Can you link to that conversation? I'm not seeing in your history or on their mod log.

You've identified the problem many see, but what is the solution?

This demographic is notoriously hard to reach and the nature of its age and inexperience leads to having their priorities woefully out of whack and susceptible to shit like Joe Rogan and Andrew Tate to Jordan Peterson. Asking or forcing them to watch Mr. Rogers isn't going to cut it, if you know what I mean.

New York Dems... From Bloomberg to Cuomo to Hochul and Donald Trump himself... They're definitely... Special. (I should include Menendez in that, too).

His entire methodology is contingent on history repeating itself. But we know we live in times of historical firsts that defy extrapolation.

With key 2 it's less about the definition and more about the allotted weight of importance. Like, imagine if the DNC simply said that "we are unilaterally awarding all delegate votes to Biden and skipping a Primaries voting process for our Democratic voters." Yes, the key would still be True, but would that mean jack shit? Not really. And again, Incumbency is more a liability when the incumbent President's approval rating matches Jimmy Carter. His Charisma keys are another example of subjective interpretation and which itself is clearly reflective of opinion polls.

For all our sake, I hope he's right. But his prediction is just as if not more useless than the aggregation of A+ polls in moments of time that can actually adapt to changing circumstances, including things like impactful scandals, military success / failures, and social unrest.

At the end of the day Perception is Reality; even if the economy is doing well in short and long-term on paper, we again unfortunately live in unprecedented times where that is not being felt by the actual people who are, you know, going to the ballot box.

Well first you gotta hawk tuah.

Their word choice could be a little better but if you understand the various degrees of Nazism 1930s Germany, this kind of rings true. Most nazi party members weren't these dyed-in-the-wool SS types with full knowledge of the gas chambers; but they certainly conveniently looked the other way and enabled and benefited from it just the same. Naturally, many of these would continue to radicalize. Ignorance, greed, apathy, psychopathy, sure.... Varying amounts at the individual level — yet all volunteer to reside under the same unifying banner.

Many of the keys are subject to arbitrary interpretation; Nate Silver criticized his process and arguably has a better probability model with more consistent accuracy across thousands of races somewhere around 90%. Key 2 was given to Biden despite the writing on the wall that 2/3 of Democrats wanted a contest both before and after the primaries. Key 3 Incumbency these days is more of a liability with both candidates distancing themselves. Key 9 Scandals have lost a lot of meaning in the Trump era.

Should be noted that he gave a full-throated endorsement of Hillary Clinton... only to predict she'd lose. The thing is, he had originally referenced in two different publications ahead of that prediction that she would specifically lose the popular vote. She didn't. He then changed his model.

Also I'm not a fan of this guy because he belittled with insults those who called for Biden to step down... Despite not giving a prediction on Biden at the time.

Both of you are kind of right. It's still an insane feat of endurance but averaging an 18 minute mile is pretty damn slow and likely zone 2-3 even in rugged terrain for an athlete like her.

High intensity isn't just a generalized term but specific to heart rate, lactate buildup, and anaerobic states.

I'm really curious about this. We know Trump changed his residency from NY to FL and I wonder if that had anything to do with this. To my knowledge Cannon was an unfortunate product of randomized selection.

I can't get over what a star-studded cast the Harry Potter films had... Smith, Harris, Rickman, Oldman, Thewlis, Coltrane... I could go on. The child actors were so fortunate to have that experience and to meet and learn from such legends.

This is the part where you deflect away from the substance and attack the person with ever-moving goalposts because you know you have nothing and were proven wrong at every single turn of our little conversation — yet your ego will not permit you to walk away from this. So here, I'll do you a favor buddy and show you how this is the part where I walk away because you bring nothing of value to add to this discussion:

McGonagall was always my favorite professor... She imbued the stern English teacher with a gentle heart. Maggie Smith played that role phenomenally, right there with Richard Harris as Dumbledore.

You're saying there were more Sanders supporters in 2016 than Hillary supporters in 2008? Yeah... That's not exactly helping your argument.

But anyway: 15% of Hillary supporters voted for Mccain; 12% of Sanders supporters voted for Trump.

But don't worry, I'll be voting Harris.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2016/may/29/bernie-sanders/bernie-sanders-says-he-polls-better-against-donald/

Whew, more salt than the dead sea.

So long as you learned from your mistake, little buddy :)

Say here's another fun fact! More Sanders supporters would go on to support Hillary than did Hillary supporters go on to support Obama in 2008 when she lost the primaries.

Guess they didn't get over it :(

Will probably be a, "never heard of him... Though I wish him well."

Strange trend with Donnie when he's trying to distance himself from someone he definitely knows. Like Ghislaine Maxwell.

Is that quote accurate?

I thought there would be 30 seconds worth of ellipses in between.

Fun fact: Sanders consistently out-performed Hillary in head-to-head matchups against Trump.

The same establishment that derailed Sanders and propped Hillary up were the same ones trying to force Biden down our throats while castigating any dissent.*

*I know the progressives supported Biden until the end, but this was purely a strategic reason where if anything, their calls for Biden to step aside might've had the opposite effect.

My wife and I both work. She has a demanding stressful job (that she loves, mind you) that isn't exactly conducive to pumping. So she breastfed as long as she could and then switched to formula. Let me tell you... Car seats aren't shit compared to buying formula and diapers these days. I'd have to double-check but formula alone is somewhere around $300-400/mo...

This is a huge deal. I remember watching early on in the war and one neurosurgeon was using a single CT scanner well beyond its duty cycle and knew once it went down they'd be screwed. MRIs by contrast (heh) are a massive step up.