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The US can grow water intensive crops in the middle of the driest and hottest desert on earth. It has access to incredible amounts of fresh water, far more land than its population needs to be supported, and the most advanced agricultural technology.
Just saying "environmental collapse" doesn't predict anything about the US's ability to grow food and what you're suggesting would need to be like a 50-75% drop in production. A mistake being made by some people in this thread is the idea that everything in the US is broken. But the US can economically dominant the world for a reason: it is a gargantuan economic and industrial powerhouse with a huge variety and quantity of natural resources and a massive population. None of that is going away. Hegemony will fade because it's a political disaster and China has all those same advantages with far better management, but the US isn't going to disappear any time soon.
If it were just as simple as growing food in a desert it would be fine, but the circumstances that allow us to do that are fragile and will be impacted by a lot of shit failing, not just one or two things that can be fixed by technology. The US can grow things in the desert now because it has the rest of the country's fertile resources to do so. It doesn't matter what technology the US has. It isn't just a matter of replacing bees with drones or installing irrigation. The soil will be dead. The water will become anaerobic. The types of plants we can grow will dwindle, and resulting monoculture will cause even more problems. It will be insanely expensive to do. Keep in mind that this is a country that relies on capitalism to survive, the only reason it can keep going is because there are resources that are easy to exploit. What's going to happen to businesses that can't get their cheap corn syrup anymore? While this is going on people will be starving, and more pandemics will be occurring, meaning the workforce needed to power this huge endeavor will be strained to its breaking point.
I think that the climate crisis has been so diluted by the media that people don't realize just how bad an ecological collapse is. I haven't even listed all the details because there would be too much for me to go through and I suck and writing. Either way, look at the Permian great dying and ask yourself if we can survive that as a species, let alone a country.
The way the US handled COVID-19 should give you an idea of how unprepared they are.
This is just unrestrained doomerism that doesn't really reflect what climate change will look like.
The US can grow things in the desert now because it has the rest of the country's fertile resources to do so.
That won't change. Do you think the Great Lakes will dry up?
It isn't just a matter of replacing bees with drones
It's wild bees that are at risk, not agricultural ones.
or installing irrigation.
That's kind of all it is.
The soil will be dead.
What does this even mean? It will be lower biodiversity but worms aren't going anywhere.
The water will become anaerobic.
Ocean oxygen levels dropping is bad but the water won't be anaerobic and also what does this have to do with farming?
What's going to happen to businesses that can't get their cheap corn syrup anymore?
You need to specifically demonstrate that they won't. The US gov will clearly do anything it can to keep the garbage flowing and corn grows in a broad range of climates. The Midwest isn't going to become a desert.
Either way, look at the Permian great dying and ask yourself if we can survive that as a species, let alone a country.
I think that humanity could quite obviously survive the great dying. Do you not think humans are in the top 30% of adaptable species on earth? We live in a broader range of climates than any other vertebrate and we aren't going to suddenly lose that capacity. Framing climate change as leading to human extinction is a preposterous overstatement. Is it not bad enough that billions of people will be displaced? That wars will be fought for water rights and productive land? That destructive storms and flooding will double or triple in frequency and severity? None of that comes even close to extinction conditions, but it could still be the worst period in human history.
I haven't even listed all the details because there would be too much for me to go through and I suck and writing.
You haven't listed any details because you aren't relying on a scientific understanding of the situation.
You can't just scream "ecological collapse" and then go on to discuss the worst possible things you can imagine without any actual evidence. We're looking at a 2-3 degree increase in global temperatures. That won't shut down the biosphere even if every bit of permanent ice melts; the Cretaceous was 10+ hotter and for most of the history of multicellular life there hasn't been permanent ice anywhere on the planet.
I don't know how anyone can take a human extinction panicker seriously. Will the entire planet become less hospitable than the Sahara desert? That's what would be required, and if you think that's the case, your understanding of what the dangers of climate change actually are is based on a cartoon.
The way the US handled COVID-19 should give you an idea of how unprepared they are.
The US let a million of its people die but nothing touched agricultural production because that's the shit the US is prepared to keep functional at all costs.
My brother in Christ, I study this stuff for a living. It will definitely be that bad and claiming it isn't is climate denialism.
That won't change. Do you think the Great Lakes will dry up?
They don't have to, the water chemistry will fuck up as the life that can't cope with the temperature change dies off. This will cause the lake ecology to crash the water will be stagnant and need constant treatment, among other things.
It's wild bees that are at risk, not agricultural ones.
Oh that's okay then, a huge chunk of the native ecosystem dying never leads to an unstable environment.
Not only that but this simply isn't true. Honey bees are currently very weak as a species from pesticides, diseases, and malnutrition caused from monoculture farming.
What does this even mean? It will be lower biodiversity but worms aren't going anywhere.
Dude, if you don't know anything about soil health why are you speaking so confidently about it? You know, the nitrogen cycle? The biome of the soil? All the stuff plants require to survive etc?
And yes, the biodiversity of worms is going somewhere. Again, do you know anything about the subject you're lecturing me about yourself?
Ocean oxygen levels dropping is bad but the water won't be anaerobic and also what does this have to do with farming
Yes, it will that's literally what it means. And what do you mean what does clean water with a stable PH have to do with farming?!
I think that humanity could quite obviously survive the great dying. Do you not think humans are in the top 30% of adaptable species on earth?
We could quite obviously survive the worst extnction event in Earths history? The one that almost wiped out all life? The one that took the ecosystem millions of years to recover from? That great dying?
Also, we have only been here for a blink of an eye as far as the lifetime of the planet goes, and we are adaptable to this environment, not a dead planet. There are plenty of adaptable animals that were once numerous that don't exist anymore.
You haven't listed any details because you aren't relying on a scientific understanding of the situation.
I haven't been saying anything that conflicts with the our current scientific consensus as far as what I've been taught by ecologists.
You can't just scream "ecological collapse" and then go on to discuss the worst possible things you can imagine without any actual evidence.
Your lack of understanding isn't a lack of evidence. You are welcome to read some journals and fact-check me if you want.
We're looking at a 2-3 degree increase in global temperatures. That won't shut down the biosphere even if every bit of permanent ice melts; the Cretaceous was 10+ hotter and for most of the history of multicellular life there hasn't been permanent ice anywhere on the planet.
Hey, yeah, cool. The Cretaceous. Remind me how many humans were around then.
Oh yeah, nothing bad happened when the environment of the Cretaceous changed. Not like a ton of shit went extinct or anything.
Also, it's projected to be a 4-5°C increase. Which again, would make it on the scale of the great dying.
So yeah even if we survive as a species, we'll wish we were dead.
The US let a million of its people die but nothing touched agricultural production because that's the shit the US is prepared to keep functional at all costs.
The US can't even build a shuttle that doesn't leak piss, no matter how much money they throw at it. I don't trust them to do dick.
When things collapse they collapse slowly, then all at once. The major problem for the U.S. hegemonically is that almost all of our manufacturing input (including the MIC) comes from Chinese manufacturing. If that is disrupted we will immediately come into a late-Soviet economic crisis of 'lots of money with nothing to buy'. Almost all of our bolts, nuts, and industrial hardware comes from China, and there are no stockpiles of this stuff as it is all supply-chain managed to be immediate input-output to reduce costs. Good luck keeping your machines running if you don't have the hardware to keep up the maintenance.
If we don't fuck up our relationship with China, this whole thing can go on for decades before eventual ecological collapse, but if the blob actually decides to commit to an active conflict with China our goose will be cooked incredibly quickly, within a decade, because we do not have the labor inputs to replace that Chinese manufacturing power, and it is because there are zero engineers in the upper echelons of the corporate or political spheres (because we specifically enculturate them to be apolitically ambient right-wing) that this is even approaching a real possibility.
The major problem for the U.S. hegemonically is that almost all of our manufacturing input (including the MIC) comes from Chinese manufacturing... Almost all of our bolts, nuts, and industrial hardware comes from China.
I'm discussing this in a parallel chain right now, but this is overstating things a lot. The US makes a lot of industrial equipment domestically, from nuts and bolts to advanced engines. I tour these metal doohickey plants all the time - places pumping out everything from doorknobs and hammers to jet engine casings and extremely high precision valve systems. I live in a city that's thought of as a former industrial powerhouse, but the reality is it's still one of the premier manufacturing cities in the country - there's just far fewer workers involved. Much more light industry than heavy industry has been outsourced. It's especially overstated for MIC, which does almost all of its manufacturing, top to bottom, domestically. That's part of the reason for its political invulnerability - there's fifty factories pumping out parts for aircraft carriers and bombers in your district, Congressman.
Now, the US absolutely is dependent on China's manufacturing, and that need is most severe in some specific industries and supply chains. If that were cut off today, it would be a disaster economically, but not in our ability to build machines. It would be in our ability to provide clothes, toys, entertainment products, computers, etc - consumer goods. We'd keep pumping out fighter jets and cars and drilling equipment no problem (except for advanced smartboards! oops!). Under smart management (not happening) the US would be mandating onshoring light industry through enormous state investment.
In the industry I work in, which caters to heavy machinery, almost all of our peripheral shit comes from China, they had to scramble when COVID hit to get parts in and were panicking because they lost a significant (5%) of market share due to these shortages, there was no slack that could have been picked up by domestic input. The only reason they didn't lose more was because the competition fumbled the bag even harder than we did and we managed to buy out parts of their systems to compensate as they went under, but now it's pretty much a monopoly market.
I'm not saying it's not possible, I'm saying that that expanding capacity is a long-term project that I am not even sure is possible if the U.S. isn't willing to invest heavily into the education to do so (which it is not because financial, tech, entertainment and cultural production are easier and more profitable). The U.S. is an industrial powerhouse, but so much of that production relies on those cheap peripherals from China, not even cheap consumer goods, but things like lens, masks, suits, clothes, wrenches, etc. The heavy industry will not survive, and will rapidly monopolize (more than it already has) without those inputs.
However I agree that the real collapse won't happen until something occurs with the MIC or the 10-11 equity firms that finance pretty much everything in the U.S. This thing is built to last, and grind up everything and everyone around it before it is stopped.
In the industry I work in, which caters to heavy machinery, almost all of our peripheral shit comes from China, they had to scramble when COVID hit to get parts in and were panicking because they lost a significant (5%) of market share due to these shortages, there was no slack that could have been picked up by domestic input. The only reason they didn't lose more was because the competition fumbled the bag even harder than we did and we managed to buy out parts of their systems to compensate as they went under, but now it's pretty much a monopoly market.
What industry? I'm curious which ones have that supply chain and which don't. My city is a major aerospace manufacturing center and almost all levels of production besides final assembly and computer parts happen here.
I'm not saying it's not possible, I'm saying that that expanding capacity is a long-term project that I am not even sure is possible if the U.S. isn't willing to invest heavily into the education to do so (which it is not because financial, tech, entertainment and cultural production are easier and more profitable). The U.S. is an industrial powerhouse, but so much of that production relies on those cheap peripherals from China, not even cheap consumer goods, but things like lens, masks, suits, clothes, wrenches, etc. The heavy industry will not survive, and will rapidly monopolize (more than it already has) without those inputs.
It's a good point that peripheral stuff that isn't really thought of as in the supply chain is totally dependent on China. Safety gear is a great example. And yeah, like I said, the US isn't going to get the smart governance to reindustrialize much more of its supply chain even though the capacity exists to do so fairly quickly.
I make no predictions about internal collapse of the US, I just take satisfaction in the empire's ongoing crumbling.
I work in the automotive industry, though not on tractors, trucks or cars themselves, in general on the necessary (but not essential) accessory components to them. It wouldn't surprise me if the mainline auto and aerospace industries are mostly domestically sourced at this point, but the main life-blood of manufacturing outside of those large cities runs off of those peripheral inputs from China (because they can't compete with the large domestic needs of those mainline industries). While places like Detroit, Cleveland, Seattle, Buffalo, Minneapolis, Milwaukee and other industrial hubs would probably be fine in the event of a major war with China, all the mid-size cities (less than 100,000) would see what is left of their industry completely decimated and their labor eaten by the big cities, which would only exacerbate the problems that those cities have, as people who generally chose not to migrate to large cities are suddenly forced to compete in those labor markets in order to retain a job in their field. It may not seem like a big deal, but imagine if every single midsize city suddenly lost the monetary input of their top 15-10% earners. It would be completely devastating to the local economy on all levels. If an unprecedented collapse happens, it will occur in these less managed parts of the country, and those consequences will radiate out towards the population centers at an escalating rate that the statisticians can't predict because there hasn't been enough data collected to manage properly.
That said, it really depends on if Washington is actually serious about fucking with China, or are just playing it up for domestic politics points or trying to scare businesses into lessening their supply chain commitment to China so that they can eventually commit to a conflict. People are definitely hearing the warning signs around here, but there is no real way to de-couple from them, as there are very few domestic inputs that are as cost-effective or well-established as the Chinese ones at this point in time. Every year, the supply chain guys try to figure out a solution, but it is trying to square a circle, as any supply we don't pick up is supply that the competition can pick up and potentially contest for market share. The very logic of capitalist expansion and development prevents them from orienting themselves in a way that protects them from actions of the State Department. All I can say is that the next couple decades will continue to be interesting, whether or not anything actually significant occurs.
Edit: I need to practice being more specific. When I say 'heavy industry won't survive' what I mean is 'the product diversification of heavy industry won't survive'. Basically, we will see a completely unrecognizable market landscape the consequences of we can scarcely imagine.
Good analysis, I appreciate it
No problem, it is always interesting to hear what is going on in the actual core of the imperial core and not what is fraying around the periphery of the mid-country.
When things collapse they collapse slowly, then all at once.
treadonme gets it
Another thing we don’t really produce or stockpile is the necessary components for our electrical grid. In the last few years there have been several weather events that if they had gone very slightly differently would’ve meant large parts of the country without electricity for months.
Is America an industrial powerhouse? The impression I get is that America has deindustrialized and outsourced everything and is now heavily dependent on international supply chains.
Only China has a larger industrial capacity than the US. The difference varies year by year, but on average the US is making somewhere around 2/3 to 3/4 of what China does in dollar value. The US is not the global heart of industry that it once was, but it still produces huge amounts of raw materials, processed materials, and advanced technology. Same sort of ratio holds for all net exports, where the US is only second to China (but they are exporting very different stuff).
Good breakdown of what the US is producing, exporting, and importing: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa/
We as Marxists should not delude ourselves into thinking the US has nothing happening economically. Most people are just excluded from it.
Thanks for the link!
*interesting stuff:
The top exports of United States are Refined Petroleum ($83.3B), Petroleum Gas ($70.9B), Crude Petroleum ($67.6B), Cars ($55.4B), and Integrated Circuits ($51.3B), exporting mostly to Canada ($259B), Mexico ($247B), China ($151B), Japan ($71.8B), and South Korea ($66.4B). In 2021, United States was the world's biggest exporter of Refined Petroleum ($83.3B), Petroleum Gas ($70.9B), Medical Instruments ($30.2B), Gas Turbines ($30B), and Corn ($18.8B)
The top imports of United States are Cars ($139B), Crude Petroleum ($120B), Computers ($102B), Broadcasting Equipment ($101B), and Packaged Medicaments ($86.3B), importing mostly from China ($530B), Mexico ($361B), Canada ($355B), Germany ($135B), and Japan ($128B). In 2021, United States was the world's biggest importer of Cars ($139B), Computers ($102B), Broadcasting Equipment ($101B), Packaged Medicaments ($86.3B), and Motor vehicles; parts and accessories (8701 to 8705) ($77.7B)
It's interesting how much overlap there is in top exports and imports.
Your comment wounds like a history channel documentary from the 90s
Not saying u r right or wrong. Just like, you gave me nostalgia. Thanks man!