India Is Now Russia’s No. 2 Supplier of Restricted Technology

Not that I'm going to disagree about the waning power of a dying empire, but India has historically charted its own course in regards to its international relations and dealings i.e. the Non-Aligned Movement of the Cold War.

It knows that it's a critical partner of the US Security State in regards to China, as well as being a significant regional power of its own. So it can buck US power a bit more openly and flagrantly when it comes to securing their own national interests.

It's also on average, a poorer country, relative to its size and influence. These trade deals are largely predicated upon India taking advantage of Russia's weakened position as a global energy exporter, and getting cut rate deals on Russian oil imports.

I believe India is also a huge importer of Russian grain and fertilizer, which I imagine they're also getting good deals on as well, given the current global dynamics.

You'll never catch me defending Modi, but you also won't catch me moralizing about developing, or underdeveloped, countries prioritizing their own energy and food supplies, over external concerns.

And I haven't even touched on the practical national security ties India has with Russia as one of its larger military industrial partners. Even as India is now, or planning on, moving away from Russian arms, they still rely on Russian industry for help maintaining their existing kit. That's just how arms exports works, it's why the global arms trade is so heavily linked to alliances. As an importer of a complex weapon systems, you have to trust that the source country isn't going to cut you off during a conflict, and can be relied upon to fulfill their production and service/support contracts. So for India to sever ties, or even openly embarrass Putin, could significantly weaken their national defense posture and preparedness.

Ironically, the war in Ukraine has shown Russia to be an unreliable partner because they have to redirect orders to their own front lines. This has been one of the important contributing factors for India to start moving away from Russian arms. But in the meantime, they still have a lot of Russian kit in active service.

And I say all this as an avid supporter of Ukraine, and someone who has long advocated for significantly larger, more advanced, and consistent, weapons transfers, and loosening restrictions on their use.

I included that last bit, because a lot of people tend to view acknowledging the fact that a lot of developing and poorer countries still rely on Russia for critical exports, and that shouldn't be moralized, as somehow implying an implicit personal support of Russia or the invasion.

EU soft power

Did the EU ever really have that much soft power over the East? The EU has barely any soft power in the EU itself.

I feel it's more of a US soft power collapse, also in the EU. The EU had a long-standing status quo of not really competing with the US militarily, now we're rearming.

It's Trump. It's the 2016-2020 Trump presidency that made the US demonstrate it's not a dependable ally.