Open source intelligence suggests rocket was launched by Palestinian group, backing up Israel's claims

The same organization is making it very clear that this is not proof because they only have publicly available Intel.

The group cited several clips believed to be of the explosion from different sources and claimed the “geolocation and timing of the footage is conclusive”. However, they said their conclusions are not “proven fact”.

“That doesn’t mean that they are THE truth, just what we think is highly likely based on our geolocations(facts) and logic/reason,” they wrote on Twitter.

“We are geolocators, not official investigators… To be sure what really happened, different official investigations are needed.”

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/gaza-hospital-explosion-likely-caused-by-missile-fired-from-palestine-analysts-claim/ar-AA1ipms3

Israel and the US have more intelligence that could definitely prove what happened...

But for some reason they aren't releasing it. Most logical reason is it shows Israel launched it, or blew up the hospital while trying to shoot a rocket down.

If it cleared Israel, that satellite footage would be out by now. Gaza is too tiny for me to believe Israel just wasn't surveiling it at the time.

You think intelligence agencies would release primary source data that could reveal collection methods and fidelity to other nation state intelligence agencies just to win PR points?
There's only one individual I can think of that would do something like that, and he's currently facing charges relating to his handling of classified materials.
- Are you talking about former president Donald Buttcheeks?
Is that really the most logical conclusion to be drawn? It's been less than a day, and I would really hope intellegince services are more diligent than your average twitter sleuth. Id rather they be right than first, personally.
Also what satellite footage are you talking about?
- You dont think Israel has satellites looking at Gaza?
  It's a very very small area, and missiles/rockets are more than visible enough. It should be really easy to see if it came from Israel or further in Gaza.
  Hamas doesn't have satellites, so it makes sense they can't offer proof.
  If Israel wants people to believe them in 2023, they need to understand they've already burnt up their benefit of doubt.
I don't understand. Ya'll think Israel is gonna burn an intelligence asset they have by making it public just so people who are already convinced by one narrative (because underdogs are always easier to support) have proof of one attack not being their own? They have better use for that intelligence. Like fighting a war.
- a’ll think Israel is gonna burn an intelligence asset
  Everyone knows they have satellites, it's not like it's an informant...
Have you also considered the crab people ?

Yeah the original claims seemed as likely to be true as all the times that terrorists fought to take credit for disasasters that didn't involve them. It's quick easy points in fast moving propaganda campaigns. That being said I have seen this fricking twitter thread of internet sleuths used like 4 times and called different things and we keep passing around the same short clip and the complete nonsense arguments.

No I don't think anyone can say anything about this other than a hospital in gaza was partially blown up like many others and people are still suffering while aid is being kept at arms length from the victims. That's the real story and I don't care who did it until real intelligence has something to say on the matter.

https://twitter.com/GrantSmithEllis/status/1714399186295111815?t=wxkjKFCi8k2oZ0FTiwxV1g&s=19

10-minute video captured by AJArabic around the time the al-Ahli hospital was hit.

As per @Ted55643099:

Explosions on this video: (0:19) hospital. (0:16, 4:25, 4:49) behind and to the left of the hospital. (5:33, 5:56, 9:26, 10:46) behind hospital, most likely the same place. (9:38, 10:51) to the right of the hospital outside of the frame, likely the same place.

Crosspost from a similar thread:

So this here is the current view on the area where supposedly about 500 people died. Also there are allegedly more than 300 wounded.

Questions I personally have:

where is the rubble and where is the bomb crater?
why does the building seem undamaged?
how do you fit 800 people in this parking lot?

Well Israel has dropped more bombs this week alone than the entire Afghan war, so it isn't obscene to think the few hospitals left standing are overcrowded by the thousands. If OSINT is to be believed, it hit the parking lot and wiped out that many people, its a pretty fucking big parking lot. And if it was Hamas, they do not have as powerful of payloads as Israel, so I would assume they were just too weak to collapse the building.
Also it's unclear how many people died.
Turns out taking the hamas series of events at face value won't link up with reality down the line
- And too many people where just too happy to jump to conclusions if that conclusion is allowing them to shit on Israel further.
  I don't think I've ever seen misinformation being gobbled up so willingly by so many before - the internet was just ready to condemn Israel for whatever they could get their hands on.
  And as if one needed proof that Anti-Zionism is just a disguise for Anti-Semitism directly after that claim of Israel being responsible in Berlin people already started spraying Stards of David on houses that jews where living and threw a molotov at a synagogue.
- And we needed to reach 2023 to realize terrorists can't be trusted, heh.
how do you fit 800 people in this parking lot?
have you heard of multi level buildings?
- I wonder why 800 people would huddle in one building that's supposed to be off limits to bombs right now. Really boggles the mind yeah? /s
- So you see a multi level building there? You maybe should cut down on the mushrooms.
I can see in that video, one of the cars got flipped upside down. Whatever detonated there had a significant blast.

Once this is backed up by a reputable news source, I'll believe it. It's unfortunate but I can't argue with facts if adequate evidence and vetting is presented. I still hate Israel with every fiber in my body. From the river to the sea.

While I can't take Hamas' word at face value, I also can't forget that many people who are not Israeli have a vested interest in spreading misinformation. Why did Israel change it's story so many times immediately following? Can IDF not launch missiles from inside Gaza? The article mentions this ordinance has been used by Hamas before, when? How is Hamas able to smuggle missiles into Gaza, which has been described as a locked down prison with hundreds of checkpoints?

This is an incredible claim and I expect incredible proof.

My man, this current conflict started with Hamas launching 2,500 missiles at Israel. Israel famously has the Iron Dome system to shoot down the missiles that have been coming from Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon for years. It is not at all an incredible claim that Hamas and other anti-Israel groups in Palestine have missiles; it's well-proven fact. Here's an info-graphic of the different types of missiles Hamas was known to have as of 2021.
- The iron dome doesn't extend into Gaza right? So it wasn't a rocket interception?
- Thanks friend, you're a good fella. I understand the Iron Dome is a rocket defense system, there's just a difference between missiles and rockets.
How is Hamas able to smuggle missiles into Gaza, which has been described as a locked down prison with hundreds of checkpoints?
my man, we literally saw them firing thousands of rockets into Israel, but this one is somehow unbelievable?
How is Hamas able to smuggle missiles into Gaza, which has been described as a locked down prison with hundreds of checkpoints?
there are huge tunnel systems under gaza...its quite crazy.
incredible claim
Fuck the IDF and fuck Hamas but there isn’t anything incredible about it besides the fact that you don’t seem to like it
I have not seen Israel change it's story, do you have a source for that
- First they blamed Hamas. Then they posted a video from 2022. Then they posted a video with a wrong timestamp (even though it was live). There were probably more but these are what came to mind.
- These are a few: https://twitter.com/MarkKersten/status/1714367614162702612, but they are saved all over if you don't trust this random dude.
- Who downvotes people for asking for sources, pathetic
Why did Israel change it’s story so many times immediately following?
Because their psyop instinct jumped the gun without double-checking whether they actually hit any target even in the rough vicinity. Imagine a bunch of neck-bearded shitposters in uniform salivating over their keyboards, then brass storming in saying "stop that it wasn't us, this time".

Palestinians lie, and the world blames Jews, then the world targets Jews, and when the truth finally comes out, no one apologizes, the hurt and blood cannot be rescinded, because "The Jews deserved it anyway"

To be fair, no one's blaming "the Jews". We're blaming Israel, which is a very different thing.
- More than that, the focus is on a Leader and administration that is opposed by the majority of Israeli people
- within 24h hours after that explosion at the hospital in Berlin there were reported cases of people spraying stars of david on jew's houses and an incident with a molotov being thrown at a synagogue.
  The line between Anti-Zionism and Anti-Semitism is VERY thin for a lot of people...
- Which is why worldwide Jewish population making up .2% is targeted literally everywhere around the world every time Israel defends itself against Hamas. You keep saying this lie, every time it happens, and yet, targeting worldwide Jewry continues to happen every time Israel defends itself. And all the upvoters are like "yeah, we just got a problem with Israel not Jews" and the Jews keeps saying "why are you stabbing us in the street and targeting synagogues when Israel defends itself.
  And some asshole like you will say the same thing next time, and so it goes, the eternal cycle. Jews say this is antisemitic, it's jew bating, it's threatening, it's deadly, and the world says actually it's not.
Israel lies. Hamas lies. No one apologizes for the Israeli lies either. You know what Palestinians don't do.... Run an apartheid state. Or turn Israel into an open air prison. Israel is the one here with the power to change the situation. Why don't they?
It's definitely tragic the attacks that happened. And our hearts go out to all of those families. Why didn't any Israelis think about that over the years for the tens of thousands of Palestinians killed in their governments genocidal apartheid?
- Israel is with the power to change the situation? Oh really? What could Israel could possibly do do have peace in the region? Besides going "okay we're leaving bye have tel aviv and jerusalem" nothing could be done to stop the palestinian aggression. Nothing, and they proved that time and time again. Israel has nothing to do in the situation except prevent more attacks on it.

Wtf is "open sourced intelligence"? Is it another name for "armchair internet sleuths"?

There is literally a definition in the article...
Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) is defined as intelligence produced by collecting, evaluating and analysing publicly available information.
- So like when Reddit found the Boston Bomber, gotcha.
  I'll take this with a grain of salt.
It's genuine intel but needs to be verified thoroughly. I will believe it once it hits reputable news sources.
- Which are? For example in Germany the Tagesschau is a quite reputable source and they are also using these OSINT sources to back the story up.

I find it interesting that this is being defended so vociferously, when so many people still needlessly died.

Well the first claims out by Hamas was 500+ dead and an Israeli airstrike.
Now we are learning it's more like 20-50 dead, landed in the parking lot next to the hospital and was due to a failed Hamas/related groups rocket.
Yeah either way people died but the entire situation has greatly raised tension in the middle east. It could have been responsible for opening up another front of the war with Hezbollah.
Huh?
The quantity of innocent lives lost makes the correct identification of the culprit maximally important
- No it doesn’t. The IDF will lie. Hamas will lie. Did it matter who blew up the Nordstream pipeline? At best, we’ll find out years from now, and, by then the world will have moved on, and it won’t matter.
It absolutely matters, yeah people died but guess what, shit don’t end there.
If this is a verifiable attack from Israel it is a clear indicator a war crime and can be used to reduce support to Israel in this effort. Ya know what that could do? Reduce the number of people who will die
Just because someone died doesn’t mean it’s off limits to those that didn’t. What kind of brain dead take is that
- No it doesn’t. Israel has committed war crimes leading up to this. Did the world stop that? How many lives did knowing that Israel committed war crimes save? Hamas committed war crimes. Did knowing that save lives? Did I mention that Israel is still committing war crimes? They bombed a school. They bomb the people fleeing. They shot people (including children) during a peaceful protest in 2018. Why didn’t the world care then? It’s that kind of brain dead take.