned on Obama. I have seen several people that blamed Obama's lax border security for 9/11 happening and I really do wish I was joking.
- Y'all vote in a republican whenever you're ready to crash the economy and lose your property to the profiteers buying it for pennies. It's really something, how it's like clockwork.
  
  By “y’all”, are you referring to every person that voted this election, or only those that didn’t vote Harris? Y’all seem to be of the impression that Americans is a monolith, and y’all ought to know better than that.