US gov fires a warning shot at Nvidia: 'We cannot let China get these chips... If you redesign a chip that enables them to do AI, I'm going to control it the very next day'
The chipmaker has been quick to redesign its products to pass the current restrictions, but US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo seems to have had enough.
Lol. Lmao.
In the funniest timeline, the US nationalizes Nvidia to delay China from making chips that work well with LLM's... by a year tops.
To do that, Raimondo said the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, which manages export controls for the US, needs more funding from Congress.
“I have a $200 million budget. That’s like the cost of a few fighter jets. Come on,” she said. “If we’re serious, let’s go fund this operation like it needs to be funded.”
National Graphics Card Corporation mass produces affordable mid-range graphics cards and restricts sales to crypto and AI startups for “national security reasons”, causing graphics card prices to fall, but because Elon Musk doesn’t get 10 more fps when he upgrades to the 8090 Super Ti (tm) the West has fallen and it’s time to end those commie democrats and their big government
Nahh, that doesn't work. ASML for example, is based in the Netherlands. The Amerikkkans just placed sanctions on "products using US technologies and patents"(which applies to like 99% of the stuff made in the world) instead.
This is one of the ways they fuck over Cuba btw. Its not enough to just not have any components made in the US or any money from a bank with significant US ownership (ie..most of them). You also can't use any US intellectual property, and the US has made it so that interlocking patents mean no components ever become public domain.
Right, but as I understand it China still has some catching up to do in terms of the technology and manufacturing? It's amazing what they've accomplished so far tho, and they'll probably fully catch up to and surpass Taiwanese manufacturing soon enough
Soon enough is not going to be as fast as you think. The issue is TSMC has a complete equipment and knowledge monopoly and we are not talking about a 5 or 10 year lead. We are talking more 15 to 20 on anyone that just wants to catch up at this stage.
To do that, Raimondo said the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, which manages export controls for the US, needs more funding from Congress. [...] “I have a $200 million budget. That’s like the cost of a few fighter jets. Come on,” she said. “If we’re serious, let’s go fund this operation like it needs to be funded.”
Once there's serious money for Cold War 2: China Boogaloo - it's not going to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security. There will be a huge turf war involving the Pentagon, the CIA, the NSA, etc. They will all want the lion's share of the money for themselves for what they'll call something like "strategic interests AI". And - of course - once they get that money they'll want huge increases each and every year to counter the threats from foreign advisories.
... the big plan for the near future, our grand strategic vision; a vision shared amongst the thought leaders of the West, is entirely predicated on Chinese people not figuring out how to make computer chips
The whole point of US sanctions is to decouple, i.e. force China out of the world’s market and keep their technology separate from the ones under US control.
China is going to have their own indigenous, perhaps even more advanced technology, but so long as the US control access to the world market, and forcing Chinese technological development to be sufficiently deviated from integration into the rest of the world’s (i.e. US controlled) technology, the US would have achieved their goals.
The perils for China come not from their inability to reinventing the wheel or not catching up with Western technology, it’s that China does not have access to the international market when their manufacturing industrial base is critically geared towards export market.
The major “hinge point” happened back in 2009 during the global financial crisis, when dwindling Western consumption resulted in China’s infrastructure development and the booming of property market instead of reorientating their economy towards internal demand (internal circulation). As such, China now has the capacity of housing 6T people for a population of 1.4T - absolutely nobody is going to buy those properties because there are not going to be enough people to live in there. All the capital flooded into real estate for a quick fix (profit) rather than creating a strong domestic consumer base.
This is why China is undergoing a property market crisis today and it’s going to take them a while to sort this out. But the worse problem is that China’s consumer base is too weak to absorb the loss of international market for high end products. This was something they should have foreseen back in the early 2000s, and failed to correct course from the very beginning.
The US government has been taken over by Chinese government agents who are implementing economic protectionalism for the Chinese semiconductor industry through the most round-about method possible.