Bulletins and News Discussion from June 10th to June 16th, 2024 - Havana Derangement Syndrome - COTW: Cuba

Image is of Cuba's National People's Power Assembly.

The most recent geopolitical news around Cuba is the arrival this week of four Russian vessels, including a nuclear submarine - not carrying any nukes, (un)fortunately - to Havana. This will, in Putin's words, merely be a visit celebrating historical ties and no laws are being broken. Nonetheless, it's not hard to imagine how American politicians and analysts are taking the news, especially as it comes shortly after Russia promised an "asymmetrical" response to further NATO involvement in Ukraine (notably, officially allowing the use of US weapons such as missiles in Russia, albeit in a small part of Russian territory, near the border).

Meanwhile, China has been increasingly co-operating with Cuba to overcome the economic hardship created by American sanctions. China has recently re-allowed direct flights to Cuba and has recently donated some small photovoltaic plants as part of an initiative to eventually boost the Cuban energy grid by 1000 MW - and any electrical expansion helps as Cuba is plagued by blackouts which last most of the day. Additionally, the EU has made meaningful contributions to Cuba's energy situation too, with large solar installations. Hopefully, the Belt and Road Initiative will help preserve the Cuban revolution against reactionary forces as the power of US sanctions wanes. The proximity of Cuba to the United States makes this much more challenging than it would be for countries elsewhere, however. Similarly to the situation in Mexico, it seems unlikely that the US's influence over Cuba will massively diminish for decades to come unless there is a catastrophic internal collapse in the American authoritarian regime.

The Havana Syndrome will continue until American morale declines.

The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.

The Country of the Week is Cuba! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

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1K comments

- a number of classified capabilities
  lol
  It is absolutely incredible and un-sane that the US openly, constantly screams about how badly it wants to go to war, and is openly planning a war with, it's largest and essential trade partner.
  also, the idea that the military has the ability to maintain the logistics train for thousands of any new complex system like thousands of robots operating in hostile conditions seems open to question.
  
  They're going to use drones to go to war with the country that makes their drones/drone parts.
- outlined a plan to deploy thousands of drones controlled by Artificial Intelligence, known as the “Replicator Initiative.”
  When Ur definitely the good guy in the doomsday movie
  
  When you have watched stargate: SG1 too many times.
- the idea would be to send thousands of drones, unmanned submarines, and drone boats into the Strait to buy time for the US and Taiwan to prepare a defense of the island.
  “I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape using a number of classified capabilities,” Paparo said. “So that I can make their lives utterly miserable for a month, which buys me the time for the rest of everything.”
  This is strategically idiotic. The description of using thousands of drones as something that is distinct from (buying time for) the defence of the island is out to lunch. Building thousands and thousands of drones and munitions will be the entire war, not just a month. Have these people learned nothing from Russia v Ukraine? Drones are consumable objects. A war isn't won by having a bunch of them stockpiled, it's won by having the productive and logistical capacity to replace losses and keep putting rounds on target. Their goal here is 18 months of production to buy 1 month of time - that is 5% the speed it needs to be.
  all-domain, attritable autonomy, or ADA2
  army guys have the worst acronyms
  
  Building thousands and thousands of drones and munitions will be the entire war, not just a month. Have these people learned nothing from Russia v Ukraine? Drones are consumable objects. A war isn't won by having a bunch of them stockpiled, it's won by having the productive and logistical capacity to replace losses and keep putting rounds on target.
  They're still living in the Iraq war days where all you had to do was utterly destroy and genocide the population you're fighting.
  
  The “classified capabilities” is actually the revelation of the Ghost of DC. When the Chinese think the swarm of drones have all been shot down, the Ghost will take down 500 Chinese warships
  
  You think the ghost of Taipei is fake? Google “the white terror”
- Adm. Samuel Paparo
  You ever read a name and instantly know that in 20 years you'll be hearing about how his terrible ideas got a bunch of people killed?
  
  Blowback Season 12: Operation [Taiwan] Strait Jacket
- So that I can make their lives utterly miserable for a month, which buys me the time for the rest of everything
  This is what developers say when they have no idea what the scope of the project really is
  
  2 years (optimistic) to do something that will buy me a month. I will definitely come up with something in that month that will win the war.
  
  The answer will be “ah shit ok. Nukes.”
  
  But they’re so close to China which is where all these US drones will be manufactured that’s got to be good for logistics
  
  Americans who have a realistic view of things that actually happen are overwhelmingly communists.
  
  China will obviously collapse after the first month. Just Ike Russia did.
  
  They need a month to sabotage all the TSMC and Foxconn factories beyond repair and then try to blame it on China like they did with Russia and Nordstream.
  
  all those statements about how the US is considering blowing up the semiconductor fabs in the event that a war with China begins will mysteriously evaporate into the ether the minute that the war over Taiwan begins, just like how all the articles about how Ukraine is infested with fascists were mysteriously much harder to find once the Ukraine War revved up
- The US has taken steps in the direction of developing swarms of drones for a future war with China.
  Just really laying that out there huh. Just naked aggression and China's supposed to be the bad guy lol
  
  Taken steps mean they have begun a meeting about setting up a committee to see if creating a committee to look at meeting about building drones is a good idea. Then, after several years, they will decide whether or not they have the productive capacity to do so. Which will lead to them asking China if they can manufacture drones for them.
  
  The MBA's are on it folks
- Military asks for thousands of autonomous drones within a year?
  They’ll get a hundred at fifty times the cost, in eight-ten years.
  
  And most of them will probably be rebranded Chinese drones which in turn funded real Chinese military production lol
- If the US moves thousands of drones into the strait or to Taiwan, that’s an act of war and China should strike immediately

1037 comments