Bulletins and News Discussion from May 12th to May 18th, 2025 - Nuclear War Averted (Hopefully)!

Image is from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' recent article on Kashmir.

It looks like the spat between India and Pakistan could be dying down, due to a new ceasefire. As of the time of me writing this paragraph, it seems both sides want to maintain it (despite some reports of violations here and there).

Both sides have declared victory, which is completely expected given their mutual political parties and nationalist histories. It's a little harder to say which side has actually won, as both sides seem to have managed to shoot down aircraft and hit military bases. India has, in my opinion, had the more embarrassing moments, but international conflicts aren't cringe compilations. I feel no good-will towards Pakistan's comprador government, but it is at least nice to see Modi knocked down a few pegs. Regardless of the final technical victor, it's obvious that - if the ceasefire is maintained - who won are the hundreds of millions of people who won't have to live in fear of dying in nuclear hellfire.

This conflict is a good example of what multipolarity will truly entail. Countries that have been previously limited in their nationalist ambitions by American pressure will now take opportunities to revolt, sometimes against America itself, and sometimes against other countries in their regional neighbourhood. It's also why, as communists, our goals do not stop at multipolarity; it is merely the establishing act of a new era of agitation against peripheral and semi-peripheral capitalist countries that are forming powerful national bourgeoisie classes as the international American capitalists are forced away.

Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

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373 comments

[reuters] Kurdish PKK disbands and ends Turkey insurgency, PKK-linked agency says
https://archive.ph/zvf6v
i didn't see this one coming. what do you think about this development, news gang?
- Doesn't do a great job at convincing me that the Kurdish liberation movement had goals besides undermining Assad. How are they any closer to sovereignty now than uhhh November 24?
  
  The SDF was always aware that with Daesh "defeated", the American presence and support was anything but permanent. But also, Assad's regime was more of a liability than a guarantor of their safety.
  The PYD had many talks with Assad, but they never progressed towards anything that could challenge Al Nusra/HTS/FSA thanks to the corrupt and compromised nature of the Syrian Arab Army (as demonstrated by their total defection and collaboration with Jolani as evidenced by Chinese intelligence in this megathread).
  AANES, as we know, is not separatist or Kurdish nationalist. It does have strong influence from the latter, but the KCK gave up nationalism years before the Arab spring. The SDF exists as a guarantor for the political, gender, and ethnic autonomy within Syria, no matter what regime governs it, and made this position clear to both Assad and now Jolani.
  Perhaps it would have been prudent to back one side or the other, or to have divested their support for American troops in favour of other nations. On the other hand, perhaps it would have been prudent for Russia and Iran to foresee Assad's obvious weaknesses and court the PYD for such inevitabilities.
  Russia already maintained a handful of bases in SDF territory, and specifically invited the PYD to multiple rounds of Syrian peace talks. Iran's troops (well, Hezbollah) fought alongside the YPG against Daesh. Both could have expanded their ties to AANES. What if the Americans opposed, you ask? Well, the Americans maintained a similar number of troops in East Syria as they do in Iraq, and the latter was just fine for Iran to influence via proxies.
  In the end, we must remember the historical context for the syrian civil war and the arab spring. Whilst they were openly exploited and influenced by the US empire, they were driven equally by the class warfare enacted by the national bourgeoisies of these countries. Syria was no different, with Arabization wiping out the language rights of millions of Kurds, and a strategic organisation of the economy to benefit Damascus at the expense of its Northern and Eastern peripheries. AANES only ever exports crude oil, for example, as refineries were placed in the South. There were also previous uprisings against Assad in the Kurdish regions years before the revolution. And, finally, the fact that the YPG's initial expansion was thanks to the government forces abandoning them to ISIS and retreating to Damascus.
  Sovereignty or independence aren't what AANES was about, but it was also not about overthrowing one government for another. It exists because nothing else filled the vacuum, and continues to exist along the balancing act of surviving between 4 regional powers that see it as a battleground rather than the home of millions of exhausted people who haven't been given a chance to mourn for as long as some people here have been alive.
  
  the PKK existed 3 decades before the civil war come on
  
  What’s your explanation for this turn of events? Are Kurds treated/represented better under any government? Are legal pathways more rational than armed struggle, will electoral politics free the Kurdish people? I’d say no!
  
  they were defeated, simple as.
  
  How? What happened?
- Saw it coming since the SDF signed the agreement to integrate into Syrian state institutions under the HTS government in Syria. The fate of the SDF in Syria, and PKK in Turkey, are connected.
  
  oh i see. i completely missed that at the time.
- I think it is bad since none of the issues that lead to the creation of the PKK in the first place have been resolved, so either the kurd movement will be absorbed into the reactionary turkish state (probably just the kurds in turkey or fewer) or another separatist movement will appear in the future
  
  I think so. The PKK unfortunately has been militarily defeated and has not had a political role in Turkey for many years, having been exiled to the mountains of Iraq. I have issues with Öçalan's position in that he seems to underestimate the fascist elements within Turkey to exploit this victory for further violence, but it is also a chance for new resistance cadres to develop within the vacuum that the PKK inevitably leaves.
  The more I think about it, the more I think it is good for the PKK to step back and allow the KCK to adopt new strategies to meet the new threats and opportunities for political autonomy, women's liberation, and communal economy.
- How does the watermelon seller get so many undeserved Ws smh
  
  Some people thrive in chaos. Turkey as an entity is also too dangerous for outside powers to fall apart.
- Öçalan gave a statement calling for this back in March. At the time, the YPG/YPJ and PKK (namely its factions in Iraq) were under intense fighting with Turkey and its militant proxies.
  IMO, it's short sighted and a second failure of Öçalan since his last peace "deal" that saw the PKK's influence collapse in East Turkey and pushed the party into the fringes of Turkish politics and into Iraq. He has been in nearly total isolation for 26 years on a prison island, with no knowledge of the field beyond the heavily-monitored written or verbal communiqués.
  I think his politics are good, but he is naiive to think that Turkey will ever back down now that they're eviscerating even peaceful and unaffiliated parties in Turkish politics. Erdogan is being unleashed in Syria and beyond and just like FARC in Colombia, the state will NOT respect a truce that gives them everything in return for nothing.
  Despite that, the political control is held with KCK's central committee. They know the field, they know the stakes, they know the entire situation. They chose to accept his word, which despite Apo's almost cult-like status in the Kurdish freedom movement is not the only voice of leadership.
  They are, and I don't say this to glaze them, some of the most experienced people in our current moment in the fields of guerilla and nonviolent resistance. Before the Houthis, they were one of the only non-state actors that were able to operate any semblance of air defence, including at least one F-15/F-16. They know their struggle will be measured in generations.
  I'm but a left wing brit who believes in the political program, but it would be unhealthy for any of us to not treat this news with at least some cynicism.

373 comments