Prediction time: Harris will win the popular and electoral vote.
Doesn't matter who the VP pick is, the big wet boi is cooked.
Trump's followers will do some terrorism like they usually do, but the majority of them will become disenfranchised and go the way of the tea party - still present, still a pain in the ass, but ineffectual. They will devote their time to Trump's new talk show and he will sell them Trump hairy balls strong man supplements and other scams.
American empire will continue to expand, nothing will fundamentally change. Blue MAGA is the new order.
VP pick does matter in at least one instance: Josh Shapiro could tank her chances in Michigan, and most of her pathways to victory run through Michigan. Other than that, I'd agree that her VP matters very little
Michigan has a significant population of Arab Americans who are not fans of US support for genocide in Gaza. Josh Shapiro has been very pro-Israel and hostile to anti-Zionist protests, so adding him to the ticket would not play with those voters, who may stay home or even vote for Trump out of spite.