Nate Silver predicts Trump has 64% chance of winning the electoral college in latest forecast

www.msn.com MSN

161 comments

Abolish the Electoral Collage.
- That ain’t gonna happen.
  That said, we can make it irrelevant with The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. It’s 77% the way there.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
  
  I love the concept of it, but the thing about the NPVIC is that it’s 0% of the way there until it’s 100% of the way there. So while 77% seems like we’re close, and there is legislation pending that could get us to 95%, the only reason it seems to be going forward steadily is that it does nothing unless you go all the way.
  The moment there is the prospect of legislation in a state that would get that last 5%, not only will that legislation be fought tooth and nail, but every state that has already entered the compact will have to fight like hell to keep it in place, not once but constantly forever. Because if you’re just over the threshold then almost any state backing out of the compact will nullify the whole thing again.
  It seems too fragile to be a workable solution. But I guess I don’t see anything wrong with trying!
  
  Very interesting, I had never heard of this.
- Or Electoral College even.
  I would like to see what an Electoral Collage looks like.
  
  You don't have one in your Democracy Scrapbook?
  
  It's what Trump tried to make with his fake idea.
  
  I thought that's what the Republicans were trying to make with all those weird gerrymandered districts.
- This is what we should've spent every waking moment doing since 2016. Why do we distract so easily...
  
  2000
- Singular prints only

Just a reminder to not be complacent.

Here's hoping Trump pulls a Biden tomorrow.
- Or a James Earl Jones. I'm not picky.
  
  Oh god, this is how I find out!!!!!
  
  Too soon.
  
  Sad about JEJ. But maybe a rule of 3s that takes out Trump wouldn't be the worst outcome.
  
  Too Soon! (I just read about JEJ)
- The problem was that Biden was actually trying to say something complicated and he got tripped up. Trump has always spoken at a kindergarten level because he knows he has nothing to say.
  
  Sure. He did get tripped up though, and he end Ed up looking like an idiot. That said, it was for the best. Harris is an infinitely better candidate.

Who is this guy and how serious should we take this information? This is by far the highest number I've seen for Trump so far.
- He's quite a well known pollster. Up until recently he was responsible for Five Thirty Eight, but it got sold and he left.
  He got the 2016 election wrong (71 Hilary, 28 trump) He got the 2020 election right (89 Biden, 10 Trump)
  Right and wrong are the incorrect terms here, but you get what I mean.
  
  He didn’t get it wrong. He said the Clinton Trump election was a tight horse race, and Trump had one side of a four sided die.
  The state by state data wasn’t far off.
  Problem is, people don’t understand statistics.
- He works for Peter Theil now, so I take everything he says with a huge grain of salt.
  
  Because of Polymarket? Not everything is a conspiracy.
- Polling guru Nate Silver and his election prediction model gave Donald Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the electoral college in an update to his latest election forecast on Sunday, after a NYT-Siena College poll found Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 percentage point.
  He's just a guy analizing the polls. The source is Fox News. He mentions in the article that tomorrow's debate could make that poll not matter.
  Should you trust Nate or polls? They're fun but... Who is answering these polls? Who wants to answer them before even October?
  So yeah take it seriously that a poll found that a lot of support for Trump exists. But it's just a moment of time for whoever they polled. Tomorrow's response will be a much better indication of any momentum.
  
  analizing
  
  It just seems strange because I don't think that many people are on the fence. Perhaps I'm crazy, but I feel most people know exactly who they're voting for already. Makes me wonder how valid this cross-section was that was used as the sample set. If it accurately represents the US, including undecided voters, then... 😮
  
  He's not polling, he is aggregating all of the polls into a prediction model. Either way it is just a snapshot in time.
  
  The key to doing statistics well is to make sure you aren't changing the results with any bias. This means enough samples, a good selection of samples, and weighing the outcome correctly. Even honest polling in pre-election is hard to get right, and because of that it's easy to make things lean towards results if you want to get certain results, or or getting paid to get those results.
  There's only one poll that matters, and that poll should include as large of a sample as possible, and be counted correctly. Even though some will try to prevent that from happening.
- It's a chance of winning, not a poll, so 64% is high but not insane. Silver is serious and it's a decent model. Knowing the model there's a pretty good chance this is a high point for Trump but it's not like he's pulling this out of nowhere, he has had similar models every election cycle since like 2008.
  If it's overstaying Trump it's because his model is interpreting the data incorrectly because of the weirdness of this election cycle. I personally think that is likely the case here.
- This quote sums it up:
  𝘾𝙝𝙖𝙨𝙚
  @chsrdn
  In the future we won't elect presidents. We'll have a primary, then Nate Silver will go into a spice trance and pick the winner.
  3:41 AM · 7 nov 2012
  
  That used to be true, but in recent years he has gotten a lot more conservative, so I personally take his predictions with a huge grain of salt.
- This isn't a poll. That's why the number is so high. His model is also automatically depressing Harris' numbers because of the convention right now. (It did the same thing to Trump after his convention)
  Nate has been upfront in his newsletters about the factor dropping off the model after today, but then it's also the debate. Things are likely to be far more clear going into the weekend because we'll have post debate polling being published and no more convention adjustments.
- You shouldn't take it seriously. The 24-hour news cycle depends on data like this. It just doesn't tell us anything.
- Their models have been really accurate for the last several election cycles. They’re part of fivethirtyeight.com
  
  No, Nate is not part of 538 anymore. He now works for a crypto betting website partly owned by Peter Thiel.
  I'll let you decide how neutral that makes him.
  
  Nate is not with 538 anymore. Disney didn’t renew his contract. However, he got to keep the model that he developed and publishes it for his newsletter subscribers. 538 had to rebuild their model from scratch this year with G Elliot Morris.
  Now Nate hosts the podcast Risky Business with Maria Konnikova. The psychologist who became a professional poker player while researching a book. It’s pretty good.
- Who is this guy and how serious should we take this information?
  Well, he did predict Clinton would win in 2016 so there's that.
- He's renowned for being wrong for several previous elections
  
  All prediction models only give you odds, not flawless accuracy. He has been closer in every election than most everyone else in the prediction market.
- Who is Nate Silver? Really?
  
  Hey man there is a mountain of people who don't know things and are scared to ask. learning is always a good thing

Ignore headlines
JUST VOTE

~~His older model at~~ 538 has things tighter with the coin toss slightly weighted toward Harris.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-harris-2024-election-map/
Whether it’s 55/45 or 65/35, we’re still basically talking about the same thing. This race is neck and neck, and whoever gets the turnout edge will win. We’re talking about fractions of percents that are at play, which is why these odd are a coin toss.
Edit: it looks like 538’s model is new, and Silver doesn’t like it or the guy behind it.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-dont-buy-538s-new-election
- Different model, same website. Silver got to keep his model and took it elsewhere after departing from 538.
  
  TIL. I thought they forked it. I didn’t realize 538’s was all new.
  
  Wait, he's not 538 now?

to be fair, nate silver is an idiot funded by peter thiel
- He's not an idiot. He is funded by Thiel. He has been politically captured by authoritarian capitalism, so I'd be wary of any models he produced that aren't independently audited for bias.
  I think polls are useful, and the monte carlo simulation approach for turning them into a electorial vote probability is good, but there "too much" magic sauce left over for me to trust the outputs from Silver or 538.
  
  I doubt even the usefulness of polls. Who answers polls anymore? We've been polled and surveyed to death. Nobody has time for it anymore.

I hate my country

Important to note, these forecasts are absolutely subject to change. This is not Nostradamus. It is merely reading the polls and factors as they stand. If Harris obliterates Trump tomorrow then this flips. If everyone donates enough money this week and the DNC gets more ground network for their get out the vote efforts, then this flips
All the model guys are very clear about this.
What's driving this current Trump run in the models is the lack of a convention bump for Harris. Models automatically tune a candidate's chances down by about 10 percent after their convention because it's usually a bit of a honeymoon period. It's been pointed out though that she may have had her honeymoon period after taking over from Biden. In which case the odds are more like 46/54.
The takeaway from this is that this election is incredibly close right now. Even at 36/64 it is very close. Both candidates need to run near perfect campaigns to have a chance of winning.
- What the fuck? How can this "race" even be close? How brain-dead emotional are the voters? There are two candidates, you choose the person who's ideals and directions you believe in? How is the election process surprisingly similar to an ADHD kindegarten with a nominated side whose campaign is metaphorical shit slinging??
  
  My parents believe whatever slop is thrown at them, so it doesnt surprise me.
  
  There are still people that distrust government as a general principle AND still believe the GOP is the party of "small government" so they will vote for whatever name is next to the R.
  
  There's a lot of Gen X and Millennials who were raised to automatically sit between the parties and ignore all the noise about each party being evil. To try and make an active decision, rather than just being a fan. From 1960 to 2000, that wasn't horrible advice for the average person. But now it's led them into considering Trump and Harris as equals because they've ignored all "the noise" about Trump.
  That's my opinion anyways. It's what I've encountered in many places.

Nate silver also predicted Hillary would win against Trump.
- He predicted she had 70% chance to win. He didn't predict her to win.
  
  So... About the same as this

I suspect Harris got her "convention bounce" (as defined by the model) right when she became the nominee, this made the model think she was overperforming pre-convention and now the bounce is fading "early" when the model thinks she should still have it so it seems like she's underperformed.
If this is the theory, knowing how close the swing states are and thus how swingy it can be, most likely this number goes back to maybe 55/45 Trump.
- Isn't he also shilling PolyMarket as well?
  
  He's a paid something or other for them, why?

But still no getting rid of the EC or passing RCV by incumbents.

Gaza is calling
- Gaza is calling for trump to be elected?
  Or what else did you mean?
  
  The misinformation team from Russia just wants to destroy us from the inside. Gaza is not going to be in the debate at all. Trump will certainly do whatever it is that makes him more followers or money. And I’m betting that letting Muslims die is pretty high on the MAGA wish list.
- This is going to sound bad but as much as I empathize with Palestine we have massive problems here too that need to be solved
  
  Harris's lack of action on Gaza is the reason she's sinking in the forecasts.
  She should help Gaza to help herself, if for no other reason.

161 comments