this tariff pause is going to be very bad for the factory I started building last week

Forget four years. When Trump just turns around and lowers almost all the tariffs just because bond markets "got yippy" it makes it very clear that these are not a permanent thing even within this administration (assuming it does only last four years).

This has been their problem from the start. If the goal of tariffs is to encourage domestic production, then it needs to be clear that they are a permanent thing, not some momentary whim. Companies need to know that it's worth making four year, five year, ten year investments under this new regime.

But Trump and his mouthpieces keep talking about making deals. They describe the tariffs as a negotiating tactic, which means they're only intended to stick around as long as it takes to get that deal. So if you're investing in a new factory, the message is to wait until the deal happens.

Tariffs cannot be both a tool for encouraging domestic growth and a tool for negotiating better trade. Those two goals are mutually exclusive. But pretty much no one in the white house understands that.