China's Xi Jinping goes after economist who questioned China's official GDP numbers, saying the country's real growth rates in recent years were closer to 2% annually, not 5% as claimed by authorities
China's Xi Jinping goes after economist who questioned China's official GDP numbers, saying the country's real growth rates in recent years were closer to 2% annually, not 5% as claimed by authorities
Gao Shanwen, chief economist at state-owned SDIC Securities, had suggested that China’s real economic growth in recent years may have been closer to 2% annually, not 5% as claimed by authorities. Now, he has been banned from public speaking indefinitely
Gao Shanwen, chief economist at state-owned SDIC Securities, had suggested that China’s real economic growth {measured by the Gross Domestic Product, GDP] in recent years may have been closer to 2% annually, not 5% as claimed by authorities. Now, he has been banned from public speaking indefinitely.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has reportedly ordered an investigation into a prominent economist who questioned the credibility of Beijing’s official GDP figures and criticised the government’s economic policies.
Gao Shanwen, chief economist at state-owned SDIC Securities, has been banned from public speaking for an indefinite period, Washington Post reported citing individuals familiar with the matter.
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The move came after Gao’s remarks at a Washington forum last month, where he suggested that China’s real economic growth in recent years may have been closer to 2 per cent annually, well below the 5 per cent claimed by authorities. Gao also expressed scepticism about the government’s ability to effectively implement measures to stimulate growth.
“We do not know the true number of China’s real growth figure,” Gao had said during the December 12 event co-hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a Chinese think tank. He speculated that the actual growth rate might be significantly lower than official data suggested.
Xi is said to have been angered by Gao’s remarks, ordering that he be disciplined. Although Gao has retained his job, his public engagements have been curtailed. A planned lecture at China’s Nankai University was abruptly cancelled in January, reportedly due to “scheduling conflicts.”
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This crackdown on Gao comes as Beijing seeks to manage growing concerns over its economic trajectory. China’s economy faces mounting challenges, including a real estate crisis that has eroded household wealth by an estimated $18 trillion, rising debt nearing 300 per cent of GDP, and industrial overcapacity. Analysts have raised concerns about the risk of a deflationary spiral.
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Beijing has intensified efforts to suppress negative commentary about the economy, with senior officials urging tighter control over economic messaging. In a recent meeting, Cai Qi, Xi’s chief of staff, called for greater “expectation management” to counteract pessimism.
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More recently, discrepancies between official data and other economic indicators, such as wage growth and exports, have fuelled scepticism among economists.
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Such a slowdown would challenge Xi’s goal of doubling the nation’s economic output by 2035.
So that means he was right.
Yeah sure, I bet China's economy is going to stop improving conditions for its people and stop building infrastructure and collapse any day now.
Your comment reflects a tendency to prioritize appearances over structural critique, echoing the rhetoric of capitalist development. It is crucial to recognize that China’s claims of "lifting people out of poverty" and "building infrastructure" serve as ideological justifications for the contradictions inherent in its system—a system that, despite its nominal commitment to socialism, increasingly operates within the framework of global capitalism.
GDP growth, real or exaggerated, is not an end that inherently benefits the proletariat. It masks the exploitation of labor, the suppression of dissent, and the commodification of essential resources, all hallmarks of capitalist production. While infrastructure projects may symbolize "progress," they often come at the cost of dispossession, ecological destruction, and deepening inequalities—a logic that mirrors the global capitalist order.
The repression of Gao Shanwen illustrates the prioritization of state legitimacy over the dialectical process of critique and reform, which socialism should embrace. Instead of addressing the material realities of stagnating wages, housing crises, and debt spirals, China leans into controlling "expectations," reinforcing an ideology of growth as virtue while deflecting accountability for structural shortcomings.
This is not the collapse of an economy but the entrenchment of capitalist contradictions. True progress lies not in GDP metrics but in the emancipation of labor from exploitation and the alignment of development with human and ecological needs.
This is one of these pseudo-intellectual comments pretending knowledge but indeed explains nothing. Unfortunately this is widespread here on Lemmy.
Another issue- China's official CO2 emissions target is set in units of CO2 / GDP - if the GDP is that much lower, so should be the emissions (and unlike some countries, it seems they actually care about being seen to meet such targets).
Wow, lying about numbers to improve public approval. Are we sure Xi isn't a GOP figure?