Asking the same question as the last time this article was posted:
Can anyone explain to me what the consequence for fare jumping is if they don’t do this enforcement? Can an economist explain what the expected value lost from additional jumping is without enforcement?
When I lived in NYC, I began getting monthly passes through work. I did this for 3 years, paying $100/mo or $1,200 a year. I was getting paid pennies to make a big company bigger, so I stopped paying and started jumping. I jumped for around 2 years on my commute and for any other transit. I had a pay per ride card if I was on a date or if I needed the bus transfer. I figured out which cars to hide in to avoid paying for LIRR or the Metro North tickets (hint: at rush hour, no one can walk through the cars).
I was caught one time, I jumped the turnstiles into the 6 train at 68th/Hunter College. Right in front of 3 cops looking for jumpers (of course they were trying to ticket poor college kids). Got a ticket for $85. Still less than my monthly card would have cost. I was gonna argue it with some lame ass excuse but ended up paying it just so I wouldn’t have to take a day off work. I still saved over $2300 by jumping.
So, not to say that this program is effective, but how many people were in a similar circumstance as me but decided not to jump because of deterrence policing?
Can anyone explain to me what the consequence for fare jumping is if they don’t do this enforcement? Can an economist explain what the expected value lost from additional jumping is without enforcement?
There is net societal gain from effectively reducing the price of transit, therefore encouraging its use, therefore reducing traffic congestion.
The transit agency's books might not look quite as good because of lower fare revenue, but that's okay because (a) as I explained above, the positive externalities outweigh the "losses," and (b) government agencies aren't supposed to make a profit anyway.
In theory I agree with you, but in practice free transit might actually deter use of public transit by those who could afford to drive. Los Angeles has done a good job building new public transit but since the pandemic and the elimination of fares, conditions on the trains, particularly the subways, have deteriorated significantly. Violent crime (assault, murder, rape) has jumped, often involving homeless.
The problem there isn't free transit, though; the problem there is failing to house the homeless. Although I realize there are people (like you) who bring it up in good faith, I can't help but think that the people who came up with the idea that charging for transit is good because it keeps homeless off the trains aren't actually interested in improving either transit or homelessness.
Also, not having to enforce fare evasion frees up transit police to deter violent crime.
I can’t help but think that the people who came up with the idea that charging for transit is good because it keeps homeless off the trains aren’t actually interested in improving either transit or homelessness.
Congratulations your Mk II I-Don’t-Think-You-Assholes-Actually-Care Fire and Forget Torpedo scored a direct hit on your opponents Battleship HMS Austerity hitting the engine room and immediately (rhetorically) obliterating five whole subreddits of libertarians.