2mo ago

You heard it here first: Bashar Assad might be dead

Flight path of a plane that took off from Damascus shorty after news broke that Assad left the city towards unknown destination, which might have been Latakia on Syrian coast which is still under SAA control as of now. Terrain in place where flightradar stopped tracking that plane isn't especially suited for emergency landing

Shortly after crash Syrian Army Command informs officers about fall of the regime https://xcancel.com/Alhadath_Brk/status/1865587913817305454#m

update: it's not spoofed transponder data or controlled landing, locals reported plane crash in the area. rumors so far, but dawn will break soon in Syria and we'll know https://xcancel.com/Schizointel/status/1865593800678130081#m

clarification: there's some chance that Assad went out of Damascus before on other, private jet, so it's not sure and it's all conjecture on unproven information

update 2: there's a claim by Russian media that Assad is in Moscow, so he would have to flee on some earlier plane, but no photos as of now. Still, looked mildly credible at the time

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this is the kind of superpower that chronic insomnia gets you
join our matrix channel for more noncredible news

You know when NCD has actual writeups and citations shit is getting real. Getting Wagner coup vibes, what a time to be alive where we can glimpse into the sausage of geopolitics being made in real time.
- Idk, it feels a little too credible for me...

Honestly guys, it's not the first time I got breaking world news from this community and I am disappointed, I thought this was non-credible?
- Yes, but to be truly non-credible, one must first poses great knowledge and insight.
  
  "It takes a wise man to be truly stupid"- Sun Tzu
- The funniest part is it may be days before news starts reporting he was probably on this plane. They'll want to wait for some sort of confirmation, which probably doesn't exist.
- n in ncd stands for news

Can we speed run the Russsian collapse as well?
It’s going to shit me if Putin falls on the 22nd Jan so the orange boofhead can claim the credit.
- Would he claim credit, or announce a day off mourning?
  
  Probably both he usually takes both sides on every issue at some point.
  At least the balkanisation and collapse of Russia will be a simple thing for such a stable genius to manage.
- My conspiracy theory is that Trump will "Talk tough" to Putin and "tell him" to back off and take only "minor" concessions to end the war. He gets to claim that he ended it, look how strong and diplomatic he can be. Putin will spin it differently back home, nobody will buy it but nobody will care because the sanctions will be lifted and money will start flowing.
  The Ukraine wont get NATO admission, the US will block it but they will be a whole lot better off than if Trump just removed all US support and the bombing will stop so they wont like it, but the alternative is losing the whole country.

One of the rare cases where I hear of a death and check wikipedia to still see the word "is". I wonder how long confirmation will take.
- There may be no changes on the article yet, but there's a lot of ongoing discussion at the Discussion page of the article:
  
  German Wikipedia already has past tense and a small paragraph about Assad leaving the country for an unknown location.

I did hear it here first, you're right.
- No, I heard it first here.
  
  We heard it here first, comrade.
- I didn't. OP is wrong.
  
  Well you did hear it here first. It's just it wasn't true.

Today is a day of victory for chins everywhere

Nooooooo you can't break credible news on NCD!!1!!! 😭
NCD: Haha Illusion-76 go brrrrrrr (crash)
- not a great year for them

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2024/8-december-03-syrian-armed-opposition-the-free-syrian-people
- yeah this also
  he was done either way as damascus was handed over few hours ago
  
  Yea, it's amazing how fast this can go down. Been F5ing Live UA map every few hours the last few days and almost every time there were notable changes.
  This also cements Russia's loss of their only notable Mediterranean port.

Holy fuck lol. I sorta called it.
- well it still could have been friendly fire

Holy shit! The Russians shot him out of the sky??
- that would be pretty stupid so it's definitely an option
  we can guess that 1. assad was on that plane, and 2. it did something that looked like a bad malfunction and 3. there are rumors of plane crash in the area. maybe it was some stupid reason like mechanical malfunction, or maybe friendly fire from russian S300 at Tartus, or maybe unfriendly fire from whatever SAM HTS now has. or something else
  
  Or ground crew sabotage.
- The plane flew over opposition controlled territory in Homs, and then it started losing altitude very fast. I think the Russians didn't have the chance of doing anything funny this time.

I watched that live. The video from the airport a few minutes before was surreal.
- Link plz this is crazy
- i watched it on flightradar, link?
  
  https://www.flightradar24.com/SYR9218/3844aec1
  Sorry I don't remember the original source but here's the video. https://files.catbox.moe/2n2y9q.mp4

I hope to see trump flee to Russia one day.
- I hope he doesn't get the chance to abscond and is held accountable for his crimes. Not likely to happen but one can dream.
  
  I'm just in it for the complete validation of everything we've been saying for years.
  
  Yeah but planes tend to fall out of the sky for no reason around there
- No! No. No-no-no. Take him and Putin as a gift. Volodin says Putin is national treasure.

Good example of why you don't trust internet "journalism."
It's just a rumour until you get confirmation from the AP. People tend to think the mainstream media is hiding things, but it's usually down to them not publishing unconfirmed rumours while the internet will. And here's an example of why that is. Many of these things wind up being false. It's better to hear about what actually happened two days later than spend time forming opinions about what might have happened right now.
- It's better to hear about what actually happened two days later than spend time forming opinions about what might have happened right now
  Lmao do you know where you are??? This is NCD, I have recklessly violent opinions over shit that only exists in my head.
  
  camera pans warthunder arguing over about millimeters of handrail on a 20 year old tank
- you don't have to get AP article for every claim, but it helps. if you can get geolocated footage, that's still a bit better than just rumors, many of these maps work this way. this time a few things were missing
- You're giving journalists way to much credit. The Pulitzer Prize was named after a man who started the Spanish American war by making shit up.

True? False? You still heard it here, first!
- Claim your 'I was here' tickets now!

Curious if this is just another straw, or maybe enough to motivate Russian citizens to start dealing with all this hay.

Oh come on, its not like the rebels would have any anti aircraft systems... Other then the odd Pantsir, maybe a BUK or two. And even if they did, why would they need anything like that marching on the last stronghold of the regime? /s
- Buk (TEL) lacks a radar. Pantsir or MANPADS lacks range (7km altitude give or take). Either they networked radar to Buk, or made these super old S75 work, or planted bomb onboard like with Prigozhin, or something else. It's also possible that F35 sneaked around and took it down with A2A missile, not that we'll ever see it
  
  7km altitude give or take
  The ADS-B data puts it as descending between 23 and 22 thousand feet. That's below 7km.

BBC article mentioning this flight. A tweet from FR24 says that the aircraft "was old with an older transponder generation, so some data might be bad or missing", that it was "flying in an area of GPS jamming, so some data might be bad", and that there was not aware of any airports in the area where the signal was lost.

Russia claim he's already in Russia, but I've seen no footage of him yet. It's entirely possible he's in the wreckage.

There's no evidence this was Assad (and the flight path directly over Homs instead of e.g. into Iraq makes it implausible), but it seems like it was almost definitely a plane crash.
- i understand that he tried to get to Latakia, which is beyond mountain range and still SAA held at that time
  Dawn just broke in Syria so we'll know today

Brother delet this
- nah
  it seemed plausible when it happened. i still think it's likely that that plane crashed, there's a red dot on FIRMS map for 8.12 around that area that wasn't there before or after. there's a SAM site (S-125) at 34.707328, 36.788321 near Homs and there floated a photo of these missiles on liveuamap. whether these were used in this incident, or usable at all, is different question

81 comments