The majority of Americans who voted, at least in the swing states, have voted for the republicans. Why? Do the republican policies reflect popular opinion? Or is it that their vibes are more aligned with the public? Or maybe people are worse off now than they were 4 years ago and are hoping to turn back time? As a non-american I don't quite get it. People must think their lives will materially improve under the republicans, but why?
The simple conclusion is that the singularly most important thing a politician can do is excite and move their base. For how awful/low energy his campaign was this year, trump still excites and moves a base, while kamala was confused about what base to cater to- first calling Republicans weird then copying their platform and getting the dick Cheney approval.
This all could have been avoided if the Dems actually had a primary this year, but I think the DNC is actually afraid of progressives taking the party back over
Yes, but no. More years for context (count in millions)
2016: 66 Hillary v 63 Trump
2012: 66 Obama v 61 Romney
2008: 69 Obama v 60 McCain
2020 was a rarity in terms of turnout, 4 years of trump motivated a lot of angry Dems, but 4 years of Nothing will fundamentally change doesn't really excite the base. Add on top of that the Dems last second changed their nominee to a person who dropped out of the 2020 primary because she did not have a base.. If I remember right, it was so bad even mayo Pete had a higher percentage of the black vote.
That's what I remember. Kamala didn't have supporters, like at all. It was Neera Tanden and a few hundred absolutely bizarre people in the Twitter KHive.
I knew the turnout this time was going to be dogshit. Turnout is strongly correlated with a dem victory, but they only get turnout when they run someone who projects a break from the norm.
Non-voters are converted into voters when there is uncertainty, but I think that also cuts both ways, if the electorate feels that nothing will change based on the options, voters get converted into non-voters.