2mo ago

Analysis: Clean energy just put China’s CO2 emissions into reverse for first time

www.carbonbrief.org

Analysis: Clean energy just put China’s CO2 emissions into reverse for first time - Carbon Brief

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/22189256

The latest data, for the first quarter of 2025, shows that China’s CO2 emissions have now been stable or falling for more than a year, as shown in the figure below.
However, with emissions remaining just 1% below the recent peak, it remains possible that they could jump once again to a new record high.
Outside of the power sector, emissions increased 3.5%, with the largest rises in the use of coal in the metals and chemicals industries.
Sector-by-sector analysis suggests that, in addition to the power sector, emissions have likely also peaked in the building materials and steel sectors, as well as oil products consumption.

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Noone ever believes me when I tell them that at >20% yearly growth, solar alone is going to overtake fossil in a decade
- People don't understand how growth works. And there's a lot of fossil fuel propaganda ("what are you going to do at night / when there's no wind"). You can deal with those things using batteries, pumped storage and by shifting load.
  
  Solar panel cost drops -50% each 11-12 years too. It's crazy actually.
  I have done some napkin calculations and those 400W balcony panels (full kit) are paid off in around 5 years. And it's just getting better and better.
- Depends on the location and season, but yeah, I can see that.
  
  Then we must invent some way of transporting electricity, like cables, pylons or something 😉
- They probably don’t believe you because most of the time a 20% growth rate doesn’t just stay constant for a decade, allowing for such simplistic extrapolations. There are examples to the contrary. But a 20% growth rate means 750% growth over 10 years and that is a lot.
- Of course it will, but its too late. We need it now.
That's what I keep telling delayers who always say that China pollutes so much it's not worth doing any effort without them. The day that the Chinese government decides to go green it will be done in a matter of years, the day that the US decides to go green it will be done in a matter of decades.
- I personally suspect the crash in solar panel prices is a result of them deciding to get on with fixing the problem. Basically turn it from a political problem to an economic one.
  They are also pushing hard for both modern nuclear fission and nuclear fusion power. Once they start coming online in bulk, their CO2 output will likely plummet.
- the day that the US decides to go green...
  pfff
This is good news but I hate the title. It makes it sound like they are fixing more carbon than they are producing. Its more that its decelerating. Which is awesome.
- Their emissions are lower. It's not just slower growth in emissions.
Excellent news!
Now it’s on US deniers - we can no longer claim we shouldn’t do anything because China is not
- I hate to be the bearer of unpopular takes but it’s likely a sign of a shrinking economy. That‘s something that won‘t convince any voters at the moment.
  
  China posts unexpectedly strong economic growth before tariffs bite
I hate China, but at times they do correct shit and because of the structure of the government it's almost always successful.
Wish they didn't have so much human rights violations.
- I don't know what community to post this in either so I'm just gonna add it here, hexbear and Lemmygrad claim to be communists, claim to not be revisionists, claim to use materialistic dialectics, but have you ever visited their ProleWiki? Shit is full with contradictions, how are you gonna educate socialists when your own encyclopedia can't even get itself right? Actively denying reality is the opposite of what Marx wrote.
Net doesn't matter. If we get net zero emissions, we're fucked.
We must get it to 0.
- Yeah, but isn't net zero the huge milestone that's actually accomplishable in "our lifetime"*?
  *on some self reflection and as a millennial, very net negative emissions feels accomplishable in my lifetime, so I suppose when I'm saying "our lifetime" I mean before the Boomers/Gen X die off.
The reduction in China’s first-quarter CO2 emissions in 2025 was due to a 5.8% drop in the power sector. While power demand grew by 2.5% overall, there was a 4.7% drop in thermal power generation – mainly coal and gas.
This is catching up to Europe's FF use declines (10%+ in 2024) in power sector. The overall reduction in emissions isn't that big because China is doing something pretty crazy and highly emittive. It is making liquid fuels from coal. Geopolitics forces it to for independence.
Not to ruin it for anyone but the only reason is that solar is the cheapest option nowadays...
- Why would that ruin it?
So, 350 million Americans managed to elect Trump. After 5 months, and him totally crashing the country, they haven't managed to stop him... not to hopeful about humanity's chances on stopping climate change 😢
Oh my, it couldn't be related to the US massively reducing their demand on the country's manufacture, could it?! If more people stopped demanding cheap, unnecessary, poor quality products with high environmental and ethical costs, maybe China's emissions will drop even further!
- No. It's because they are adding a fuck load of solar panels every day. They are leading the world by an insane margin. They got a lot of shitty things going on over there but they are crushing it on clean energy
  
  China clearly saw my solar power setup in Factorio and got jealous.
  /s
- Stable of falling for more than a year. us demand hasn'tbeen mattively reduced that long-
- No its because many countries are slowly turning things around and the USA is not
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_by_country

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