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Trump Lost. Vote Suppression Won.

"If the purges [of potential voters], challenges and ballot rejections were random, it wouldn’t matter. It’s anything but random. For example, an audit by the State of Washington found that a Black voter was 400% more likely than a white voter to have their mail-in ballot rejected. Rejection of Black in-person votes, according to a US Civil Rights Commission study in Florida, ran 14.3% or one in seven ballots cast."

"[...] Democracy can win* despite the 2.3% suppression headwind.

And that’s our job as Americans: to end the purges, the vigilante challenges, the ballot rejections and the attitude that this is all somehow OK."

274 comments
  • One lesson 2020 should have taught everyone and that's vote by mail WORKS.

    Lifting the restrictions on vote by mail for Covid won the election for Biden, and replacing those restrictions in 2024 lost it for Harris.

    We should have 100% vote by mail in all states.

    • vote by mail WORKS.

      Which is why red states didn't want to use it. Can't stay in power if you don't suppress votes.

    • One lesson 2020 should have taught everyone and that’s vote by mail WORKS.

      It was a lesson national administrators learned. That's why it was heavily clawed back. 2020 was a big year for Popular Socialist Candidates. Neither party enjoyed a wave year that included The Squad and put a guy like Bernie Sanders in arm's reach of Biden after Super Tuesday.

      We should have 100% vote by mail in all states.

      Republicans have been outspoken in opposition to mail-in voting, particularly for younger college-aged voters. But even Dems are lackluster in their support for full enfranchisement, on the grounds that higher participation tends to make controlling primaries more difficult and expensive (the NY-14 upset by AOC being a classic example).

      Incidentally How Voting Laws Have Changed in Battleground States Since 2020: Most have made it harder to vote, but others have expanded access.

  • Once again, Trump said (during his first term, I believe) on Fox News Republicans would never win another election if minorities vote. They know this. They consistently make it harder and harder for people to vote, while targeting minorities.

    • Once again, Trump said (during his first term, I believe) on Fox News Republicans would never win another election if minorities vote.

      He was wrong. A big part of the '24 GOP wave came from young male latino and black voters who were entranced by the get-rich-quick promises of Trump/Vance. Online hustler culture on social media has been a huge driving force behind conservative voter expansion.

      How 5 key demographic groups voted in 2024: AP VoteCast

      • Trump’s share of Black voters rose slightly, driven largely by younger men
      • Slightly more Hispanic voters supported Trump in 2020
      • Narrow gains with (white) women benefitted Trump
      • Trump saw a modest increase with men

      Republicans have been leveraging their "business friendly" credentials to win over poorer POC voters for a while. And as Democrats adopt the same strategy, we're running into the same problem as in 2000 and 1988 - voters aren't able to distinguish between candidates on economic issues.

      For POC women voters, the divisions are more stark. But for men of any shade, Dem decay in social media (their active war on left-leaning TikTok being a huge unforced error in an environment that's trended hard-right since the Obama admin) and their refusal to deliver on college debt relief, cheap housing, cheap mass transit, or public health care is leaving Republicans with a huge discontented block of younger voters to poach.

274 comments