5mo ago

Jimmy Kimmel has a suggestion.

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Because I talk to Republicans, like with my mouth and listen with my ears. I see the roadside Trump support. I see people hanging banners on freeway overpasses. I'm just being realistic because I don't think conservative voters really care about what the Republican Elites are doing if those people aren't MAGA morons.
- That is completely anecdotal.
  
  That is a weak perspective.
  Let me share something with you https://wikipedia.org/wiki/All_politics_is_local
  
  Let me share something with you in return: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/writing-integrity/202011/the-plural-anecdote-is-misinformation
  
  Did you even read that? What part aside from the use of your keywords do you want me to take from this?
  
  All of it.
  This part, for example
  It is perfectly understandable why many people fall victim to the luring illusory strength of anecdotal evidence. It is easy to confuse correlation with causation. Illusions of causality and control are very powerful personal experiences that can trick many into believing a false reality. Illusions of causality also lie at the heart of pseudoscience.
  You are falling victim to that very thing.
  
  You clearly don't understand what you're trying to say. It's a problem with this style of communication. Your putting to much value on your idea of what anecdotal evidence is. I'm not making presumptions about anything beyond my personal experiences. There's no facts I can use outside of voting records and the words people use and the actions they take. You can call it antidotal evidence but that's a poor direction because it's like everything is anecdotal if someone wants to be argumentive. Everything is anecdotal at some point https://listen-hard.com/psychological-research-and-methodology/anecdotal-evidence-psychology/
  I live in a conservative part of Washington, surrounded by even more conservative communities on the other side of the state boarder with Idaho. My city is an island of moderate voting but leaning right. It's not very hard to get a sense of what the local politics are.
  Do you know what that is like?
  Let me give you an example. https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Shea
  Matt Shea was a local government official. He's made world news doing questionable shit. He's made a religious manifesto. He is a local conservative leader where I live. He was on stage with the previous mayor of Spokane. The election results are clearly factual. That mayor didn't lose in a landslide. Matt Shea was rejected by the Republican Elites but I think his endorsement of Trump has a stronger appeal to the Republicans in Eastern Washington than Dick Cheney.
  Shea acknowledged that he had distributed a four-page manifesto which called for the killing of non-Christian males if a war were to occur and they do not agree to follow fundamentalist biblical law
  This is reality.
  It's hard to NOT see all the parts and make a conclusion that local conservative voters don't care what the National Republican Party thinks.
  Psychology isn't a good science especially if you're trying to apply it to politics.
  
  I live in a conservative part of Washington, surrounded by even more conservative communities on the other side of the state boarder with Idaho. My city is an island of moderate voting but leaning right. It’s not very hard to get a sense of what the local politics are.
  Do you know what that is like?
  I live in Indiana. I also don't see all the Trump signs I saw in 2020. It's not even close.
  Does my anecdotal evidence trump yours?
  
  That you even said
  Does my anecdotal evidence trump yours?
  Shows how little you understand the concept.
  
  So apparently the answer is no. My experience in rural Indiana does not matter because of your experience in rural Washington.

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