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  • correct.

    there's also the maybe more important scientific literature ban that is forcing scientists like those who make sure crops grow correctly in the US out of their jobs because they aren't able to talk about the gender of the seeds they are breeding.

    or the physicists who can't talk about the "status" of the material they're using, because that word is banned.

    countries don't want to buy American military equipment anymore because they rightly cannot trust the US, which is a huge loss of revenue.

    the disastrously policies already enacted are going to economically and socially hobble the country for decades.

    the scientist who goes to another country rather than the US to practice physics, agriculture, anthropology, anything, that's an entire career of innovation and scientific benefit lost to the US.

    and those scientists are already avoiding the us, that's already happening.

    the market numbers are the tip of the iceberg here.

  • This is my opinion, but yeah. It'll take some time.

    The biggest issue is that money has moved to safer for investments. Those new investments may take time to mature and/or avoid tax penalties.

    Another component is that hedge funds are likely the ones taking money out of the market in a huge way right now. Hedge funds normally specialize in short selling and there is no better time to close or massively reduce those short positions. (They have other strategies, but their main function is in their name.) They can't close their positions rapidly, or it will trigger a faux rebound in stock prices. (Short sales are weird like that. It may be one of the reasons you see short bounces in price as a stock price is cratering.)

    Unfortunately, the tarrifs are shifting investment policy against the US now from other countries. This will take years to recover from.

    What will really suck is that I have always speculated that these tarrifs are just the worst kind of insider trading strategy you will ever see. If the intent was to temporarily dump stock prices for the benefit of a few, I really don't think it's going to work like it did during COVID. COVID didn't force massive global policy changes against the US the same way. Even if orange man decides to reverse course and lift tarrifs tomorrow, the damage has been done and there is no reason to restore previous investments. The risk is too high.

52 comments