Some thought Hollywood might use AI to replace human workers. It seems the opposite is happening, individuals using AI are about to replace much of Hollywood's output.
Some thought Hollywood might use AI to replace human workers. It seems the opposite is happening, individuals using AI are about to replace much of Hollywood's output.
This data is courtesy of Dan Shapiro.
As there are only so many people and hours in the day, the market for human attention is finite. Hollywood is spending more money to make TV and movies, but its market share is declining. People, especially younger people, are far more likely to watch videos on the internet made by small creators. Needless to say, the small content creators' costs are vastly cheaper. AI is rapidly making them cheaper still.
And it's not just that small creators using AI-generation will displace Hollywood's existing efforts; they are likely to create new artforms that will displace the old screen/broadcast formats of TV shows & movies too. AI-gen artforms, as yet uninvented, may be real-time rendered, personalized for individuals, hyper-niche, etc, etc
This is all part of a surprising trend with AI, its tendency towards decentralization. Some dommerist nightmares see all powerful corporations in the future, but as with open-source AI & robotics equalling the Big Tech efforts, the trend seems more for AI's power to be dispersed.
I don't understand people that think like this...
Do they think the prompt they type in will be so much better than what Hollywood types in that it negates the insane discrepancy in hardware and AI time?
It just makes zero sense to me, but people have been saying it for years now.
Like arguing the 2nd amendment means we can pull a Wolverines against an actual government.
There's a lot more small people, so the odds are massively in their favor. Also, using AI tools to make content is not just writing a prompt. If you are going to make videos of any length and depth, then you are utilizing a number of various tools. Just think of all the view time that silly TikTok videos have taken from Hollywood, now imagine people putting in the same amount of effort and ending up with much more impressive results since they have AI to use as a tool.
Two years ago, making something like Unanswered Oddities would have taken many months and a lot of money, now it can be done in an afternoon by someone creative.
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL14oiCokyIUUgHiNR-rPqavC9bPbm46U9&si=dR3dkeW4m5bmIjUw
Not to get too off topic, but you're thinking of the idiocy of an AR-15 vs. a helicopter. There are a shitload of people and systems that make it possible to fly that helicopter.
SOURCES:
Vietnam
Afghanistan
Syria
Etc.
And imagine how fascist these fascist would be if they knew they could knock down every door without fear.
This tendency towards decentralization you're seeing is an illusion. Open-source doesn't change the fact that you need compute and the compute isn't decentralized. It's highly centralized in extremely expensive (both in terms of resources and energy) server farms. Even if content is decentralizing out of Hollywood it's still physically centralized.
Also, this tendency towards content decentralization will not last. Right now the whole AI industry operates at a loss because they don't expect profits, so small creators can use these tools because they're artificially cheap. Every company wants to capture market share in the short term so they can profit at a later point. Eventually they're going to want to profit and costs for content creators will skyrocket... and they'll just stop using it. Then the whole thing will crash.
I mean, you could theoretically use decentralised computers for training. Even that aside, though, they only have to train these things once and then it just works on anything; the bell will not be unrung like that.
then the whole thing will crashthem only the super rich mega corps will be able to produce such content and we'll have lost entire generation(s) of people learning how to make art, photograph, film, etc. as they "had AI to do it growing up."I reaaaaaaaaaaally want and hope you are right. We can't get rid of all this AI crap soon enough.
We can’t get rid of all this AI crap soon enough.
More importantly, how are we going to get rid of this Hollywood crap?
AI is in its infancy, and I'm pretty sure a lot of AI services are sold below cost right now. This situation could change drastically if the monetization model changes. On that note, AFAIK YouTube, which hosts much of the content that small creators produce, still isn't profitable.
In 2023, YouTube's advertising revenue totaled $31.7 billion, a 2% increase from the $31.1 billion reported in 2022. From Q4 2023 to Q3 2024, YouTube's combined revenue from advertising and subscriptions exceeded $50 billion. (from wiki)
Pretty sure youtube is doing fine.