1y ago

Prepare for Putin pivot to invade us, say Baltic states

www.telegraph.co.uk

Diplomats say Putin’s brutalisation of Ukraine has brought back darkest memories of occupation under Stalin

Nato must be ready for Russia launching an “existential” war against the Baltic states “masked by a blizzard of disinformation”, ambassadors from the three countries have warned.

Writing exclusively for The Sunday Telegraph, the top diplomats to the UK from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania said that Russia could “pivot quickly” from Ukraine to invade the Baltic.

And they said that Vladimir Putin’s brutalisation of Ukraine is evoking the three countries’ “darkest memories” of occupation under Stalin.

The Estonian ambassador Viljar Lubi, the Latvian ambassador Ivita Burmistre, and Lithuania’s charge d’affaire Lina Zigmantaite, wrote the joint article to mark Friday’s 20 year anniversary of their countries acceding to Nato.

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Turns out we should have been helping Ukraine against Putin's fascistic colonialism instead of supporting an entirely separate set of fascists commit genocide in Palestine.
- The issue is partially that we have no real voice in American politics. Republicans are highly responsive to the whims of their voters, Democrats work hard to ignore when their voters have demands. Republicans have not choice to do what they're voters want. Democrats have carte blanc because they know "Blue no Matter Who" and "Any Blue Will Do". It's incredibly important to recognize this divide in electoralism. The policies of the Republican party are the will of the Republican voter. Republicans are scared shitless of their voters because it is a non stop series of purity tests effectively contrived through the alt right media. If you step out of line as a Republican, consider your career vanished
  
  I feel like you have it completely backwards.
  Democrats have always been "the big tent" party, which is part of their weakness, as their voters have a wide range of "demands" that are often, if not always, contradictory. You have to remember that this is a party that has to appeal to religiously conservative black people, while also appealing to upper middle secularists. They are trying to appeal to both conservative religious muslims, and at the same time the powerful voting Jewish bloc.
  It's not an easy tightrope to walk, but it's not regularly "ignoring demands of the party" it's "which of these two competing demands of our party can we ignore that will hurt us less?" They basically try to appeal to the voter, but that's impossible because they are trying to please too many disparate groups at the same time.
  Republicans have the advantage of having to appeal to a smaller group and set of beliefs, and then just get everyone else to fall in line behind it (although that is being tested now with MAGA delusionalists vs the traditional conservatives). Republicans have been pushing this fear of different people (immigrants, different religions)and liberal elites for decades now (as you note in another post, via things like right wing media). . . it's just that they lost control of it when someone (Trump) rose up and fully embodied the id they had been fostering. . .and now they are just following the playbook where they have to get everyone to fall in in line behind that.
  
  US republicans are doing the opposite, they're telling their voters what to believe
  
  I'll be real, that situation seems pretty fucked, but I have no idea about US politics really, I'm from Wales.
  That being said, our main political parties are essentially in this same state by the looks of things.
  
  I don't think this is exactly right. For the longest time Republicans were the same way, dangling a carrot of doing something to get votes but never actually doing it. I think Donald Trump has emboldened a lot of people to run for office that don't understand that you don't actually give the base what they want cause it makes you deeply unpopular with everyone else.
- Biden got 100 secret arms shipments to israel done while ignoring Zelensky. Bypassed Congress for israel, not Ukraine.
  Blaming Trump for Biden abandoning Ukraine to support israels Genocide is top tier mental gymnastics.
  
  Coming to Trumps defense and bashing Biden. CLASSIC LINKERBAAN
  
  Arms shipments so secret that we are here talking about them?
  
  All I see is “Thanks, trumptards”. Perhaps he edited his post or something, but I don’t get the impression he’s the one doing mental gymnastics on this.
  
  You're saying this while knowing Trump withheld aid to Ukraine on the condition of helping him manufacture dirt in Biden?
This is the cost of failing to fully support Ukraine, while supporting Israel in a genocide.
Is Russia really in any position to be trying to wage war on multiple new fronts? Poland just implied Russia is going to attack Europe. With what? Dry Russian wit and empty vodka bottles?
- Russia still has a lot of men and has already transitioned into a war-time economy. All Europe has done is have Baltics and Poland (and probably also Finland) go through potential invasion strategies, the rest of Europe doesn't even believe in the possibility of war. The only way circumstances could be better is if Trump gets elected because that old fuck will make sure to hamper US support. Other than that if you're going to invade you couldn't want better conditions.
  I'm not saying it will happen. I'm going to say the invasion would the stupid and hardly beneficial for Russia and the logical thing would be to not invade. But I will add that I said the exact same thing about the invasion of Ukraine and we know how that went. I wouldn't put it beyond the realm of possibilities.
  
  the invasion would the stupid and hardly beneficial for Russia and the logical thing would be to not invade. But I will add that I said the exact same thing about the invasion of Ukraine and we know how that went.
  The main difference here though is the consideration of NATO. If you attack Ukraine you're attacking one country, if you attack NATO you're attacking many, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, who have some of the largest military's forces on the planet and access to nuclear weapons. Russia had reason to believe it might have actually win against Ukraine, there's no possible way they can think that they could win against NATO.
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- Just commenting so I can come back here when Russia invades another country
- Why multiple fronts? The current conflict may be frozen under "right" circumstances, Putin will have several years to resupply. It doesn't matter if Ukrainian allies have more economical and technological power than Russia if people in places like Germany cry that Currywurst now costs 1 EUR more than 2 years ago, and just want this to be over.
  
  Interesting that you chose Germany specifically, which is one of the largest contributors, both total and relative to GDP.
  That being said, everybody needs to step up their game, including Germany. Just send the Tauruses, Olaf.
- I think most people are missing the strategy of modern Russian warfare. Is Russian going to roll tanks and soldiers into the Baltics this year? Probably not.
  Russia is using more of an asymmetrical approach to warfare with a ramp up. On the low end is the disinformation campaign. (News and religion: there are a lot of Orthodox in Latvia) Economic "Little Green men" Conventional warfare Nukes or the threat of nukes
  I'm the Baltics they are in the disinformation and economic section of the ramp up and are worried about escalation.
  Also note Russia goes up and down that ramp escalating and descalating as they did in Ukraine.
- Yeah kinda, that's how Russia has historically won wars and handled surplus population. Sort of why its so fucking big.
- It muddies the water around, supporting the various states, and the public image of that.
  The same thing for the Palestine genocide ongoing now, the US has a second war to supply.
This is where the drive to withdraw from NATO comes from. Because if you withdraw before your puppet master would trigger article 5 you have no problem.
- The US withdrawing from NATO would make NATO pretty much meaningless, since most other NATO members are part of the EU, which has its own military alliances. Notable exception being the UK.
  
  I don't know if that is true. For the short term .. most definitely. But in the end a lot of countries still benefit from the mutual defense clause. NATO would have to reinvent itself for sure, but it is not an unsurmountable problem. It might cause the UK and Canada to withdraw too meaning it will be the defacto European military.
  In the Long run the US would lose so much in their power position towards China. Because if Beijing can just keep trading with the EU and make money there, the US will have a much harder time doing their powerplay. China will annex Taiwan and noone will be able to prevent it.
  
  No need to withdraw from NATO if NATO can effectively prevented from accomplishing its mission (the current political state).
Wut? Is he going to invade using a pivot table?
If Russia was going to attack NATO the place to do it would be on the Swedish border. As NATO not deployed that many forces in that area, mostly to avoid antagonising the Russians.
In the absence of any explicit threat though I don't think NATO really needs to do anything very much.
- Sweden doesn’t have a land border with Russia
  You’re probably thinking of the Finnish border. Here’s the thing, Finland has spent its entire history preparing for Russian invasions.
  
  If im being really nice maybe theyre talking about a strike from the bit of Prussia the Russians own over to Gotland and then using that foothold to attack into mainland Sweden. But im pretty sure the Swedes fortified Gotland specifically for that issue so IDFK.
- Sweden does not have a border with Russia.
- This dude is going by pre-20th century European borders lol
  I know it's a meme we don't exist, but we actually do. We've also got the biggest and arguably most accurate artillery in Europe.
  Homeland defence willingness against a superior enemy is at 83%, one of the highest rates in Europe.
  And seeing what we managed in WWII against Russia without allies or gear (now we have both), when the Soviets were well armed, it's understandable Putin would be a bit apprehensive about opening up a new front on the Finnish border.
Rage bait.
Such fear porn. It's amazing that now Sweden and Finland have become NATO members that they are subject to even more scare tactics! I think it's ridiculous. Nobody is shelling Russians from Finland or Sweden for the last 7 years. Granted, joining AMericATO is a big mistake but mainly because you are submitting your national defence to US rent seeking instead of developing a European arms framework.
- Let's play "Spot the russian bot" i'll begin ⬆️
- Sweden and Finland aren’t the Baltics nor are they the ones claiming the Baltics could be next
- There is a European arms framework, that is developed to be compatible with NATO and thus US stuff. Nordic fighter jets which have been exported to many countries can carry US missiles. All the while, the US is phasing out the M16/M4 in the USMC for a German licence built rifle. They have been using German small arms for a bunch of stuff for a while.
  Also, it's not NATO who's saying the Russians want to attack neighbouring states, it's Russia who is saying that, who has been saying that, who has actually been attacking neighbouring states. Finland and the Baltics have been invaded in the past by the Russians as well, and Putin is open about wanting to reconquer them.
  
  Check out the function of nato after the Cold War. Also check the new American economic tent seeking ambition if you want to see how Europe fits into the economic picture.

97 comments