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Poll: Endorsing Israel Arms Embargo Would Boost Harris’s Support to 49 Percent

Commissioned by the Arab American Institute (AAI), the online poll of 2,505 American voters conducted between July 31 and August 1 found that 44% of U.S. voters would back Harris, 40% would support Republican nominee Donald Trump, and 11% would vote third party “if the election for president of the United States were held today.”

But if Harris were to endorse a suspension of U.S. arms shipments and diplomatic support for Israel “until there was a cease-fire and withdrawal of forces from Gaza,” her national support would grow from 44% to 49%.

A majority of Democratic voters say the Gaza crisis is either very or somewhat important in determining how they vote in November, according to the AAI poll.

The new survey, which has a margin of error of 2 percentage points, is consistent with an earlier poll commissioned by the Institute for Middle Eastern Understanding Policy Project, which found that Harris would bolster her chances in key battleground states if she backed an arms embargo.

56 comments

  • This hinges heavily on the theory that we've got a bunch of single issue Anti-Genocide voters. And I've lived through too many American sponsored genocides to believe it.

    However, three things poll really well in the United States

    • Cutting Spending on Foreign Aid (to literally anywhere)
    • Looking tough in front of foreign leaders
    • Getting the TV/Radio to stop talking about genocide

    I doubt she'd get a full 5% bump (unless she announces this the day before early voting starts), because there would inevitably be a bunch of spin and backlash, assuming media didn't just switch to New Thing and leave her position on Gaza in the rear view mirror. But it seems pretty clear that she'd get some noticeable benefit by siding with American voters on a broadly popular issue.

    Harris would bolster her chances in key battleground states if she backed an arms embargo.

    Lots of Muslim communities in these swing Midwestern states who are already marginally primed to vote for the Democrats. It definitely wouldn't hurt, given the Uncommitted Vote count in Michigan and Pennsylvania during the Dem primary were some of the highest in the country.

    She might even benefit in states like Texas and Arizona, given how many Iranian, Lebanese, and Turkish ex-pats live there. De-escalation in the Middle East would personally mean a lot to a co-worker of mine who still has family living in Tehran, for instance.

    But its also very possible that the risk of offending a NY/DC media that's heavily influenced by AIPAC is just too high. The Israeli Lobby is already biased towards the Republican Party and its Evangelical Anti-Muslim Base voters. Perhaps Harris is simply terrified of what a foreign government with a proven record of reshaping public opinion might do. If Russia can flip an election with a $46k Facebook ad buy, imagine what an irate AIPAC lobbyist could manage with tens of millions.

    • So AIPAC are a terror organization?

      They will cause extreme social unrest and conflict to advance their political agenda. Leaving people to fear their attack as the reason they are complicit to them.

      • So AIPAC are a terror organization?

        If we can call the Hamas health ministry a terrorist organization, then the lobbying wing of the Israeli military must surely qualify.

        They will cause extreme social unrest and conflict to advance their political agenda. Leaving people to fear their attack as the reason they are complicit to them.

        The problem with a propaganda machine is that it can fuck you right up the ass and leave you thanking it for its service.

    • They aren't "Anti-Genocide" voters, as evidenced by their complete silence on the actual genocides that are occurring in other parts of the world.

      Hint: They're Anti-Western/Anti-American, and they only give a shit about Palestinians because they are attacking the West.

      • their complete silence on the actual genocides

        Plugging your ears and ignoring people for twenty years does not mean they were silent.

  • She doesn't need to support an embargo. All she has to do is to say that the US is going to follow its own laws. As a former prosecutor, all she has to do is be the law and order candidate.

  • Gosh, I hope Genociding Bibi doesn't hear this. Imagine the hissy fit he'll throw!

    But then, upon further reflection, I'm ok with that.

    Mmmmm that 5% difference is so yummy.

    I'll dream about it if I have to.

  • Is this nationally or do they break down to state level? Because it's unfortunately somewhat meaningless beyond the likes of Pennsylvania.

    Edit: Just national.

    • There are a number of large Muslim communities across the Midwest. I doubt it would move the needle in Indiana or North Carolina, but there was a sizable Uncommitted Vote in Michigan specifically focused on the Palestinian Genocide. That's a swing state Harris desperately needs. Juicing turnout in Deerborn could easily be what closes the deal in November.

    • The second poll, linked in the last quoted paragraph, has info on the swing states

      A significant share of Democrats and independent voters in pivotal swing states Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona are more likely to vote for the Democratic presidential nominee (presumptively Kamala Harris) if said nominee pledges support for an arms embargo to Israel, and if President Joe Biden secures a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. The findings come in new polling commissioned by the Institute for Middle Eastern Understanding Policy Project and conducted by polling firm YouGov.

      In Pennsylvania, 34% of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee if the nominee vowed to withhold weapons to Israel, compared to 7% who said they would be less likely. The rest said it would make no difference. In Arizona, 35% said they’d be more likely, while 5% would be less likely. And in Georgia, 39% said they’d be more likely, also compared to 5% who would be less likely.

      Overall, Democrats and independents in all three states examined in the exhibited YouGov/IMEU poll have strong support for a permanent ceasefire and disapproval of unconditional aid to Israel. At least 80% of respondents in each state supported a ceasefire, while more than 60% disapproved of unconditional military aid to Israel. Roughly a quarter of respondents in all states said the violence in Gaza — and candidates’ positions on it — is important to them and will likely sway how they vote.

      • Thank you for highlighting that. I need to read closely because that's a big deal. If margins are truly that wide I can't imagine Harris campaign isn't testing these further with internal polling. I wonder how that coincides with whether a permanent ceasefire is achieved. I kind of get the impression Harris is toeing the line until all hope is lost for that (which now seems all hope is?)

56 comments