Bulletins and News Discussion from May 12th to May 18th, 2025 - Nuclear War Averted (Hopefully)!

Image is from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' recent article on Kashmir.

It looks like the spat between India and Pakistan could be dying down, due to a new ceasefire. As of the time of me writing this paragraph, it seems both sides want to maintain it (despite some reports of violations here and there).

Both sides have declared victory, which is completely expected given their mutual political parties and nationalist histories. It's a little harder to say which side has actually won, as both sides seem to have managed to shoot down aircraft and hit military bases. India has, in my opinion, had the more embarrassing moments, but international conflicts aren't cringe compilations. I feel no good-will towards Pakistan's comprador government, but it is at least nice to see Modi knocked down a few pegs. Regardless of the final technical victor, it's obvious that - if the ceasefire is maintained - who won are the hundreds of millions of people who won't have to live in fear of dying in nuclear hellfire.

This conflict is a good example of what multipolarity will truly entail. Countries that have been previously limited in their nationalist ambitions by American pressure will now take opportunities to revolt, sometimes against America itself, and sometimes against other countries in their regional neighbourhood. It's also why, as communists, our goals do not stop at multipolarity; it is merely the establishing act of a new era of agitation against peripheral and semi-peripheral capitalist countries that are forming powerful national bourgeoisie classes as the international American capitalists are forced away.

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Both sides have declared victory, which is completely expected given their mutual political parties and nationalist histories. It's a little harder to say which side has actually won, as both sides seem to have managed to shoot down aircraft and hit military bases
The only evidence so far is of Indian aircraft being shot down, haven't seen any evidence of Pakistani aircraft being shot down.
As far as a technical breakdown, on the first engagement, Pakistan shot down four Indian aircraft (2x Rafale, 1x Su-30MKI, 1x MiG 29) using their Chinese HQ-9 air defence system and J-10C fighter aircraft with no losses, while India achieved a few stand-off strikes on "terrorist targets". Overall I think Pakistan won that engagement, India hit a very limited amount of targets at a very high cost. In hindsight this makes sense, Pakistan has more AWACS aircraft and fighter aircraft with AESA radars. See first, shoot first. However, Indian aircraft should have never been in a position to be shot down, given that they were carrying out stand off strikes, this suggests an poorly planned or ill disciplined approach.
During the second engagement, India hit a large amount of military targets in Pakistan with standoff counterforce strikes, and Pakistan responded with their own counterforce stand off strikes. The engagement was quite disproportionate, with India hitting substantially more targets than Pakistan. In hindsight this makes sense, as the Indian Air Force has substantially better and more diverse stand off strike options: subsonic stealth cruise missiles in Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG, supersonic cruise missiles in BrahMos/P-800 Oniks and Air Launched Ballistic Missiles (ALBM) in Rudram-II and ROCKS. The Pakistani Air Force's conventional stand off capability is quite limited by comparison, with only the CM-400AKG ALBM as an option, the Raad subsonic stealth cruise missiles are nuclear only, leading to Pakistan relying a lot on their rocket troops with the Fatah 1 GMLRS and Fatah-2 Short Range Ballistic Missiles. India also has superior air defence compared to Pakistan, in the S-400 vs the HQ-9. Despite exaggerated claims by both sides, neither side lost aircraft or high level air defence systems in this engagement, but the air defences on both sides also failed to intercept quite a few of these stand off weapons, even if India's air defence faired better. (Pakistan managed to intercept 1 SCALP-EG and 1-2 BrahMos). Pakistan lost a few radars seperate of their air defence systems. Overall India won this second engagement, hitting a lot more targets than Pakistan, and learning their lessons from the previous engagement with no losses in aircraft, as expected from a stand off strike mission.
This conflict is a good example of what multipolarity will truly entail. Countries that have been previously limited in their nationalist ambitions by American pressure will now take opportunities to revolt, sometimes against America itself, and sometimes against other countries in their regional neighbourhood.
The USA still brokered the ceasefire after receiving concerning intelligence, reportedly around potential Indian strikes on Pakistani nuclear forces. The US still very much acted as the "world police".
Ceasefire After 4 Days: Inside Story Of How India-Pakistan Reached Agreement-NDTV
Shortly after the [Indian] strikes, Indian intelligence agencies detected high alert messages flashing across Pakistani defence networks indicating a belief that India might next target Pakistan's nuclear command and control infrastructure.
Strategic installations in Rawalpindi, including offices linked to Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division, reportedly heightened security protocols. It was at this juncture that Pakistan reached out to the United States for urgent intervention.
According to government sources, US officials had already been in contact with both sides in anticipation of escalating tensions. But the alert around strategic assets led Washington to step in more decisively.
At least one explosion took place near a known Pakistani nuclear forces facility, so it doesn't appear to have been a bluff, even if the source of this above information is NDTV.
- Apparently China is now offering to sell Pakistan the J-35 (A stealthy 5th generation analogue to the F-35 for those who don't know) in light of the success of the PAF.
  Meanwhile, Israeli media and military brass are shitting bricks because another regional power has access to these proven Chinese air superiority assets:
  Egypt.
  
  I think J-35s would only be sold to Pakistan if India get F-35s, or whatever European equivalent to the F-35 comes out a decade in the future. I can't see China proactively pulling the trigger here.
  J-10Cs went over to Egypt for a joint military exercise between China and Egypt, Egypt does not operate them yet, though they could in future. Egypt does operate the Rafale though and F-16C block 50/52 aircraft.
  
  Yup. Bad source. They do however have HQ-9Bs which were involved in at least one dead Indian jet I think?
  
  Yeah an HQ-9 system, known as HIMADS in the Pakistani military, did get a kill according to them. Unknown what variant.
  But building on your comment, what China should focus on is better high level specialised air defence and standoff weapons in the Pakistani context, that's what they need more than J-35s. Pakistan did well in the air superiority mission with the J-10C, more than enough to match the Rafale. While neither system performed great, failing to protect military targets, the Russian made S-400 on the Indian side did outperform the Chinese made HQ-9 on the Pakistani side based on the disproportionate second exchange, with limited evidence of interception of BrahMos and SCALP-EG. The Chinese equivalent to the S-300V, in the HQ-18, better be real.
  The Pakistani Air Force also needs more stand-off weapons, having one ALBM type in the inventory, and subsonic cruise missiles reserved only for nuclear forces, and no supersonic missiles, is a big drawback, which led to Pakistan relying on their not so great ground based rocket artillery and short range ballistic missile arsenal for a majority of stand-off counterforce strikes. They were completely outmatched by India here. That's not sustainable as a deterrence posture versus India, nevermind in an actual war. In a tit for tat counterforce stand off strike exchange, India wins every time.
  Stealth from the J-35 would enable a more traditional air campaign to be carried out, but that requires flying into Indian airspace (which is a very hard sell for political reasons in the Pakistan-India context), but stand off counterforce capabilities are a more pressing concern for deterrence I think. Got to learn to crawl, then walk, before you can run. While the Pakistani Air Force is very much ready to run/already running in an air superiority context, they are currently crawling in a strike mission context.
  
  nah land based j-35 variant (seen in the air show this year and actualy marketed to Egypt as well this month -they brought some mock up at least-) will most likely be sold to Pakistan in the nearish future and to whoever else is interested eventualy. China likes and plans around the j-20 more for the theater its interested and it has already been testing and recieving the carrier based j-35 variant . So the land based J-35 variant is basicaly made to be exported. Maybe 1-2 countries like Algeria opt for the Su-57 if Russia manages actual production but for everyone else locked out of the f35 program , j35 will be an option given time. I doupt China cares too much and they will have their 6th gen platforms entering service before Europe manages a 5th gen program either way
  
  I doupt China cares too much and they will have their 6th gen platforms entering service before Europe manages a 5th gen program either way
  Very true, and a big letdown for Europe. China and the USA are moving onto 6th gen, while Europe can't even get a 5th generation aircraft off of the PowerPoint.
- However, Indian aircraft should have never been in a position to be shot down, given that they were carrying out stand off strikes, this suggests an poorly planned or ill disciplined approach.
  From the rumours, the original commander during a previous sortie saw the readiness levels of the PAF and called off the operation, after which he was called a coward and replaced with a yes man who would commit to the attack.
  Additionally, the PL-15Es that Pakistan has may have actually been the un-nerfed 300km range PL-15 China uses domestically, which means unless India had prior intelligence of this that they might have underestimated the range at which they were vulnerable.

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