You'd Have to Be On Mushrooms to Believe Trump Is Beating Biden By 20 Points Among Young Voters
You'd Have to Be On Mushrooms to Believe Trump Is Beating Biden By 20 Points Among Young Voters
If the polling is this wacky, why bother publishing it at all?
If the polling is this wacky, why bother publishing it at all?
Over the weekend, ABC and the Washington Post published the results of a poll that made both operations look like its results were the product of a month-long exercise with a Magic 8-Ball. The way you know it was an embarrassment is the Post story about the poll began by telling us all we should probably ignore it completely.
The Post-ABC poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 percentage points at this early stage in the election cycle, although the sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat. The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier.
It was done entirely by phone. What person under, say, 60 answers an unknown call on their phone at this point? And if they left a voicemail to call them back, who would trust it? Basically, they're getting extremely gullible people (i.e. mostly Trump voters) to respond to the poll.
I think the only way you can do successful polling at this point is focus groups with carefully selected demographics, and I would even be dubious there.
Underestimating this discarded foreskin is what got us here in the first place.
Don't get complacent.
Don't get complacent. That's the most important takeaway. We need to not only beat Republicans, but to give them massive losses. We want them to lose by double digit margins so they realize fascism has no place in the US, and MAGA can ma-get the fuck out of here.
I'm really curious to read more about the poll itself later, just with how unusual this is. What in the methodology screwed it up? Or do they just have an incredibly wide confidence interval?
It's also worth remembering I think, polling was very wrong in the midterms. They suggested at best that Republicans would win by a little bit, and at worst the "red tidal wave". And we know now it was a trickle, that they can't even claim as a total victory. Dems gained a Senate seat, and a lot of important state government positions in swing states.
There's a few causes for this mismatch I believe:
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There's a lot of shitty Republicans pollsters these days that provide a lot of low quality data.
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Analysts overcorrected their models after 2020 and it undercounts Democrats.
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The huge backlash for overturning Roe isn't being captured in polls for some reason. Abortion continues to be a huge issue that's benefitting Democrats. The economy and inflation were thought to be the largest drivers for the midterms, but if they were, people saw Democrats as the solution for that.
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Putting aside a LOT of other issues, the reason we’re seeing more polls that are very clearly nonsense is twofold:
- spam calls have proliferated to an absolutely absurd degree, to the extent that most people refuse to pick up the phone unless it’s a known contact - and even that’s not necessarily a sure bet, because caller id can be trivially spoofed.
- the mainstream media “outrage narrative”, which drives engagement/addictive consumer behavior/ad views - it behooves media networks who sell ads to present as many situations as possible as a toss-up, regardless of whether or not that’s an accurate representation, simply in the interest of profit.
Trump might not be 20 points ahead of Biden, but you'd better fucking turn out at the poll like he is.
Fuck Trump. He belongs in prison.
Don't insult mushrooms like this, lmao, what did they ever do to hurt you?
"You'd have to be on mushrooms to think Trump will become president" > an annoying lot of people pre-2016.
If the young people that actually go out to vote happen to be the ones that like Trump, Tate, Musk and the like, then yeah, he can pull 100% ahead of Biden.
Polling is vote manipulative.
They publish it to try and suppress voters to make them feel like there's no chance. Then when they lose they can claim election fraud because the bogus polling had them winning. It's a common tactic Conservatives use now to suppress votes. People need to show up no matter what the polling or news is saying.
Don't knock mushrooms. They actually help you clear your mind and make good decisions.
Good for them for publishing an outlier poll while framing it appropriately. It happens, and releasing anyway shows integrity.
I have absolutely no intention of voting for Trump, but if you ask me on a poll about it, I might tell the pollster that I plan to vote for Trump. I don’t want people getting too comfortable with an assumed outcome ever again.
Mid 20s gen z here. I'll be sure to vote for Biden. All in all he's pretty alright in my book. Sure things could be better, but that's going to take a bit more time, hopefully his successors will be better.
Pffft.. I've been microdosing for years and I would never believe that shit!
Here's a writeup by FiveThirtyEight that happens to now be a part of ABC but didn't participate in this pill: How outlier polls happen — and what to do with them
Now let’s watch how quickly that piece of shit coward uses these polls to validate his tyrannical campaign to rule America. And remember: these are the “fake news networks.”
Honesty don’t understand how his dipshit supported can’t see how it’s always fake new when it’s negative, but when the most “untrustworthy” and hated news sources suddenly post things that are positive towards him- they magically become accurate.
You’ve got to be braindead to make any logical sense from that.
Polling has fallen into the same problem as everything else, they just skew the methods to make the numbers fit a narrative, be that the person paying them or some misguided ideas. Polling has been shit for years now, just ignore it
Msuhrooms sound real good, guess that's a plan for the weekend.
You'd have to be a fox "news" watcher.
More bullshit from our bullshit media ~ "Can't understand how a high plains grifter got elected!?"
Depends on what exactly each poll is asking or saying.
If you go by popular vote, Biden could be well ahead in that demographic.
But 1) Not all young people vote, andas a whole they lag far behind compared to other age groups, particularly ages 45+
And 2) The popular vote is greatly negated by the electoral college.
So If you want to become President, one way is to appeal to what old people in Red states can be persuaded to believe.
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