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Bulletins and News Discussion from April 7th to April 13th, 2025 - Juche With Trumpian Characteristics

Image is allegedly of the note Trump wrote while editing a speech while on the way back from the G20 summit.

The top Russian-Chinese agent, Donald Trump, has decided that the pace of dedollarization and the decline of American financial hegemony is going too slowly. He has therefore decided to put tariffs on everybody; from America's largest trading partners to uninhabited islands. In the process, he is trying to create an autarkic America. Jokes aside, interpretation and analysis of this has ranged across a wide spectrum. I think we can broadly agree that the most idiotic are the "true believers"; those that actually believe Trump's every word, and that this will somehow bring back American manufacturing and whatever other inane promises he has made.

However, there is a much more interesting debate. The first camp are those who believe Trump is acting as an inadvertent accelerationist due to his lack of understanding about how the world economy and dollar hegemony functions (and that this will subsequently ensure that countries flock to China instead). The second camp are those who believe that Trump does know what he's doing, at least to a certain extent, and that the effective result of this period of madness will be countries kowtowing to the United States; renegotiating trade deals to be even more in favor of the US in order to get tariffs reduced. There's even a yet more cynical camp who believes that in fact, this entire trade war is just theater for further national wealth redistributions from poor to rich; that all these monumental international trade wars are more of a sideshow. To quote the linked article: "[...] out of the mountain of tariffs that threaten to turn into a global trade war will emerge the mouse of further tax cuts."

I'm not embarrassed to admit that I have absolutely no idea which one of these is the closest model to reality. We're in new economic and political ground, and even if the tariffs are quickly renegotiated and/or dropped, the impacts will continue to reverberate around the world for years. I'm sure we'll debate this for months to come here, though!

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1.5K comments

  • Big brain move: notice the market get too volatile and insecure, so you keep changing the economic outlook every 12 hours so that the big players don't know wtf is happening and decide to just hold out for a while and not sell anything.

    //

    On another note, it's hard to appreciate the timescale of the American empire while you're living through it. I just noticed that the possibly strongest empire in human history started to crumble after what, 70-80 years? I usually think of empires lasting for centuries, with generations and generations of a golden age.

  • Nicaragua has withdrawn its support for South Africa's case against the Apartheid entity at the ICJ, confirmed on 3 April - ICJ official post

    No immediate reason was given, but it is suspected that Trump had painted a target on Nicaragua's back and may have threatened to retaliate against the 450,000 Nicaraguans living in the US, in addition to Nicaragua's cordial relations with South Africa (who is now also being accused of complicity in 7 October, as an escalation of atrocity propaganda by the Orange Führer's friends).

    Death to ameriKKKa

  • The Antifascist International, Ecuador Chapter, denounces fraud in Ecuador's presidential election. “Faced with this emergency, we call on the Ecuadorian people to active and organized resistance. The struggle continues and must intensify in the streets.."

    The International Collective of CELAC Social denounces “the serious attack on the popular will” committed in Ecuador's presidential election. The Executive Secretariat of ALBA says that irregularities in Ecuador's runoff election suggests “the execution of a clear premeditated electoral fraud.”

  • Not sure what to think of this article. The article is originally published in Pakistan, but the author is apparently from Bangladesh:
    https://www.pressenza.com/2025/04/india-defending-chinese-threat-from-bangladeshs-soil/

    Conspiracy theories across the border may sound interesting, but equally disgusting. It is frustrating when scores of Indian so-called defense experts and former military hawks speak and write with confidence that China will establish an airbase (not a military base) in northern Bangladesh to battle the Indians to cut off the so-called ‘Chicken Neck’ or Siliguri Corridor, which physically connects India with North East states.

    The consequential theory simmering in the heads of Indian defense analysts claims that the Chinese will severe North East (which is also known as Seven Sisters) from the Chicken Neck. Incidentally, millions of Chinese soldiers (People’s Liberation Army) will invade from the northeastern Chinese borders.

    Ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Dilip Ghosh in a ‘friendly message’ in December 2024, commented that Bangladesh’s armed forces are no match for India and that Bangladesh’s political leaders should “think carefully” about the ongoing turmoil.

  • US airstrikes did continue on Yemen for the 30th night in a row, with strikes targeting a factory leading to the killing of civilians. Sana’a and Marib Governorate were targeted by multiple rounds of airstrikes. There were two significant statements from the Yemeni Armed Forces, one to do with firing Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs) at Israel, another to do with shooting down the 19th MQ-9 Reaper drone.

    The launching of MRBMs at Israel again is a significant development. It's been 14 days, exactly two weeks, since the last MRBM launch, and 17 days since the last launch of a MaRV capable Palestine-2 MRBM. So Ansarallah is fighting to maintain and rebuild capabilities amongst the intense US Navy air campaign against it. As a commentator pointed out earlier today, THAAD air defence interceptor missiles were likely used to intercept the MaRV of the Palestine-2 missile. There were pictures of the boosters online.

    As for how the MQ-9s get shot down even during the ongoing SEAD campaign, these shootdowns don't happen over Sana'a or Saada Governorates where a pathway has been opened up to allow them to operate without being shot down and even on video, but in other areas. Also, there is a surface to air loitering munition that Ansarallah have called Missile-358. It's basically a Lancet, but for taking out air targets. It's not a traditional air defence system with a radar and so forth. Perfect for slow and low flying drones in visual range like the MQ-9.

    Warning for potential graphic imagery of casualties during ongoing airstrikes:

    Al Masirah TV twitter

    Xcancel mirror

  • Vargas Llosa has died.

    Peruvian writer and politician Mario Vargas Llosa died this Sunday in Lima, where he lived with his family. Since distancing himself from left-wing politics, he has embraced right-wing politics. In 1989, The Washington Post would write that though Vargas Llosa's party appeared center-right, "he has ties with far-right politicians in other countries".

    Vargas Llosa has continued to be criticized due to his association with far-right groups and politicians. The Christian Science Monitor would call Vargas Llosa "a right-wing maverick" while Jacobin would plainly describe him as a "far-right novelist".

    Vargas Llosa has described himself as a supporter of liberalism and said that the individuals who have had most impact on his political thought have included Karl Popper, Friedrich Hayek and Isaiah Berlin. According to The Nation, Vargas Llosa would condemn leftist groups entirely due to the controversies of some while minimizing similar actions by neoliberal governments.

    He supported right-wing libertarian candidate Javier Milei in the 2023 Argentine general election. Following the arrest of Augusto Pinochet for crimes against humanity in 1999, Vargas Llosa would write an op-ed in The New York Times asking why left wing dictators were also not being arrested.

    During the 2022 Brazilian general election, Vargas Llosa expressed his endorsement for conservative leader Jair Bolsonaro. "The case of Bolsonaro it's a hard question. His jokes are very hard to endorse, for a liberal [...] Now, between Bolsonaro and Lula, I prefer Bolsonaro. Even with jokes from Bolsonaro, Lula no." said Vargas Llosa at a conference

  • Ecuador Election Update (Sources: Radio Pichincha):

    Luiza Gonzalez: denounces electoral fraud after the first official results of the ballot. “There are about 11 polls in which all of them, even those of the government itself, gave us the victory”, she emphasizes. “I denounce before my people, the media and the world that we are living a dictatorship and we are facing the worst and most grotesque electoral fraud in the history of the Republic of Ecuador”, she asserts.

    “In the name of the men, women, children and young people we represent, in the name of the people we represent, we do not recognize the results presented by the CNE”, said Luisa Gonzalez from the headquarters of Revolucion Ciudadana. She also indicated that they will request the recount of votes and the opening of the ballot boxes.

    Correristas claim they have 52% of the votes, against 48% of Daniel Narcoa

  • Stranger still, is that the gap isn't narrowing much as the CNE count progresses through provinces where the RC excels. CNE's figures suggest that Luisa didn't gain votes even with all the endorsements she received in round 1. Not even Pachakutik's votes? Inconceivable.

    • Kawsachuan News

  • CNE results site: Daniel Noboa holds a 12-point lead over Luisa González with 80.53% of votes counted.

    • Kawsachuan News

    I guess Noboa is going to win. CIA/US wins once again

  • russians struck some military ceremony in center of sumy, but hit civilians nearby :(

    what being a lib does to mfers, just strike z-man, ffs.

  • Mearsheimer has given an interview to one of the Finnish tabloid rags and this also made the national news today which was citing the tabloid article.

    The article part tries to shit on him but also states his views on how he thinks Finland joining nato was a mistake, the Finnish president is a lib and that the Ukraine war is the result of nato expansion. This might be worth reading via translate as the tabloid tries very hard to undermine his opinions, but as they try to be nuanced, it largely fails in this.

    The article seems to have 1000 comments, but those can't be read without signing into their site. That is a lot of cope for a country this size.

  • Left-wing and progressive parties in Ecuador express concern over the series of irregularities by the National Electoral Council (CNE) and the government of presidential candidate Daniel Noboa, implemented just hours before today's presidential runoff elections.

    The statement reads:

    Throughout the electoral process, we have witnessed the shameful role played by the National Electoral Council (CNE). It has failed to fulfill the functions established in the Constitution, which, among other things, mandates that it be the overseer of the electoral process and guarantor of transparency and equality for all contestants in the elections, but none of this has been fulfilled. The latest events we note below should concern and outrage all of us who defend democracy and transparency.

    • Last-minute relocation of 18 polling stations under the guise of winter weather. Rain has been ongoing for two months, and flooding has been punishing for two weeks. However, the decision was made at the last minute. Coincidentally, these changes affect the precincts where the ruling party did not perform well in the first round.
    • National government broadcasts, four times a day, in complete electoral silence, announcing alleged government actions; something that is expressly prohibited by law, but the CNE remains silent.
    • Delegations of international election observers are prevented from entering the country.
    • Use of state resources to distribute bonuses (USD 570 million), last-minute payments to state suppliers, and unofficial trips by the presidential candidate, all for the purpose of campaigning.
    • Decree of a state of emergency in 7 provinces, suspending the civil rights of inviolability of the home, correspondence, movement, and assembly; Coincidentally, these are the same provinces where presidential candidate Noboa failed to receive a favorable vote in the first round.
    • Suspension of voting for Ecuadorians in Venezuela.

    We demand that the CNE assume its responsibility and guarantee transparent elections within the framework of the law. We are vigilant for the good of the country; we will not allow them to violate democratic principles. We alert international organizations, the EU, the UN, the OAS, and civil society oversight bodies about these regrettable events that continue to affect our country's weak democracy and hinder this process of citizen participation.

  • Lmao, apparently Trump is now calling the tariff exemption "fake news." Here's the content of his Truth Social post, which is apparently now how trade policy is being "clarified."

    Monday is going to be wild.

  • Chinese Money Supply Report for March seems pretty strong after credit being anemic last year so good signs for the economy and demand outlooks i guess. And even less pressure regarding the trade war.

    M2 money supply +7.0% y/y; Est. +6.1%;

    M1 money supply +1.6% y/y; Est. +0.3%;

    M0 money supply +11.5% y/y; Prev. +9.7%;

    Aggregate financing 5.9 trillion yuan, Prev. 2.23;

    New yuan loans 2.23 trillion yuan, Prev. 0.74.

    Problem with credit in the last couple of years and especially last year is that since forever land sales were critical to the credit formation process because they drove the leveraged generation of loans through a number of asset collateralization processes. This is where the money for all other local economic activities came from. But that wasnt viable anymore so one of the central sturctual tranformations of the Chinese economy is to delink credit generation from land sales and towards more mature financial insturments, and that cant be seperated from the general crack down of real estate speculation and deflating that bubble. So especially during last year the "fountainhead" for the credit cycle was locked up because of the land finance wind down. Credit going back to normal seems to indicate there has been substantial progress in that aspect and maybe the economy is beyond the more shaky phase.

    Mechanically, the credit impulse drives the demand cycle, not vice versa. Availability of money is what determines demand. Demand does not determine availability of money. So demand problems were in large part downstream of that. Reticence from households to spend due to property value deflation was only a secondary problem. The primary problem was squeezed incomes and business revenue from a slow moving liquidity lockup.

  • Teen kills parents in attempt to gain funds to assassinate Trump. The teen was linked to the Order of Nine Angels, a neo-nazi/pedophile group originating in the UK. (Huge CW for looking up this group or any related groups for violence, pedophilia, animal cruelty, suicide)

    Anyone have any thoughts on ONA or related groups like 764 and terrorgram? They feel very parapolitical to me in a strategy of tension kind of way. They've been linked to multiple terror attacks across Europe and the Americas, oftentimes carried out by people as young as 14. Right wing accelerationism seems to be on an upswing since COVID.

  • US airstrikes continue on Yemen for the 29th night in a row, with multiple rounds of airstrikes targeting the Al Bayda', Saada and Hodeidah Governorates. I think this is the first time Al Bayda' has been hit in this campaign, feel free to check me on that as usual, I can and probably will make mistakes, I'm only human and it's been almost a month of continuous airstrikes now, so it's difficult to keep track of it all.

    9 airstrikes in Marib Governorate, with 5 targeting Mount Hailan, according to other sources.

    Warning for potential graphic imagery of casualties during ongoing airstrikes:

    Al Masirah TV twitter

    Xcancel mirror

    A commentator also mentioned Saudi Arabian shelling of Saada last night, and yeah orher sources collaborated that.

  • During a pro-Palestine demonstration at the National Assembly in Cape Town, activist and leader of Cape Town Intifada Uzair Mohamed was unlawfully detained by authorities, in a pattern that resembles similiar crackdowns in the US and Europe. Following immediate outrage of an illegal arrest, the charges were shifted to wearing a mask (which isn't illegal).

    The Western Cape province is also headed by the pro-Western, liberal Diet Apartheid Democratic Alliance party and some of the most fanatical pro-piSSraeli entities such as the SAJBD draw large amount of support in Cape Town. A few days after the arrest, several Members of Parliament of both the Democratic Alliance and Patriotic Alliance also had made a trip to the Nazi state on the opposite end of the African continent.

    The illegal arrest of Uzair Mohamed and attempts to suppress pro-Palestinian activism is largely only unique to Cape Town and are at most, infrequent in other major cities such as Johannesburg, Pretoria or Durban. - SAJFP, Salaamedia

  • Looks like we have our first F-16 shot down by Russia in Ukraine now. Both Russian and Ukrainian sources (including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy) have confirmed that an F-16 was lost in combat.

    Zelenskyy's statement

    Xcancel mirror

    Today, Captain Pavlo Ivanov was tragically killed during an F-16 combat mission. The guy was only 26. My condolences to his family and to all of Pavlo’s brothers-in-arms.

    As I've already discussed, the early model F-16s Ukraine got are roughly equivalent to their MiG-29s in capability, only being superior in electronic countermeasures (ECM) and native support for American munitions. These early 4th generation aircraft aren't a match for Russian 4.5 generation fighters in a straight fight.

    The Ukrainian F-16s have also been relying exclusively on this ECM (provided by the external AN/ALQ-131 external pod) and terrain masking (flying low close to the ground) to suppress Russian Ground Based Air Defense (GBAD), and flying with no anti radiation missiles for suppressing these defences. While a successful tactic up until now, it's highly risky. If the ECM fails or is bypassed, the pilot has no way to suppress any GBAD firing at them. If you look at the Russian air campaign in Ukraine, the escort fighters or strike fighters carrying out the strikes themselves (in Su-35s and Su-34s) are always carrying at least one Kh-31P anti radiation missile. In the US Navy air campaign against Yemen, the EA-18G Growlers are flying escort missions with at least two AGM-88E anti radiation missiles, along with highly advanced ECM that is much more sophisticated than the AN/ALQ-131.

    I'm not a fighter pilot, but if I was and you told me I had to fly a strike mission in a block 20 F-16 for Ukraine in Sumy, where our high level friendly Ukrainian GBAD (in an S-300V battery) has been destroyed, and I'm going up against the best of the best Russian GBAD and combat air patrols in S-400 GBAD and Su-35 fighter jets, and I'll have to fly a nap of the earth/terrain masking flight path to the launch point for my bombs, with only an ECM pod and no anti radiation missiles to suppress the Russian GBAD, and that there would be no allied Ukrainian aircraft higher up with anti radiation missiles to act as an escort, and all I have to try fend off the Russian Su-35s is the crappy radar on the block 20 F-16, along with 2 AIM-120 and AIM-9 air to air missiles, I would not fly the mission.

  • Leaked Data Reveals Massive Israeli [sic] Campaign to Remove Pro-Palestine Posts on Facebook and Instagram | Drop Site News

    A sweeping crackdown on posts on Instagram and Facebook that are critical of Israel [sic]—or even vaguely supportive of Palestinians—was directly orchestrated by the government of Israel [sic], according to internal Meta data obtained by Drop Site News. The data show that Meta has complied with 94% of takedown requests issued by Israel [sic] since October 7, 2023. Israel [sic] is the biggest originator of takedown requests globally by far, and Meta has followed suit—widening the net of posts it automatically removes, and creating what can be called the largest mass censorship operation in modern history.

  • Maybe im naive but the Trump administration, despite being staffed to the brim with insane China hawks, folding on its "anti-china economic warfare" before even starting it can be spinned into a more optimistic view on the prospects of hot US-China war. The murikans dont seem to have it in them. With the first sign of things getting tough, the US folded like a cheap tent. Just the prospect of things going to shit was enough. No prices have increased, nobody lost their job, nobody has been deprived of anything real. Some numbers on screens went up or down and the powers that be forced Trump’s hand. Even if instead of chaotic and incompetent it was some calculated and competent plan for a US-China clash, at some point most of these pressures and prospects would have arisen all the same and at the end of the day it wouldnt have much better chances to win against China. Will they really decide to destroy everything in a nuclear holocaust when the decision for a hot war is there when they couldnt even let the bond market freak out for more than 5 days ? Just as them losing the trade war (or at least not having the capacity to execute it without country breaking consequences) became obvious within days, the fact that they would lose any war close to China shores in 2028 or whenever will also sink in. Especially with the trajectory of both countries. It may still be possible to sustain that delusion in the big 2025 and rig war games to barely tie the engagement but its rapidly becoming less possible, especially after this whole debacle conlcudes

  • Indirect US-Iran negotiations have started in Oman. President Trump is willing to make concessions in order to reach a deal with Iran, per U.S. Officials

    Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, will ONLY discuss the issue of nuclear proliferation – not the ballistic missile program or Iran's support for regional groups. These two additional demands are a no-go for Iran, and the Supreme Leader has not authorized the Foreign Ministry to even discuss them. If the Americans push on either of these two topics, the negotiations are over.

    Iranian media report that the first signs of the negotiations in Oman are 'positive'

    The indirect talks between Iran and the United States in Oman will 'conclude today' and not extend into tomorrow, and there is currently no truth to a direct meeting between Witkoff and Araqchi

    Immediately following the first round of negotiations in Oman, the Iranian Rial rose sharply against the US Dollar, going from 97,000 USD per Toman to 92,900 USD per Toman

    'The indirect talks in Oman were constructive and held in a generally positive atmosphere, and they lasted approximately 2.5 hours. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araqchi talked briefly face-to-face in the presence of the Omani Foreign Minister after the end of the first round of negotiations. The talks will continue, and the exact timing and date will be announced in the near future.

    We will not allow any country, including the United States, to go too far and impose unrealistic demands upon us. The Qajar and Pahlavi eras are over, and this is the era of the great Islamic Iran, which holds its head high.'

    Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi: 'While leaving the negotiations room, we encountered the U.S. Envoy, Steve Witkoff, and exchanged greetings out of courtesy, as is customary in diplomacy. Nothing content-related was said.'

    'Today we have come close to a 'basis' on which negotiations can be held – Saturday we will continue, and start the negotiation process, including the timetable'

    'The discussions took place in a calm and polite atmosphere, and the American side did not issue any threats'

    'Both sides want a deal in the short-term, and not fruitless negotiations that drag on for months or years, but this won't be easy

    • Telegram

  • Everybody’s been talking about the tariffs, but thoughts on the Iran talks? The military buildup over the last month looks like it was to force Iran to negotiate on their nuclear program. If a deal can’t be reached, I think we’ll see strikes against their nuclear facilities.

  • With today's negotiations between the USA and Russia over the Ukraine war now concluded in St Petersburg, and negotiations between the USA and Iran taking place tomorrow in Oman, what's everyone's thoughts on this? It would be cool if we could all give our opinions and discuss, even if we disagree with each other of course. Open debate is always best, even with such highly serious topics. These are some of the most important negotiations in modern history. If they fail, we could be looking at large scale warfare and associated events that could lead to the death of many and seismic shifts in the world economy that would make tarrifs look small. Or not, hopefully.

    My view is quite simple and not very insightful, the losing sides have to offer up large concessions to halt ongoing war or prevent war. Ukraine is suffering losses and losing to Russia in Ukraine, so for any "peace deal" to go through, Ukraine and the USA will have to offer some substantial concessions to Russia, such as the four oblasts in the east (or even more territory) becoming effectively Russian, future elections, no NATO, etc. If those concessions are not offered, Russia will continue the war until it reaches it's ultimate conclusion. On the other hand, Iran has suffered some substantial losses in its Axis of Resistance network, and it's deterrence is at a historical low (no Operation True Promise III/Israeli attack on Iranian soil not responded to, large US military buildup in the region), so Iran will have to offer some substantial concessions to the USA and Israel around it's uranium enrichment levels, nuclear program and potentially other assets like the Axis of Resistance, otherwise I believe the USA and Israel will go to war against Iran.

    Do hexbears think the fate of Ukraine and Iran is linked somehow between the two potential deals? Can Russia play an important role in preventing war against Iran and brokering a "nuclear deal"? Can the USA play a vital role in getting Ukraine to offer up large concessions in exchange for pausing the war there and achieving a "peace deal"? I certainly hope that in both cases peace can be achieved obviously, but if war is inevitable it will happen.

    On a lighter note, is Pezeshkian the Iranian Gorbachev? Is Zelenskyy the Ukrainian Churchill?

  • nitter.net | xcancel | twitter

    i don't think the Trump regime is "stupid" so much as i think they have had trouble coming to a unified plan of attack. It's obvious there are very real divisions between figures like Navarro, Musk, and Bessent/Miran; and the fickle 78 year old at the center is struggling with it

    So Trump comes out swinging on Obliteration Day and goes full "no compromise" Navarro, then he gets pushback from the generally anti-tariff Musk, and what emerges is a warped version of the "country buckets" Bessent/Miran targeted tariff approach (tho it bears the Navarro scars).

    The political establishment is incredibly fractured, and that includes the Republican party. That's why Trump is able to get away with such big initiatives without real challenge, but it's also why his actions seem pulled into different, contradictory, directions.

    best take I've seen on the tariffs, i think the insider trading is just a side job. from a follow up tweet, engels actually wrote about this in an abstract way lol https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1890/letters/90_09_21.htm#%3A%7E%3Atext=For+what+each+individual+wills%2Cthe+same+laws+of+motion

  • Google has blurred the Starykostyantyniv Air Base in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Ukraine. This airfield was attacked by Kalibr cruise missiles in the recent missile attack and has been a prime target for other missile attacks and drones. It is also believed to house F-16s.

    https://t.me/AMK_Mapping/9124

    "Blurred" makes it sound somewhat innocent, but if you look at it on Google Maps, it's clearly a thorough censorship job with deliberately chosen areas to "blur" (probably cut out, replaced with old imagery, and blurred).

1513 comments