Bulletins and News Discussion from September 30th to October 6th, 2024 - Qassam, Qassem, Quagmire
Bulletins and News Discussion from September 30th to October 6th, 2024 - Qassam, Qassem, Quagmire
Image is of the aftermath of an Israeli bombing of Beirut in 2006.
We are now almost one year into the war and genocide in Gaza. Despite profound hardship, the Gazan Resistance continues its battles against the enemy, entirely undeterred. Despite Israeli proclamations throughout 2024 that they have cleared out Hamas from various places throughout Gaza, we still see regular attacks and ambushes against Zionist forces. Just today (Monday), Al Qassam fighters ambushed and destroyed another convoy of Israeli vehicles. The predictions early on in the war were that Israel would defeat Hamas in mere months, needing only until December, then January, and so on. This has proven very much untrue. Israel is stuck in the mud; unable to destroy their enemy due to their lack of knowledge about the "Gaza Metro" and, of course, a lack of actual fighting skill, given how many times I've seen Zionists getting shot while they gaze wistfully out of windows.
The same quagmire will occur in Lebanon, only considerably worse. Both Nasrallah and Sinwar possess a similar strategy of luring Zionist forces onto known, friendly territory, replete with traps and ambushes, to bleed them dry of equipment, manpower, and the will to continue fighting. The scale of the invasion could fall anywhere on the spectrum from "very limited" - more of a series of raids on Hezbollah positions than truly trying to occupy land - to a total invasion which would seek to permanently take control of Southern Lebanon. Neither is likely to destroy, or even substantially diminish Hezbollah's fighting abilities. This is not wishful thinking: Hezbollah has convincingly defeated Israel twice before in its history, pushing them from their territory, and both times Hezbollah had almost no missiles and a limited supply of other equipment, relying on improvisation as often as not. The Hezbollah of 2024 is an entirely different organization to that of the early 2000s.
Attempts to drive wedges between Hezbollah and the rest of Lebanon are also unlikely to succeed. Hezbollah is not just a military force, it is extremely interlinked into various communities throughout Lebanon, drawing upon those communities to recruit soldiers. Throughout its history, it has provided education, healthcare, reconstruction, and dozens of other services one would attribute to a state. Amal Saad's recent suggestion of using "quasi-state actor" as a more respectful replacement for the typical "non-state actor" seems advisable. And the decentralized command structures, compartmented leadership, strong succession planning, and aforementioned community ties almost entirely neutralizes the effectiveness of assassinations. Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem has confirmed that Hezbollah's path has been set by Nasrallah, and his martyrdom will not stop nor even pause their efforts. Additionally, he confirmed that despite the recent attacks by Israel which nominally focussed on destroying missile depots, Hezbollah's supply of weapons has not been degraded, and they are still only using the minimum of their capabilities.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
You're viewing a single thread.
Reports coming out showing hundreds of civilians in liberated Ugledar. This city has been under constant siege and attack for over 2 years and basically looks like a pile of rubble from the air. Why the fuck did Ukraine not forcibly evacuate the population in the 2 years of fighting? Like what the fuck
There were people living there? What in the ever loving fuck?CW: Chuddery
Was quite shocking to me too since Russia has been liberally using 1500 KG glide bombs and just recently used a ODAB-9000 vacuum bomb on the city center, one of the largest conventional explosives known to man.
No idea how these people are even alive. Hidden in basements on the outskirts surely.
Permanently Deleted
Google is not doing justice, can you link some images?
Edit: I keep getting pictures of bakhmut, avdiika, and kherson
https://xcancel.com/clashreport/status/1841405062800707823
https://xcancel.com/Rhein43203379/status/1841405915829817403#m
Another angle. Some say this is FAB1500, not FAB9000. Makes sense, this is on the front I think they would use glides but not dropped bombs. Surely FAB9000 with glide kit wouldn't make it very far, it's so heavy.
As far as we know there's no UMPK kit for the 9000kg bombs.
Even if there were one, dropping such a load would require a TU-95 bomber which isn't used in this conflict. Every glide bomb so far has been dropped by fighter aircraft whose weapon pylons support up to a maximum weight of 3000kg per pylon, dependent on the jet and particular hardpoint.
Besides, dropping several smaller warheads is in general more effective than one single massive one.
Edit: in case you want to see the preparation & deployment of the largest explosives (FAB-3000) currently used by Russia in Ukraine: https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1e2wb9y/ru_pov_fab3000_installation_and_delivery/
A Reddit link was detected in your comment. Here are links to the same location on alternative frontends that protect your privacy.
What the actual fuck was that bomb.
Fucking hell the only thing that looks worse than that is Gaza.
Difference is this city has 114 people in it, meanwhile Gaza has 2 million people trapped with nowhere to go
I didn't mean to take away from Gaza, I just didn't expect ugledar to look that battered.
How in the hell were people living in Ugledar? It looks like a post apocalyptic city after a nuclear detonation. Were they locked in the basements by Ukrainian soliders and prevented from leaving? Did they voluntarily stay and wait for Russia to take over? How did they survive years of fortifications and bombings?
moving children out of a war zone is a classic RuZZian war crime and, uh, ethnic cleansing?seems from the footage it was mostly ancient pensioners, like most seemed 70+