Architeuthis @ Architeuthis @awful.systems

It's not always easy to distinguish between existentialism and a bad mood.

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2 yr. ago

Conversely, people who may not look or sound like a traditional expert, but are good at making predictions

The weird rationalist assumption that being good at predictions is a standalone skill that some people are just gifted with (see also the emphasis on superpredictors being a thing in itself that's just clamoring to come out of the woodwork but for the lack of sufficient monetary incentive) tends to come off a lot like if an important part of the prediction market project was for rationalists to isolate the muad'dib gene.

To be clear, it's well known L Ron Hubbard quote originally about starting a religion, to my knowledge Altman didn't really say that.

Today in relevant skeets:

::: spoiler transcript Skeet: If you can clock who this is meant to be instantly you are on the computer the perfect amount. You’re doing fine don’t even worry about it.

Quoted skeet: 'Why are high fertility people always so weird?' A weekend with the pronatalists

Image: Egghead Jr. and Miss Prissy from Looney Tunes Foghorn Leghorn shorts.

"I'm a colossal cunt who thinks being coy about holocaust denialism as just another potential grift" - The Yarvinator

I'll just make a wild assumption that the author of that post is also a raging antisemite who thinks the jews control the world, so being jew-unaligned is probably a point of virtue in his book.

Also I bet the non-secular jews were in actuality not that crazy about Russia either and he just means judeobolshevism.

I mean, it's not like the holocaust acceptance in that thread is much better.

https://xcancel.com/x_apotheosis/status/1910766575923101837

Old and busted: whitewashing hitlerism by pretending the holocaust didn't happen.

New hotness: pretending the holocaust just sort of happened one day, completely unrelated to the explicit ideology of the people who planned and executed it and the regime that sanctioned it, and anyway they had their hands full defending themselves against unprovoked attacks by the so-called allies, who can blame them.

The vibe I get is that by 'enjoyers' he means people who thought fighting the nazis in WW2 was morally justified.

Here's a screenshot of a skeet of a screenshot of a tweet featuring an unusually shit take on WW2 by Moldbug:

link

edit: hadn't seen yarvin's twitter feed before, that's one high octane shit show.

karma

Works the same on LessWrong.

sarcophagi would be the opposite of vegetarians

Unrelated slightly amusing fact, sarcophagos is still the word for carnivorous in Greek, the amusing part being that the word for vegetarian is chortophagos and how weirdly close it is to being a slur since it literally means grass eater.

I am easily amused.

Mesa-optimization

Why use the perfectly fine 'inner optimizer' mentioned in the references when you can just ask google translate to give you the clunkiest, most pedestrian and also wrong part of speech Greek term to use in place of 'in' instead?

Also natural selection is totally like gradient descent brah, even though evolutionary algorithms actually modeled after natural selection used to be their own subcategory of AI before the term just came to mean lying chatbot.

The kokotajlo/scoot thing apparently made it to the new york times.

So this is what that was about:

edit: also @gerikson is apparently a superforcaster

Reminds me of an SMBC comic that had a setup along the same lines, that if male birth order correlates with homosexuality and family size trends being what they are, the past must have been considerably gayer on average.

No idea where they would land on what to mock and what to take seriously from this whole mess.

Don't know what they're up to these days but last time I checked I had them pegged as enlightened centrists whose style of satire is having strong beliefs about stuff is cringe more than it is ever having to say anything of even accidental substance about said things.

The first prompt programming libraries start to develop, along with the first bureaucracies.

I went three layers deep in his references and his references' references to find out what the hell prompt programming is supposed to be, ended up in a gwern footnote:

They look like the evil twins of the Penny Arcade writers.

It is with great regret that I must inform you that all this comes with a three-hour podcast featuring Scoot in the flesh: 2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

That was a good one. Also, was he the first to break the coreweave situation? Not a bad journalistic get if that's the case.

Imagine insecure smart people yes-anding each other into believing siskind and yud are profound thinkers.