Research shows more than 80% of AI projects fail, wasting billions of dollars in capital and resources: Report
The AI industry is fraught with failure.
I’m an AI Engineer, been doing this for a long time. I’ve seen plenty of projects that stagnate, wither and get abandoned. I agree with the top 5 in this article, but I might change the priority sequence.
4 & 2 —>1. IF they even have enough data to train an effective model, most organizations have no clue how to handle the sheer variety, volume, velocity, and veracity of the big data that AI needs. It’s a specialized engineering discipline to handle that (data engineer). Let alone how to deploy and manage the infra that models need—also a specialized discipline has emerged to handle that aspect (ML engineer). Often they sit at the same desk.
1 & 5 —> 2: stakeholders seem to want AI to be a boil-the-ocean solution. They want it to do everything and be awesome at it. What they often don’t realize is that AI can be a really awesome specialist tool, that really sucks on testing scenarios that it hasn’t been trained on. Transfer learning is a thing but that requires fine tuning and additional training. Huge models like LLMs are starting to bridge this somewhat, but at the expense of the really sharp specialization. So without a really clear understanding of what can be done with AI really well, and perhaps more importantly, what problems are a poor fit for AI solutions, of course they’ll be destined to fail.
3 —> 3: This isn’t a problem with just AI. It’s all shiny new tech. Standard Gardner hype cycle stuff. Remember how they were saying we’d have crypto-refrigerators back in 2016?
Not to derail, but may I ask how did you become an AI Engineer? I'm a software dev by trade, but it feels like a hard field to get into even if I start training for the AI part of it, because I'd need the data to practice =(
But it's such a big buzz word I feel like I need to start looking that direction if i want to stay employed.
if I want to stay employed
I think this is a little paranoid. Somebody has to handle the production models - deploying them to servers, maintaining the servers, developing the APIs and front ends that provide access to the models… I don’t think software dev jobs are going anywhere
For me it helps to have a project. I learned SciKit in order to analyze trading data to beat the "market". I was focusing on crypto but there's lots of trading data available in general. Unsurprisingly I didn't make any money, but it was fun to learn more about data processing, statistics, and modeling with functions.
(FWIW I'm crypto-neutral depending on the topic and anti-"AI" because it doesn't exist.)
Kaggle has some good free datasets to practice
Re 1, 3 and 5, maybe it is upon the AI projects to stop providing shiny solutions looking for a problem they could solve, and properly engaging with potential customers and stakeholders to get a clear understanding of the problems that need solving.
This was precisely the context of a conversation I had at work yesterday. Some of our product managers attended a conference that was rife with AI stuff, and a customer rep actually took to the stage and said 'I have no need for any of that because none of it helps me solve the problems I need to solve.'
I don’t disagree. Solutions finding problems is not the optimal path—but it is a path that pushes the envelope of tech forward, and a lot of these shiny techs do eventually find homes and good problems to solve and become part of a quiver.
But I will always advocate to start with the customer and work backwards from there to arrive at the simplest engineered solution. Sometimes that’s a ML model. Sometimes a ln expert system. Sometimes a simpler heuristics/rules based system. That all falls under the ‘AI’ umbrella, by the way. :D
Also in the industry and I gotta say it’s not often I agree with every damn point. You nailed it. Thanks for posting!
I think the whole system of venture capital might be garbage. We have bros spending millions of dollars like gif sharing while the oceans boil, our schools rot, and our infrastructure rusts or is sold off. Or, I guess I'm just indicting capitalism more generally. But having a few bros decide what to fund based on gutfeel and powerpoints seems like a particularly malignant form.
You think it might be??
Bro say that shit with some confidence.
Venture capital does not contribute beneficially to society.
Say it with your whole chest and both feet. Cuz it's true.
Venture Capital is probably the best way to drain the billionaires. Those billions in capital weren't wasted, that money just went to pay people who do actual work for a living. What good is all that money doing just sitting in some hedge fund account?
I don't think it's the best way out of all possible options. Even if it does "create jobs", a lot of those jobs aren't producing much of wider value, and most of the wealth stays in the hands of the ownership class. And a lot of the jobs are exploitive, like how "gig workers" are often treated.
Changes to tax law and enforcing anti-trust stuff would probably be more effective. We probably shouldn't have bogus high finance shenanigans either. We definitely shouldn't have billionaires.
I think you have a point here. Venture capitalists buy in the primary market. They are directly impacting innovation.
Fund managers (both hedge and long only) merely help capital markets to be liquid. Their money doesn't directly go to anyone actually creating something.
The situation where it's still profitable to invest this way means that there's some cross-flow of value from real to this which shouldn't exist.
I dunno which. Maybe government handouts to corps, for example.
Or ads revenue from any engaging activity, not only good, made huge because of oligopolies.
Or closing holes with currency emission.
It shouldn't be possible otherwise.
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Your average tech hype cycle. New tech comes out, lots of marketing, people try to shove it everywhere, then things settle down and the tech either fills a certain chunk of the market or some niche or it dies.
NFT, Blockchain, dot Com boom, there's always another one
Not with all new tech, just something that shakes normies' imagination.
Even within a company. Saw coworkers that were trying to establish themselves as the AI pioneers and were backstabbing others get promotions based on how they could best use the ChatGPT AI.
Backstabbing your fellow coworkers over a chatbot has got to be one of the most pathetic things I've read recently
Capitalism wastes money chasing new shiny tech thing
Yeah, we know. AI's not special.
It might be in the volume and price of projects
80% of AI projects so far...
When did brute force switch from being an antipattern to the preferred pattern?
Any function is computable with a big enough table.
When normies angry at feeling stupid came into equation.
All those (stubbornly) computer-illiterate people - have you tried really irritating them? What they'll say at those moments is valuable.
They will say that computing can't be that complex. That reports on company's activity for a year are complex, that hydroelectric stations are complex, that car engines are complex. That history of art is complex, that fashion is complex, that relationships are complex. That politics is complex, that economy is complex, that law is complex.
But computing is not, it's just hard to do for normal people. All those freaks doing it have just built the whole industry for their own convenience. They are all openly or secretly autistic.
And now it's too expensive to switch from their freakish computing to computing understandable for normals.
We just have to break their resistance or outsmart them or bribe some of them so that they'd remake computing the normal way. But we can't do that immediately. It takes a lot of money, but the end result is worth it.
/s
This was also the reason for normies being so hell-bent on using social networks and other new shiny as opposed to what existed before them in 00s Web. Or for them being so excited about Apple. EDIT: Precisely because we, in their opinion people holding the bottleneck, collecting the Sound Toll, privileged group, some freaks, autistic children playing toys whom they can't accept as being smarter, were advising against those.
And now they are being literally promised the computer that works without programmers! And it even does some tricks to show them it works!
If any normies are reading this, don't feel insulted, it's only about the dumbest of you, and also it's not that harsh, you haven't seen what medical professionals write about normies.
I am a well educated person who uses these forums and many others with regularity and I have many opinions on tech after working in both marketing and the tech sector for a long time.
That out of the way, I will simply skip over any comment that says "normies" unironically. Especially over and over.
This isn't fucking 4chan, communicate like a human like the rest of us. You don't get out of being one of us. I don't even know your take because it's so distracting and immature and condescending.
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Isn't it good that the money is being put back into circulation instead of being hoarded? I'm all in for the wealthy wasting their money.
Kinda, but it’s like feeding a starving child nothing but candy until they die.
¯(ツ)_/¯
I’m willing to bet the vast majority of that money is changing hands among tech companies like Intel, AMD, nVidia, AWS, etc. Only a small percentage would go to salaries, etc. and I doubt those rates have changed much…
They typically use internal personnel and being parcimonious about it so you're right about that.
Yeah, the brightest minds instead of building useful tech to fight climate change, spend their life building vanity AI projects. Computational resources instead of folding proteins or whatever are wasted on some gradient descent of some useless model.
All while working class wages are stagnant. And so your best career advice is to go get a random tech degree so you could also work on vanity stuff and make money.
This is cryptocurrency equivalent. It's worse than CEOs buying yachts. The latter actually leads to some innovation.
The larger issue that people always fail to remember is the energy consumption. We are see massive amounts of electricity.
One peer-reviewed study suggested A.I. could make up 0.5 percent of worldwide electricity use by 2027, or roughly what Argentina uses in a year. Analysts at Wells Fargo suggested that U.S. electricity demand could jump 20 percent by 2030, driven in part to A.I.
The wealthy are under sailing like always. Just like we did with cigarettes or burning fossil fuels. We should have learned but it by the time we do, it might be to late.
Most people don't want to pay for AI. So they are building stuff that costs a lot for a market that is not willing to pay for it. It is mostly a gimmick for most people.
And like, it's not even a good gimmick. It's a serious labour issue because the primary intent behind a lot of AI has always been to just phase out workers.
I'm all for ending work through technological advancement and universal income, but this definitely wasn't going to get us that, so....
Well, why would I support something that mostly just threatens people's livelihoods and gives even more power to the 0.1%?
True for the consumer side, but I'd be willing to bet that a decent chunk of that money that giant corporations burned funded some serious research on AI that can go on to actually useful science things
Why don’t companies get this? If you make something free in the beginning, people will become conditioned that it’s not worth paying for.
Exactly. I have used quite a few products and my thoughts have been. That's cool, but when would I ever need this? The few useful usecases I have for it could use a small local model for very specific purposes and that's it. Not make them billions of dollars level of usefulness.
Wasting?
A bunch of rich guy’s money going to other people, enriching some of the recipients, in hopes of making the rich guy even richer? And the point of AI is to eliminate jobs that cost rich people money?
I’m all for more foolish AI failed investments.
It's a circle jerk, don't get fooled into thinking this is some new version of trickle down economics
It’s not trickle down at all. Definitely not what I was trying to say. Just rich people trading money among themselves in hopes of getting richer.
It makes rich guys even richer. At the expense of other rich guys and just fools attracted.
Here's a fitting AI generated Porky
I'm just happy that billions of dollars get poured into things like this that genuinely uplift society, rather than some crap like free medical visits or building homes
I've been reading a book about Elizabeth Holmes and the Theranos scam, and the parallels with Gen AI seem pretty astounding. Gen AI is known to be so buggy the industry even created a euphemistic term so they wouldn't have to call it buggy: Hallucinations.
AI is a ponzi scheme to relieve stupid venture capitalists of their money.
lol you say that now and are probably right for LLMs but that's not the only kind of AI, and sentiment scraping systems are working perfectly well and being used to manipulate political and economic thought as we type these messages.
To be fair, a large fraction of software projects fail. AI is probably worse because there's probably little notion of how AI actually applied to the problem so that execution is hampered from the start.
https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna27190518
https://www.zdnet.com/article/study-68-percent-of-it-projects-fail/
This was my first thought. VC's always expect 4 out of 5 projects they invest in to fail and always have. But it still makes them money because the successes pay off big. Is the money and resources wasted? Welcome to modern capitalism.
Ooh ooh now do restaurants!!!
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restaurants provide a service the same way landlords do. just bc you privatized an essential commodity does not immediately make your privatized entity a useful or essential service, and i detest the notion that it does. it’s circular logic.
EDIT: i’m getting downvoted but idc. i still think im right. weep all you want, but at its core, the buying and selling of goods/services represents an ethical dilemma at best and an atrocity at worst. the argument that restaurants are entirely a choice to go to is both overly broad and a straw man. restaurants often do impact people’s budgets and lifestyles, believe it or not. you can’t just blanket say they have no culpability in this arena because reasons. it is the mechanisms of the market and economy themselves that oppress us. it is not inherently human. it is not the only way to organize ourselves. we can do better, and we deserve better. who the fuck cares how much “value” literally anything has? i’ll trade you five smogels for a smilji. yay, everyone magically gained bc of the incantation! grow the fuck up. outdated ideas have no place in modern, civilized society. any imagined net benefits of money you can come up with are a drop in the bucket compared to its power as a stupid fucking thoughtworm
And honestly any business venture.
Everyone knows 4 of 5 restaurants will fail, and soon.
AI hype train is still going. The difference is people need to eat.
100%, the remaining 20% grift their way to success
That's great. Like 5% more fails than regular software projects. Why do people see this as validation for AI failing? Lol
Because they want it to be.
AI isn't going to fail, LLMs are going to fail and fail spectacularly.
Expert systems are already being very effectively used in medicine and astronomy, political sentiment shifting and HFTs.
Sentiment scraping expert systems are where the real danger and profit is, but everyone is being distracted by fuckdamn chat bots.
It's like the whole world freaking out about plastic straws when the real problem is microplastics settled in every fuckdamn organism on the planet.
Is that better or worse than IT and software projects in general? It sounds like it might be better.
From the article - "which is twice the failure rate for non-AI technology-related startups."
I guess I should a) read the article and b) have a slightly better outlook of the field I'm in.
This is very broad. Compare AI to software projects and it's like a 5% difference. Picking every non AI and put it into the same pool is very misleading.
It's much worse. Generally speaking projects in large corporations at least try to make sense and to have a decent chance to return something of value. But with AI projects is like they all went insane, they disregard basic things, common sense, fundamental logic etc.
The interviews revealed that data scientists sometimes get distracted by the latest developments in AI and implement them in their projects without looking at the value that it will deliver.
At least part of this is due to resume-oriented development.
I read bits of a programming book once, can't remember which one.
Halfway through it was revealed that all the code snippets they had were from a project that was abandoned before it was finished, once the people paying for it realised they no longer wanted it and stopped funding them.
I wasn't sure what message to take from the book after that. Like, sure, my code is a load of shit, hodge-podged together at the request of people who don't really know what they want, but at least I've got people out there using it...
As I said in a project call where someone was pumping up AI, this is just the latest bubble ready to pop. Everyone is dumping $$ into AI, a couple decent ones will survive but the bulk is either barely functional or just vaporware.
My new job even said they are using AI. It usurb every goddamm company shoving AI features on us.
Isn't that how innovation has always worked?
I feel like all this AI hate is comparable to any other innovation cycle.
Millions of light fabric and dowels wasted on crack pot "air heads" trying to design first ever flying vehicle
It sure feels like we're at the peak of the Gartner hype cycle. If so, the bubble will pop, and we'll end up with AI used where it actually works, not shoved into everything. In the long run, that pop could be a small blip in overall development, like the dot-com bust was to the growth of the internet, but it's difficult to predict that while still in the middle of the hype cycle.
Yeah I mean that's r&d 20% success is pretty strong in a new field.
Yeah. I'd love to see this compared to other R&D success rates.
Wow, who could have guessed
Ok so what do I short and when?
NVDA and good luck
Grifters grifting grifters in a death spiral of enormous scale.
Welcome to AI:
The hype-cycle is the exception, not the norm. Very commonly stuff just ends up dying.
like google search
or when looking at googlegraveyard
like google
From the ashes of the fallen will rise a victor. Let the fools burn their money on dead projects.
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So less diversity in founders? What's the perfect type that The Power should allow to do what they want?
Sounds like I need to train an AI model to predict this and charge people for it.
The circle of AI
Most startups fail.
Pareto principal for psyops, by a think tank organization too. Why is this nonsense tractable here?
Because AI reversed the ratio.
