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Does Israel think that it can 1-tag every Muslim country in the world on its own or does it think it can just mainline for the Euphrates putting children's heads on pikes along the way and when it gets bogged down the US will unconditionally bail them out?
I keep wondering about this. I feel strongly we shouldn’t be like idealist libs and just assume our enemies are irrational and incompetent (like they do with Putin or Xi); that they are guided by desires for conquest and not by material incentives.
I do not think we should assume the Israeli military command is irrational. I mean, their approach in Lebanon (bomb civilians, don’t expose your actual soldiers too much because they will get domed) while incredibly evil, is in a sense rational. BUT… I have a hard time squaring a lot of their actions within the bounds of rationality.
If I had to guess, I would say that their strategy of threats and being hyper-aggressive has never really hurt them in the past, so why stop now they figure. The US will never stop sending Israel bombs, at least not until the US literally just runs out. While that is a reality on the horizon it’s still a ways away. I think their strategy is to just bomb anyone who they feel like and don’t actually use soldiers or tanks much. Bomb someone enough who can’t hit you back and eventually they give up, is I guess the strategy.
I've seen an interesting analysis about the Zionist entity's actions.
Its essential presupposition is that the Zionist entity has no real independent foreign policy and is an extension of the US. Whatever infighting between Biden and Netanyahu is just kayfabe. The Zionist entity is completely reliant on US military aid, including relying on US bombers piloted by US pilots to bomb Gazans and Lebanese, which means the Zionist entity has no bargaining power and has to do what the US wants it to do.
The analysis is essentially that the US wants the Zionist entity to murder-suicide the entire West Asian region. The US wants the Zionist entity to escalate to the point of nuking Tehran, which will lead to an Iranian response that would reduce Tel Aviv and the oil refineries in the collaborating Gulf states to rubble. The entire West Asian region will be destroyed as a political and economic entity.
And why does the US want the Zionist entity to murder-suicide the entire West Asian region? Because the day of the petrodollar which is the basis of US financial power is coming to an end, and as the Gulf states are exploring other options like joining BRICS and being integrated through the BRI, the US wants to deny China the oil and hamper its economic growth. Their analysis is that the US has enough domestic reserves to make it through while China will be economically set back because China doesn't have enough reserves at its disposal. It's also the motivation behind China filling their entire country with solar farms and trying to get an economically viable fusion reactor.
The fact the murder-suicide will lead to a humanitarian crisis never before seen is also a plus because there will be a massive refugee crisis that will further destabilize Europe, which will further push Europe towards ever greater vassalage with the US.
It's a very ghoulish analysis, but it honestly tracks pretty well with how the US has handled Ukraine. The US baited Ukraine and Russia to start hostilities and blew up the pipeline to force the EU to be economically reliant on the US. The EU is basically never going to recover from this war, and the pissed off Banderites are excellent fodder for Gladios 2.0. The war in Ukraine will lead to braindrain as Europe's best and brightest leave for the US, which is good timing since many Chinese scientists and engineers are repatriating back to China due to Sinophobia.
I wonder if Israel is engaging in a bit of Madman theory. Trying to come across as unhinged that no one wants to really confront them for fear they'll do something massively insane. Of course engaging with the Madman theory always necessitates actually doing evil and insane things... sooo...
They don't seem to realize there's an expiration date on how well that works. You spend too long playing the madman and eventually everyone else gets sick of your shit and accelerates their efforts to find ways of countering you.
Bomb someone enough who can’t hit you back and eventually they give up, is I guess the strategy.
Surely it's gonna work THIS time!
A lot of Zionists, both the Amerikkkan kkkristian and Israeli types, seem to honestly believe in prophecies, which can really interfere with rational decision making.
States are not rational actors. They are composed of a massive sum of parts, whatever seeming intelligence (in the biological sense of a creature reacting to its environment) that emerges is not necessarily the result of "rationality" (which is itself a fraught concept).
I don't think it is wise to assume that the Israeli high command is incompetent. Certainly, if any of us were placed in their situation, we wouldn't know how to do their jobs at all. Their actions may also be rational from their personal perspective. Deescalation of the war may even cost them their jobs. I don't know.
But the actions of the Israeli high command are certainly not "rational" from the perspective of the state. They are effectively playing chicken with their whole country. Their military is constantly eating losses and getting spread thin from all of these fronts. America refuses to directly intervene. And the Israeli economy is in taters.
Not to be idealist but how much can we imagine that they think they are protected by the hand of God? They know they are on the wrong side of history. There is some level of generational trauma. They watched Germany do the holocaust and thrn run the EU. So what if they are just putting it all on the line and betting they will come out on top because the political order favors the most ruthless and they can deal with peobelms later? Cause like, I kinda think that is how the US runs. They are our mercenary army. It would make sense they plan for victory or death
It's rational actors within a irrational worldview. US capitalists are essentially dooming themselves in the long run by destroying social liberalism and heightening the contradictions within the system. But within that system their internal calculus seems entirely rational moment to moment.
The same is true of Israel. The ruling coalition ranges from "destroy Gaza and southern Lebanon for settlement and secure the borders permanently at the nearest convenient natural border" to "Skulls for the skull throne! 1-tag from from the Nile to the Ganges!"
Both those positions are irrational and the latter is impossible and apocalyptic. However within that range of worldviews their current acts are entirely rational.
Also, look how different their direct push for conquest and extermination is compared to what is the traditional "shadowy murder cabal" lies deployed against Jewish people. These guys explicitly didn't read the Protocols and went "good idea actually". They read Mein Kampf and went "we'll do it first".
I know that being oppressed doesn't make you a good person just an oppressed one, and that the vast majority of Jewish people find this utterly repellent, but fuck that makes me sad.
Israel is in its death throes much like South Africa or Nazi Germany. The unlimited money for military equipment from Amerikkka is the only lifeline they have right now.
Just like previous fascist regimes, the leadership is reliant on endless wars of escalation to defeat their enemy in one final glorious battle, but every time they just spawn a bunch of new enemies that will lead to more escalation.
Unless Israelis topple the regime itself, this is going to burn more and more money, steel, and blood until it becomes truly unsustainable for the Zionist project.
I think the best way forward for world peace is if all the axis of resistance nations received top tier air defense from Russia and China along with all the hypersonic missiles they could want. Also something needs to be done about US attempts on couping basically every country they don't control.
I think it's an open secret that Isntreal is trying to drag the US into the conflict, but Isntreal also has a history of attacking and then using diplomatic channels to restrain their neighbors.
I mean, it basically did twice (1948 and 1967)
Yeah but as the military philosopher Solid Snake has opined "waaarrrr has chaaaangeddd". At least between peers.
Drones, guided artillery and real time satellite recon and c&c mean that the western cult of manuoever is back to WW1 levels of costliness. This is the lesson of Ukraine.
You can achieve small, short term breakthroughs but at enourmous attrition, to the point siege tactics and creeping advances are less costly. Modern cities make excellent fortifications and I can only assume an application of the old siege manuals will make them better.
The cycle turns. Napoleon is dead, Vauban reigns supreme in his star fortress once again.