Yglesias has reached the stage of acceptance
Yglesias has reached the stage of acceptance
244 评论
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He should be more worried about what his precious America will do to prevent that Chinese century. It won't be pretty for the rest of us
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At the end, the Soviet Union had enough nukes to wipe out all mammalian life on the planet (and that's a conservative estimate). But when they finaly collapsed, there was no vindictive strike. Nobody tried to close the book on human history.
In the same position, could the United States ever do the same, when it's own end comes knocking?
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The soviets were the good guys so that makes sense.
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I think the US is led by people who are a lot more vindictive though
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Musk ans Trump would totally wipe the earth if they think they're going to be better after that
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The United States and the USSR both endured(/ing) what could vaguely be described as an Oligarchic coup, which IMO are not likely scenarios to result in a vindictive nuclear first-strike. They are both still imperial powers and too far away for direct conflict. Continuing the dance of proxy wars is still preferable to any nuclear exchange. There are not any countries that are likely to put the US into a China/Taiwan or Russia/Ukraine situation, so the US will probably continue to decline/collapse without the likelyhood of a vindictive nuclear first-strike.
I do have to admit, Trump is a bit of a wild-card, so he might do one anyways, but the ruling class itself would not be interested.
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I think the bigger threat would be from whatever military figure happens to be standing next to the button in the aftermath of an all-at-once collapse of legitimacy. I've heard stories that evangelical types anxious for apocalypse and rapture like getting assigned to nuclear silos... while I'm not sure how accurate that is, the thought gives me pause.
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The current oligarchs? Possibly. Plus I just don't see American power and wealth decline in a significant way anytime soon legitimately althought the material conditions for the average americans will.... But they sure will perceive that their power is declining and idk tbh these people are spite filled. Not thinking in terms of nukes but other means of fuckery
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Idk but Hitler probably would have and unfortunately he is not unique
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244 评论