2024: The Year Linux Dethrones Windows on the Desktop

What else am I missing?
The fact that 90% of people don't give a shit about ads, privacy or their operating system in general. They want a machine to open a browser, that's it. If Windows comes pre-installed, they'll use Windows.
The only realistic chance we've got is that MS shoots itself in the foot once more by all that Recall crap and businesses drop Windows. But that's a long shot.
- I find most people don't know of the alternatives but they are open to change as they are unhappy with current options that they are aware of. I've talked with a few people that were surprisingly open to to trying Linux. They didn't know how easy it is to use and install but jumped on the opportunity as they were unhappy with Windows.
  
  Changing to Linux means, people...:
  need to have an understanding of operating systems, so they can think about alternatives
  need to be aware of the actual alternative
  need to be willing to learn something new
  need to be willing to leave some applications or games behind
  need to choose a Linux distribution
  need the technical ability and understanding to actually download, flash and boot from boot system, install it and setup initial, such as root password and such
  These are basic and trivial stuff for us, but most normies don't have this understanding and interest to go this far. And then it depends if they are happy and stay. Even if every PC manufacturer and distributor would offere the same PC with Windows and Linux, most would just choose Windows (probably). This is the current reality.
  
  Until something breaks, or doesn't have a GUI. The average user seeing a terminal means they will abandon it. And even if they are willing to handle a terminal to fix an issue, the toxic community members that flock to be the first to respond condescendingly to new users will turn them away permanently.
  Linux communities have some of the most helpful users, but they also have people worse than a League of Legends game. And all it takes is one of them to turn the average person away forever.
  
  ... And then something happens and they want you to install Windows again.
  As much as I like Linux, compared to Windows and Mac OS it's high maintenance. Once in a while, things will bork themselves. And you need to have at least a rough understanding of what's happening to fix it.
  Also (and that's not a Linux problem per se) people seem to think if Windows breaks, MS or they themselves are at fault, if Linux breaks, that weird nerd and his hacker stuff are at fault.
- Businesses that already use Windows with all of the heavily integrated business-related stuff from Microsoft (AD, Exchange, SharePoint, Teams, Outlook, etc.) won't change that just because a feature that most likely can be disabled via GPO.
- Right! Sadly...😭
- It's true. I only use applications. The OS is a thing in the background that needs to get setup fast so I click an application and now I'm using my computer. I spend more time in my BIOS than I do the back of my OS.
  Whichever OS does that best will always be the most popular.
- Business versions of Windows either won’t have recall or the domain controllers will be able to enforce a rule against it.
- Then people move to Mac.
- Yes, but there are things that absolutely drove be crazy in Windows. When you switch to Korean, it would default to Latin characters, and you have to switch to Korean characters. Which is fine if you always use the Korean layout and just toggle between Latin and Korean characters, like most Koreans.
  But I am actually learning Korean and I speak more than one other language. When I switch to Chinese I expect it to type in Chinese. When I switch to Korean, I expect it to type in Korean.
  The most bullshit thing about Windows is if the default behavior doesn't suit you, there's no way to change it. You're stuck with how Windows works because it's batteries included.

Most of the points listed here don't matter a hoot to the average user.
- True.
  The only thing the average consumer will even notice is the end of support for Windows 10. However, once the prompt to upgrade to Windows 11 appears, 99% will click "yes" and forget about it. They might be a little annoyed by the changes, but that will be all.
  
  Nobody will notice end of support for Windows 10. Why would they? Nobody noticed end of support for Windows 7, either, and it's still up and running in many places where it really shouldn't.
  End users don't give a crap about security updates and as long as users don't bump into a lack of third party driver they won't even notice a difference. And yeah, like every other time they will eventually update to the current version once more practical issues crop up. 10 to 11 isn't even close to the harshest upgrade path MS has deployed.
  
  However, once the prompt to upgrade to Windows 11 appears, 99% will click “yes” and
  be informed that their computer does not support Win11
  and forget about it.
- That's slowly changing though, as the enschittification of windows continues. They may not care to know about the details, but all of those points do fall under the "it just works" catagory. And they do care about that.
  
  I agree. However if you look through the other comments in here, you'll see a LOT more examples of stuff that fall into the "it just doesn't work" category instead. And most of them are a lot more obvious to casual / new users. Those would be the ones that really require priority if Linux is ever to become mainstream.

There's more than a few reasons why Linux can't make the jump to holding a dominant position in the desktop market.
One is simply preinstallation. For companies (and therefore the general public) to adopt the Desktop Linux, they'd need it simply to be installed for them, with a Desktop Environment like Gnome or KDE.
Secondly is updates. As much as Linux users tout the control they have over when and how updates take place, and how much Windows users will always complain about having to update their systems, until system updates on Linux are made automatic (or at least given the option to be made automatic), there cannot be a mainstream Linux Desktop. This means updates that happen very much like Windows, no administrator/sudo password, just happens on reboot regularly.
The reason for this is mainly that the average user would never update unless forced, and then when something inevitably breaks, they are left, as always, frustrated that their computer just didn't work as expected forever without any upkeep, understanding, or updates.
Lastly is support. And this is multifaceted. By support I mean software support by companies like Adobe. I also mean a much farther reaching swath of random devices that literally plug and play like on Windows.
As an aside, I'll also say that since there is a move towards Wayland, there also needs to be a No Configuration Necessary way of running Nvidia on Wayland. This is less a Linux issue, and more a Nvidia one, but until pretty much any and all hardware works on Linux the way it just works on Windows, this sadly affects Linux Desktop adoption as more and more of the Linux Desktop ecosystem moves towards forcing Wayland adoption.
Finally I'll say that the Microsoft corporation at large obviously relies mainly on Corporate Adoption of its products and services, and that the Windows Desktop is simply one part of that greater whole. Their approach to competing with Apple and their walled garden ecosystem has been to slowly but surely create their own, its just so much larger you forget there are walls. They have done this by absorbing more and more of the tech ecosystem either by acquisition, invention, or otherwise. Examples ot this include Bing and All Search Engines that Use it, the pushing of TypeScript into JavaScript Development, the predominance and proliferation of VSStudio/VSCode in modern software development, their heavy involvement with OpenAI and aggressive pushing of AI products/services, their acquisition of Github and subsequent further expansion of influence over software development and distribution, and much much more.
Despite the privacy invasion, enshittefication of the user experience, and their various other ways they have mistreated their users specifically via the direction they've taken Windows, Microsoft has established itself as THE Desktop, as THE Workstation, and as THE company that comes to mind when the average person mentions "computer", and the majority of people associate computer related productivity and play with Windows.
For all the advances made to Desktop Linux, especially in recent years, it is unlikely that Linux Desktop adoption will ever proliferate to the kinds of mainstream adoption that its accolades desire. Until Linux (or at least a Linux distribution) can demonstrate what I've mentioned above (preinstallation, automatic/automated updates, and wide spread software/hardware support from various 3rd party vendors) along with demonstrating a work flow/user experience that is somehow both familiar to the user and also better than the experience on Windows, then the day of the Linux Desktop will never come.
This aforementioned demonstration, btw, would have to become obscenely apparent to the average every day computer user who just wants to get their work done, play a Video Game, and watch Netflix, all without having to ever even know what a terminal emulator is.
I love Linux, and I think the Linux Desktop is not only a superior user experience, but is just better in general than Windows. But the average user I've encountered generally hates their Computer if it doesn't work as expected 110% of the time. Linux, and honestly computers, will never be able to do that, but the closer the Desktop (and user facing GUIs more broadly) get to creating that illusion of "it all just works all the time", the more adoption you'll see.
- Pretty sure Ubuntu does hands off updates. And neither arch or Ubuntu required me to do any configuration to get Nvidia graphics working aside from the driver selection in the installer
  
  On X11, Nvidia is pretty close to plug n'play (unless you install multiple kernels, but even then it isn't so bad). Wayland has been a stuttery mess for Nvidia for a while now and there's a long standing issue up that hopefully will be resolved in 550 release.
  That said, linux desktop environment developers will likely have to adjust a large amount of environment variables (more than they probably have already) that thus far have had to be set by the User by hand. One has only to look at the Hyprland docs on setting up Nvidia to see the extent to which the bulk of the configuration is set on the User as it stands right now.
- no automatic updates
  Well it’s really not entirely true unless you’re on a rolling release (which most people should if they can do basic system administration themselves). Unattended updates were a thing in traditional Linux distros with frozen release cycles since forever. On any Ubuntu-based system it’s a matter of switching a toggle, and I think it could’ve been Mint that enabled that by default (I’m not sure) at least for security updates, because users never updated their systems. They can still be done much quicker and more transparently than Windows does that, without ever forcing users to reboot in any given time.
  The problem is also that once in like 5 years you absolutely have to upgrade system to a newer version to keep it updates in such scenario. Popping up a dialog with info that your system goes EOL and you’ll loose security updates and one click upgrade button should be enough.
  
  Yeah, Fedora has the closest I've seen to this, as they do a rolling release distribution cycle, but with a major update every year. It's still too hands on for the average Windows user from what I've seen.
  That said, in the particular case of the Fedora upgrade, I'll admit I get lazy in the other direction. If I can accomplish a task from the terminal, 99.9% of the time, I'll do it simply because it's exponentially faster.
- it is unlikely that Linux Desktop adoption will ever proliferate to the kinds of mainstream adoption that its accolades desire.
  And if it does, the acolytes will hate it and start pushing for BSD adoption, because there's a huge streak of hipsterism in the Linux community
  
  Ah BSD, the OS that probably doesn't have an NSA backdoor in it because it's just not worth their time, lol.
- the pushing of TypeScript into JavaScript Development,
  TIL that Typescript was developed by MS. It's "free and open-source" though, i'd say the hability for them to cripple it are minimal?
  GitHub was a blow though and it's why i recommend CodeBerg at every chance i get. They're on mastodon: @Codeberg@Codeberg@social.anoxinon.de
  I'd say Ubuntu is probably the distro closer to being the "desktop linux", Canonical's been trying to be like MS for years.
  
  Yeah, I generally agree with all sentiments. TS is handy at times, but working with poorly written .d.ts types from 3rd party libs is Hell.
  The MS acquisition of Github is sad imho. Using alternatives is nice. I'll eventually get around to self hosting a Gitea or cgit instance.
  Ubuntu, Mint, and PopOS are probably the closest to a mainstream Linux Desktop from what I've seen, and perhaps one day one of those really will take the mantle and push the Linux Desktop forward into the mainstream, but I just don't see it. I do hope I'm wrong though.
- This aforementioned demonstration, btw, would have to become obscenely apparent to the average every day computer user who just wants to get their work done, play a Video Game, and watch Netflix, all without having to ever even know what a terminal emulator is.
  That sums it all up. The average user wants a PC that just works. Terminal is a big no for the average user, and while we dont get gui ways of doing everything an average user does, it will be a big barrier. Even calamares needs to be waaaaay simpler (like a "i have no idea what im doing, configure it all for me" option).
- Pop has automatic updates now.
- nice doctorate thesis bro
  
  I think we should be thankful for having users contribute long-form thought-out content like this, instead of ridiculing them.

There one glaring issue. Most people don't really even know what an operating system is and some of the people I talk to think Linux is a manufacture.
I literally bring up Linux to my friend when they are having trouble getting windows to work and they say I think I have a linux. They mean it's a Lenovo but they seem pretty confused about the idea of installing a different OS on their machine. This isn't just older people but 20 something year olds (about my age).
It's funny to me but I try to be patient and help them with their problems anyway.
- Confusing Linux with Lenovo is pretty funny.
  
  My ex wife turned out to be a Lenovo. She and her new girlfriend seem very happy. /s
  
  I have Linux in a Lenovo.... What does it mean!!!!???
- wow I have never heard people being this ignorant. that sounds funnt, and a bit sad. too bad I have hp and not linux
  
  I can't blame them. There's a lot out there that I still remain ignorant of. I'm sure we're all a bit ill informed here and there.
- Is it just me or has using a brand name as a regular noun become really common? For example, Android-based devices are just referred to as “an Android”.

Dethrones? No. Not in the sense it will overtake Windows in numbers.
Grows its gamer ‘market share’? Absolutely.

No. Nobody cares, no matter what MS does. They can literally crap on users faces and they’ll happily lick it as long is Windows is the supported platform. And it will stay like that for decades to come.
We can expect some growth, because the tech savvy PC enthusiasts might want to look for alternatives, and if the desktop Linux is good enough, some will stick to it, some will go back, as it was always for last 30 years.
- Yeah it's tough to expect general users to switch. I would just like linux to go over 5% threshold so that companies seriously consider it.
- I was a Windows user up until a couple of years ago when I switched to Kubuntu and never looked back. I think after Windows 10 is gone, there will be a big uptick in Linux.
  
  People said that about Windows 7 EoL too, which was much more of a paradigm shift. Absolutely nothing happened. The dial for "market share" barely moved, let alone Linux increasing substantially.
  Just not gonna happen. I really wish it would, but it's just wishful thinking. Most people either don't care (they just "use a PC") or wouldn't know how to switch anyway.

I honestly don't care about dethroning windows or anything related to it. All that matters to me is that my Linux system works the way I need it to....
- You say that because you don't realize the benefits:
  Better support for Linux with any new PC hardware on day 1. This includes things like USB devices, monitors, KVMs, UPS, everything.
  Better support for all commercial software in general. More software will become available and it'll be higher quality.
  Vendors will be forced to test all their stuff on Linux which means it'll all become more reliable and less glitchy.
  There will be more diversity in software and distros which means widespread attacks (aka hacking, worms, viruses, etc) will have less success and smaller impacts.
  The more Linux users there are the more Linux developers will result. It's also much easier to start learning how to code on a Linux desktop than it is in Windows.
  Better security for the entire world. Linux has a vastly superior security architecture than Windows and a vastly superior track record. The more Linux users there are, the harder it will be for malicious entities to break into their PCs which translates into a more secure world.
  It's much easier (for experienced users) to troubleshoot and fix problems in Linux than in Windows. This will lead to support teams everywhere getting frustrated whenever they have to deal with Windows users (this is already the case for many software vendors, haha). Therefore, it makes support people happy and easy going. Who doesn't want to reach a happy, helpful person for technical support instead of the usual defiant/adversarial support tech? 😁
  The worst sorts of hardware vendors won't be able to get away with their usual bullshit. For example, if there were enough Linux users HP wouldn't be offering extremely invasive 2GB printer "drivers" because their Windows customers would know enough Linux users that they'd be rightfully pissed and not depressively submissive like they are now.
  When you do have a problem it will be easier to find a solution because the likelihood that someone else already had it and posted a solution will be higher (though admittedly this factor doesn't seem to do much for Windows currently because of how obtuse and obfuscated everything is in that OS).
  There's actually a lot more reasons but that's probably enough for now 😁
  
  better security for the entire world...
  The moment Linux takes over as a dominant desktop/laptop OS we'll start seeing a metric ton of the windows hackers follow suit to attack us. We'll end up in a situation where they'll probably go after some random kernel bugs that nobody else.has found yet or just don't think are critical/exploitable. Or they'll just attack the biggest, most widely used distros, going after people using them and any derivative distro similar enough for their malicious tools to work on it.
  In general though, it would be a good thing for Linux to become a lot more prominent in the desktop/laptop market for general users. Especially since I imagine thanks to Linux being open source, people would be able to stop these malicious actors from doing damage much quicker (even though I imagine the majority of normal people switching over would almost never update because they're used to forced updates and not having to do it themselves).
  
  There will be more diversity in software and distros
  I wish, but I doubt it. If we get to the point where there is a mass migration from Windows to Linux, it will almost certainly be concentrated into one or maybe two big distros. Probably Ubuntu.
  Today, most proprietary software vendors only support Ubuntu and RHEL. Look at AMD. The ROCm installer supports Ubuntu 22.04, RHEL 9, and SLES. That's it. Not even modern versions of Ubuntu. And it's extremely ornery about dependencies. Python 3.8 or 3.10 required! No 3.9! No 3.11! Trying to get it to install on any modern Debian-based distro is the ninth circle of Dependency Hell.
  
  Right now it’s sort of up to Nvidia and Wayland. Desktop sound is in good shape, desktop color (profiles and matching) and fonts are not there yet. Ray tracing and hdr have proven how much of a second class citizen desktop Linux is, so right now the most important factor is the SteamDeck for pushing the envelope to implement new tech. Chinese and German goverments moving to Linux helps but to be honet, I think that the “office and browser” use case is pretty well covered.
  
  Possibly. But it's also pretty common in many instances of technology adoption that as more users come, the quality gets worse, and while open source doesn't have to worry about a shareholder-driven profit motive driving it, it's still easy to wind up with a muddled focus. I wouldn't expect that Linux and all of the associated software projects that make the functional desktop are going to be an exception overall. If you're an open source developer working on a project now, basically any user is some form of power user, and it's easier to find consensus of what to prioritize on a project not only because Linux users tend to be better about understanding how their software works and are actually helpful in further development, they're also likely to direct development towards features that make software more open, compatible, and useful.
  Now fast forward to a future where Linux is the majority desktop OS, those power users are maybe 5% of the software's user base, and every major project's forum is inundated with thousands of users screaming about how hard the software is to use and, when bug reports and feature requests are actually coherent, they mostly boil down to demands for simpler, easier to understand UIs. I can easily imagine the noise alone could lead to an exodus of frustrated developers.
  Some things are better for NOT trying to be the answer for everyone.

Anybody seriously believing this has a misunderstanding of how little people care about what OS they use and how much they care that it works the way they expect.
- Most people don't. But if they keep chipping away their customers, Linux might reach a threshold where it's more convenient to switch.

You know what gets ppl to use Linux? 100% Software compatibility out of the box and OEM who preinstall Linux distros.
Barely anyone outside the bubble oft techies and enthusiasts cares. You have to BRING it to the users. For most oft them comfort is king after all.

Ah yes, this year is definitely the year of the Linux desktop. For real this time!
- There's a real opportunity here and we can either take it and run or we can let it pass us by.

Windows 11 getting Copilot+ Recall
- And a shit-ton of ads.
  
  And the kitchen sink
  Oh wait that's the next KDE release

The problem is usability for non power users. As a server environment nothing beats it but man the UI on these apps have some horrendous defaults and the CLI is everywhere. KDE still can't get rounded corners right.
- Though I agree with your overall point, I can’t see why rounded corners (or the lack of it) might be a noticeable issue.
  
  Whenever I install Linux on someone's computer, the first thi that they ask is always "why aren't the corners properly rounded? I can't use this!"
  (No, this has never happened, but it would be funny, I'd get to smack them over the head)

What else am I missing?
Global Linux usage stats vs global Windows usage stats for PC Desktops.
- Linux is roughly at 3.88% market share. You don't think we can bump Linux adoption to 99.9% in the next six months?
  We just have to keep writing these "Year of the Linux" posts every year.
  
  You mean 50.1% !
  
  Come on.. don't be so pessimistic!!

We say this every fucking year! Come on, this is getting ridiculous! Stop it! There will never be a year of the Linux desktop and if anything, this post shows why.
So much of the Linux community is utterly detached from what really matters to most users and focus on things that 80% of people won't ever understand, care about or even use.
We focus on this and meanwhile, little quality of life features constantly get ignored when these are the real things that users will encounter and that will piss them off. They get treated as trivial. They get ignored in favor of other things.
Somebody mentioned it here. I saw it and I didn't need them to mention it to want to say it. It's already something that's pissing me off. On Fedora for my Framework Laptop there is no way to adjust the scrolling speed on my trackpad which is moronically fast.
We are on the 40th release of Fedora, the 46th release of GNOME, and somehow this still isn't baked in. I still have to go look around and use the fucking terminal to do something this basic. When some of them try Linux and will eventually push them to go back to Windows. And when users complain about this, what do we get? A bunch of elitists telling them to fuck off to go back to Windows, which I also saw as responses to this complaint about the trackpad.
Listen, Linux is an amazing project and I love it. I daily drive it. I don't use Windows anywhere in my life. I haven't touched OS in like two years at the very least. So many things that we are celebrating as brand new things that are finally working properly are things that already work by default on Windows and have been for years. We're not going to convince people by mentioning that, "oh, we fixed this thing that's been working forever on Windows." It works on Linux now. People need more than this.
You want to know the sad truth? Here we go. We, collectively here, users of platform like Lemmy, are a vocal minority who are detached from the reality of most users. We care about ads, we care about privacy and so on, but the reality is most that people don't. Most people won't even notice that those things are there. For so many people, Windows is just the thing that stands between them and launching Chrome. It already works for them. There's no reason for them to switch.
We are all way too invested in what runs on our computers and we forget that we are just us. Most people are not like us. Privacy scandals stop us from using stuff like social media and so on, but it clearly hasn't stopped most of the world.
People heard about the shit that Meta was and is doing. Did people stop using Instagram? No, they didn't. People know what Google is doing, how many of them switched to DuckDuckGo? A clinical moron turning the platform into a far-right haven didn't stop most users from using Twitter.
The API bullshit didn't stop most users from using Reddit. Sure there were protest, but I guarantee you that 99% who took part in the blackout just went back to it after. A lot of us didn't. We left. We're here now. But we're still a tiny minority.
Ask a Firefox user did telling Chrome users that privacy was important ever worked? I'm sure you will get examples of it working but it's a minority. Most people don't give a shit and they use Chrome.
I don't have a solution. I'm sorry, I made this long-ass comment but I don't have much else to say. I don't have a good solution to this problem.
- Lol and we're forgetting the biggest QOL feature of all: actually coming installed with pre built computers.
  Chrome OS was the only one to ever make a dent.
  Without that this will always be a "power" user OS. People just want it to work.
  
  I think this is the only feature that matters. For a user switching away from Windows I would love to hear about the user experience between buying a system76 (or another Linux system seller) vs a Mac laptop. Complaining that Linux doesn't work with your hardware is like complaining that the hackintosh that you built doesn't work with your hardware.
- Seriously. I think Linux users expend 10x the energy worrying about ads on Windows than actual windows users. If you're used to seeing hundreds of ads / day on the web, why the hell would you care about an occasional onedrive popup.
  Re touchpads totally agree as well, I installed fedora kde on my mom's abandoned laptop a couple weeks ago and it was atrocious. Limited gestures, no configurability, no smooth scroll, no scroll momentum except in apps that implement it manually, scrolling speeds totally off. I managed to fix most of these, but regular people can't be expected to.
  Battery life, for another is unpredictable and quite bad. Most people I've talked to seem to assume performant/light = efficient when it comes to Linux. This is not the case. Once again, solutions exist, but they are not accessible to a regular person.

I love how delusional people here are.
Joking lol but serious that it will never happen. Windows has waaay too much of a monopoly for that to never happen.
Like wtf, am I supposed to tell my mom to use the terminal to download ms word? Oh wait sorry you can use libre office! It's the same but...... Well it looks different. And isn't as functional.
- People around here are delusional a lot of times, but to say that windows has too much of a monopoly to lose market, is too much of an exaggeration. Microsoft has been taking unpopular decisions, newer windows versions have been facing more and more resistance, macos has been growing and taking a share of the market, some governments and smaller businesses have been trying linux as a way to cut expenses, linux usability have been improving a lot, android devices have been taking more steps into taking functionalities from desktop systems and improving usability with keyboard and mouse, a lot of computers that do simple processing have been replaced by sbcs, like raspberry pis, etc.
  Windows isn't too big to fail, and it's not impossible that we're close to see it starting to fall. Now, on what os would become the bigger player, that's another story.
  Fun fact: My elderly mother uses linux, and without my help. Also, she never used the terminal.
  
  Same thing here my grandparents and some other old age people which i know using linux mint.I installed it to their pc 5 years ago and up to date,it's works fine for them before on windows it was nighmare while they were catching ads malware while browsing the net.
  
  some governments […] have been trying linux as a way to cut expenses
  I have been hearing such news for close to two decades but not without news where many such organisations switch back to using proprietary software due to a mixture of reasons ranging from usability to politics.
- I agree that it's not the year of the linux desktop, and that people who think it is are very naive, but you don't need to tell anyone to use the terminal for anything for many distros.
  
  Until you encounter some weird glitch that needs to be fixed using the terminal. It happens maybe once every couple of months for me, but it still happens. Even so, I’m considering switching fully after windows 10 goes EOL.
- You're right but I have seen old people getting some Ubuntu/Mint installed and set up and they email & spreadsheet away just fine.
  I guess the only who will have to tinker are gamers (or very specific power users?).
  Others just doesn't even know or care about the OS.

My personal definition of "the year of the Linux desktop" is when we hit a market share % that starts to convince companies to take Linux support seriously. I don't think we're that far off from that happening and if Microsoft keeps adding in these terrible "features" to windows, more people will move over. Is 2024 the year for that? Probably not but I wouldn't be surprised if it happens before 2030.
- A friend brought up some Ubisoft game (that I'm not that interested in) that is exclusive to their launcher. I was 90% sure this was an indication there was no hope for Linux there. I googled it and they apparently had already promised they would be strongly supporting Linux. A shitty company like Ubisoft is supporting it. I think we're very close.
  I'd be very curious to see the hours played on games by OS. The last data I saw of probable usage percent had Linux at 4%, but I'd bet a large number of Windows and Mac machines are mostly just web browser machines. I would suspect Linux users are more likely to be gamers as they've already shown more interest in technology.
  I don't know what percent we need to be mainstream, but we're on a good trgectory. If we can manage to hit 10% I doubt it could be overlooked anymore. Also, every person who swaps over is one more person who's likely to push others to swap. It's a slippery slope. We'll get there.
  
  I'd bet a large number of Windows and Mac machines are mostly just web browser machines
  Just getting these devices (libraries come to mind) to switch to some LTS distro would bump Linux market share quite a bit.

When windows 10 stops working is the better chance. Even then, not convinced it'll be year of Linux.
- I once ran a poll on Reddit asking why people switched to Linux. More people responded it was because Microsoft launched a new hated version of Windows than Microsoft discontinued an old beloved version. ie more people switched because Win 8 came out than Win 7 died.
  
  I get the sense that both of those two things are somewhat true here. They’re getting rid of 10, and people want to avoid 11.
  
  My dad switched for vista, I switched for 10 for a while. Who knows, maybe I'll switch for 11 too
  
  I dual-booted for a while & was on Microsoft Windows 7. I was using it less & less--usually just to play specific game. When MS Windows 10 was announced with an all new set of privacy invasive features on by default & 7 was going to be phased out, & as I got older with less time I wanted to spend with games, I decided to completely pull the plug on Microsoft & saying that there were enough games out there that worked on Linux (Proton infancy) that if Linux support wasn’t out of the box, I would just choose something else. The same will happen with some folks as 10 support is pulled--where if I thought 10 was too privacy-invasive, 11 + Recall is a nightmare.

I switched from Windows to Linux full time around Feb 2024.
I think Linux is ready for desktop use.
- I switched in 2021 and I thought the same then.
- I’m a Mac guy and I have a PC for gaming. I just installed Mint on my PC and it has been working great for gaming. I probably won’t need Windows ever again.
  
  Most games work on Linux or with Steam Proton.
  But some games still don't or has kernel level anti-cheat systems.
  I would just ignore those games.
- I stopped using Windows in the XP era. Later on I started working in a job that required me to have a Win8 laptop. 2 years later I reverted back to Linux once I stopped working there and had Win8/10 as a game OS. But my main "serious" usage was on Linux.

It is a good list ( from an “alternative to Windows” point of view ). In particular, you make a good case for the gaming side of things.
Unfortunately, even if that is all Linux needs, the hordes take time to arrive. The big impact of changes this year will be seen in the migration numbers 3 years from now. The biggest opportunity is probably the Windows 10 EOL and that is not until the end of next year. By then, many gamers will have Windows 11 capable hardware.
I do think that gamers and devs are the two groups likely to lead the charge on the next wave of Linux adoption. .NET dev in particular already has a lot of momentum on Linux with the transition from desktop to cloud and the primacy of Linux in container based workflows. Things are not quite there yet for .NET mobile dev on Linux. I bet most .NET devs that have left Windows are using Macs these days though. That said, that means they are already using tooling quite easily migrated to Linux including bath Rider and VS Code as you say. In the cloud, .NET must be “deployed” more to Linux than to Windows by now.
That last point is the most important I think. Windows is no longer the most important platform for Microsoft—Azure is. Microsoft is quite happy to let you use Linux on Azure. In fact, Azure pipelines and .NET itself are faster on Linux at this point. It is still “developers, developers, developers” for Microsoft but it is now more cloud than desktop. That changes the role of Windows at Microsoft.
I think it is perhaps less what we think about Windows and more about what Microsoft thinks about Windows that matters.
The other crown jewel is Office. Office 365 is a subscription. It is increasingly a “cloud” offering as well. Soon, they will not care about Windows as a delivery vehicle for Office either.
As Windows starts to matter less strategically, the question will increasingly be how to monetize the Windows user base more heavily. That is more ads, more data mining, more AI, and an increasingly crap experience. More and more, Windows Product Managers will be rewarded for their short-term gains and incremental revenue. Stewardship of the platform will move further and further into the background.
That is how Linux will win.
It won’t be this year though.

https://yotld.com/
- Bro just trust me bro it's year of the Linux desktop bro everyone will use Linux bro
  
  That's been true every year since I stated paying attention. In 1997.

This isn't the first time Microsoft has pushed telemetry and malware in its OS. But I think they have finally crossed the line with CoPilot. What they want to do with it is so incredibly obvious and intrusive that most people just won't stand for it.
- You're vastly overestimating how much the average consumer cares about these things
- I think the EU will take the lead with regulations. They're already onto the phone number for sign-in thing. They're kinda slow, but less slow, ya know?
- Well.. I think you are putting too much expectation on a common person. I'm pretty sure a lot of people are going to be 'mind blown', by the ability of the new Recall feature. They will hail it as a technological marvel. Very few people care about privacy, and even in that, very few people really understand how they can have some privacy. Complete privacy is near to impossible.
- They're definitely going to back down. I'm guessing they're going to back down a little (maybe create an opt out for the enterprise customers?) and then claim victory, but we'll see.

You forgot "Recall".
I wanted to make a wordplay here, but I couldn't find one.
Anyway, a lot of people are worried about the OS remembering everything you are doing like it's taking screenshots all the time.
For my part, that would be a big no-no.
- Recall does things that weirdly, a malware would have done back in the day.
- it's currently opt-in rather than opt-out, fully on-device and won't work on devices with weak NPUs (or on any which completely lack it)
  unless it changes in the future it's not that bad at the moment tbh
  
  Of course it's on-device. Microsoft is doing all the processing on people's PCs, rather than their own servers, where they'd have to pay for that computation.
  Data still gets reported to MS afterwards.
  
  ...until a botched update or a bug sends everything to the cloud, MS makes an about face saying oops my bad, then say it was fixed.

There’s absolutely zero reason to expect Linux mass adoption as it is NOT happening anytime soon. What can happen instead is increased market share to something like 10% and even that is super optimistic from a long time user perspective.
The focus should mainly go to relatively technical users that can at least manage basic stuff and not mass market consumers. It’s good when people try Linux, yes, but it’s even better when they find it useful, it does what they need and they keep using it, not just trying and go back to a primarily supported OS that’s maybe invasive but “at least it works”.
- Desktop computing is transitioning from mainstream to niche. Increasingly, “normal” computing is phone, tablet, and web. Normal people increasingly use desktops as big screens for the web.
  Linux is a great platform for people to access their applications on the web. It is a good option at this point to give to your aging parents to grand parents the next time you have to setup a computer for them.
  The other people buying desktops are buying them for things like gaming or dev. These are more technical audiences as you suggest. Gamers are a certain kind of technical though. We are almost at the point with Linux that gaming could go mainstream. I think it already makes a good ( perhaps the best ) dev platform.
  Where Linux is worst is probably “technical” Windows users as these are the desktop people that are going to have specific needs and organizations that Linux may not meet. Part of the problem with Linux is that this is the group it has been targeting. That has led to a lot of desktop complexity.
  Don’t get me wrong. I am one of the people taking advantage of and contributing to the diversity and complexity of the Linux desktop. That is not helping it make the jump to mainstream desktop users though.
- The future of computing is not computers. Computers, by and large, are trending down. There is already mass adoption of Linux. Android. Steam decks.
  Computers with keyboards and mice are increasingly obsolete. Fighting for market share there is like trying to become the biggest vendor of sailing boats in the steamer era.
  
  PC computers were already replaced for different use cases so yes, the market shrunk, but they will stay relevant for many others for a long time. Simple tasks can easily be achieved with super convenient rectangles that are effectively computers with different input methods, but they just won’t cut it for anything more complex like 3D modeling, CAD, video editing etc. 30 years ago it was impressive when PCs could hold a large collection of digital music with instantaneous access to all of it. Now it’s just plain irrelevant, as basically all music known to human can be accessed from anywhere with just a handy rectangle. But then even relatively simple tasks like doing taxes is a daunting task on a smartphone, and only a tiny bit more convenient on a tablet.
  Of course at some point computers with completely different input and output methods can put all we know today into obsolescence, but I think we’re not even close. Some may say that VR headsets will be the thing, but personally I don’t believe so. While having virtual 3D viewport is fun and games, people seem to ignore what it takes away. Simple things like being able to see the same thing on a screen by multiple people without some video sinks between headsets or ability to interact with things without having to wear helmet or putting anything on (however lightweight it is), would be gone. Don’t get me wrong, they can certainly have their place and things they’re really good or the best at, but it’s just not going to easily replace more traditional input methods. More likely something like holographic displays paired with motion sensors recognizing body movement or some shit

linux is at single digit percentages and that's including steamdecks so... no, not even clsoe

Dethrone? Probably not.
Start taking up a noticeable share of the demographic of systems? Probably
Before this year is out I'm switching my systems to Linux and before Windows 10 EoL I'm having to switch some relatives to Linux because their systems can't handle Windows 11 and I'm not going to buy them new systems.

that AI-generated file really wasn't necessary

- ChromeOS though is a category on its own. Just because there is a Linux kernel in it, doesn't make it a Linux desktop.

I hope you're right. What I did was let my kids use Linux, whatever distro they wanted, and they have used Windows only at school. I think this is the way to do it, expose this growing generation to good software and keep them away from the enahitified ones, while explaining the importance and joy of privacy.
If we all do that with our kids, the next generation will have less sheep following all the commercial crap out there.
- I’m planning on doing the same thing. I only have Linux installed at home. If they really need Windows for something I could always spin up a VM.

Here's the hilarious reality:
I installed Fedora Workstation on a laptop yesterday, just to check out how that's going.
I'm probably reverting it to Windows because there is no tool to adjust the scroll speed of the touchpad.
And that's what that takes.
- This is exactly the kind of issue that the average person might deal with, or it will be a deal breaker and they'll never try again. Even if you can customize something via a config file, the average user will never do that. If there is no easy GUI in a normal location (like system settings) for something they want to adjust, it might as well not exist.
  Average users either will accept all the inconveniences, or none. If it is more inconvenient than what they are used to right off the bat, they will go back and never try again.
  
  To be clear, I'm far from the average user. I've installed Linux on my PCs many times over multiple decades. I'm looking at a RedHat installation CD that was printed in a different century right now. I'm way more tech-savvy and platform-agnostic than the average Windows user.
  And even I went "wait, GNOME hasn't figured out mousewheels and touchpads in 25 years? Yeah, nope, I'm out".
  Desktop Linux is a hobby for hobbyists. If you think troubleshooting that stuff, customizing your setup and distro-hopping for fun are engaging things to do on your PC it's a good time. If in the process of doing that you set it up just like you want it the performance, stability and compatibility aren't terrible. By the time I hit those annoyances I had a mostly working setup. Audio was fine, iGPU was fine, touchscreen was fine, performance and responsiveness were better than Windows, manufacturer software alternatives were installed and mostly working.
  But if you just want a computer that works any one of these roadblocks is a dealbreaker. Going online and seeing the related drama (posts complaining that GNOME devs will close issues about this out of personal preference or spite, hacky half-solutions, arguments about whether this is a real issue or how much better/worse other platforms or distros are) the entire ecosystem seems less than serious and definitely not sustainable for any device you need for user-level, reliable use.
- that (and many other irritants) is why I switched to plasma. please try it before going back, it's way better in every regard.
  
  I may because I'm clearly an outlier and it's a bit of an experiment now, but...
  ... you realize how just saying that is an absolute dealbreaker for Linux, right?
  I mean, if you're a base Windows user trying Linux for the first time, it is arcane gibberish. If you're just trying to get a working computer it's a major hassle. If you're, like me, a grumpy old fart, you're getting flashbacks of sitting in front of a Pentium-133 doing this exact exercise of flipping back and forth across environments and bumping against different frustrations on each and just can't believe this is still the feedback you're getting online this many decades later.
- Honestly, I am so tempted to ditch Linux because of minor issues like this. No autoscroll on scroll wheel, no option for mono audio, etc etc. I do not want to set up a million scripts to customise my experience, I want the options to be there by default. If MS wasn't screwing the pooch I probably would have moved back at some point.
  
  All of those things have nothing to do with GNU/Linux and everything with the desktop environment you chose.
  
  I highly suggest windows for both of you. If minor issues like this bother you while major issues like data collection and ad pushing dont and you dont want to participate in making linux better by submitting bug reports then linux may just not be for you.
  Its very much like owning a house or a ranch. You‘re free of others and can do whatever you like. But you do have to do your own maintenance.
  If you want to go back paying rent for a shoebox apartment, thats your choice.
- Yep. To me it was the lack of a working fingerprint reader.
- I run Fedora Kinoite on my work laptop and this is what the system settings look like. If GNOME can't do that, then it indeed seems like a massive flaw.
  
  It doesn't, and it can't. Also can't do any UI scaling between 100 and 200% out of the box. There are some astounding gaps in it for how long it's been around.
- GNOME is bad. Abandon GNOME. If you like the UI of Windows, try KDE Plasma 6. It's much more feature rich than GNOME and very customizable too. And touchpad speed can be adjusted in the System Settings application.
  
  I mean, it is, but part of the appeal with the stock GNOME was how streamlined and un-Windows-like it was. I tried moving to KDE but, honestly, it does feel a bit worse to use.
  Not that it matters, because eventually a bunch of other more fundamental unsupported features made me switch back instead. Couldn't get the Nvidia dGPU to work and messed things up enough in the process that I'd have to start over, which is a dealbreaker. Plus it turns out that the suspend/restore functionality was completely broken and the hardware volume buttons were partially broken.
  So yeah, no, I'm back to Windows now.

Nah, the average "just werks" user won't leave Windows even if it took money out of its credit card.

Unless Linux is the default, it will never become significant in the mainstream. It is however thanks to improvements like these that OEMs can consider selling it pre-installed
Also I would to remind some here that the reason Linux can exist on the desktop today is because it is a very good way for Microsoft to get less antitrust fines. Otherwise the bootloaders would all be locked and there would be one or two devices that are unlocked.
This is also my main concern about the Qualcomm elite x: everybody is saying "hurray it will support Linux" but the actual cpu support was never really the issue. It's the boot process and device trees that is problematic and I don't see this being talked about enough. If it does not adhere to a standard device detection process like with Acpi via Arm System Ready we are cooked for arm laptops.
- I don't really understand the argument of "people will use what ships." I don't think Linux is great at the out of box experience unless you count something more locked down. They great part about Linux is that it gives you a lot of control. These days you don't need to know all the details of how to use that control but I think Linux will become much more popular in the semi tech savvy type crowd. It is already wildly popular in tech.
  
  I don’t really understand the argument of “people will use what ships.”
  Because that's just how things are. Why do you think Google pays billions yearly to be the default search engine wherever they can?
  
  For the same reasons people don't change their engines in their cars unless it's needed. For the same reason people don't install custom ROMs anymore. For the same reasons most people buy consoles instead of making their own computers.

THE YEAR OF LINUX IN THE DESKTOP!
It’s like Lucy and the football.
- Who is Lucy?
  
  https://peanuts.fandom.com/wiki/Football_gag

What else am I missing?
Large scale manufacturers pre-installing Linux? Readily available multi-language support for home users? Coherent UI regardless of computer and distro underneath. Billions on lobbying money spent on politicians for favorable policy crafting? Billions spent on marketing campaigns to actually sell the idea to the masses who simply don't care any of your points (or any technical reasons, privacy or anything else that might be top of mind of the current Linux userbase).
I'd say Linux has a good chance of capturing 5-6% of the market in the coming years if lucky (I believe we're somewhere around 4% at the moment), unless one of the big tech monopolies decides to start throwing money into it (Like Google did with Android)

I wonder if atomic desktops would change manufacturers' mind. We have to admit LTSes like from Ubuntu failed to make pre-installed Linux popular.
Silverblue contains too much cutting-edge software to be pre-installed as of now, but if Red Hat decides to provide a mechanism for manufacturers to better stabilize Silverblue I'd take it seriously. Automatic updates with cleanly split customization mechanisms, and the source is available. If the PC is just supposed to do web browsing with couple peripherals like a fucking printer (don't ask me why), it might be preferable over Windows. And my relatives can't configure Windows on their own anyway.
At the same time I don't know why Chromebook isn't more popular cus it's probably good enough for 90% of use cases. (The rest is basically elderly people who want 10GB photos in their 2TB SSDs, only to lose them "accidentally". Maybe Chromebook can do that, too, but I just can't recommend it due to corner cases I'm not aware of. I mean, I don't want to test Chromebooks for my relatives.)

I think it's going to take a Microsoft catastrophe, something that disables machines for at least a few days. I'm thinking maybe a buggy windows update.
- Or a forced update to windows 11 on machine that doesn't support it. That would break the windows install for good. Either they will find a way to install windows again or take it to somebody who installs windows on it again. Maybe maybe they'll find out about Linux.
  Anti Commercial-AI license
- Meanwhile total recall happening with AI+Copilot
- So what happened with Bing a few hours ago but for end-users...
- You guys know that MS rolls out updates through a system of multi-layered opt-in channels and deploy to the wider channels in chunks over longer periods of time, right?
  They may not be the most competent or scrupulous megacorp, but they do hire actual software engineers and stuff.

Any source regarding "VR being usable" on linux? The current development seems pretty stale and it doesn't seem like that's gonna change anytime soon, especially if you own any Oculus headsets that predates the quest. I do hope the rumors of valve making the deckard are true, but those are just rumors and should be taken with a grain of salt.
- I mean... it just works? Since the Index is out it's just been working basically. Not sure what else would be needed. Sure being able to use Quest headsets would be nice but unless Meta decides to open up, I don't think it would happen. IMHO that's a vendor problem, not the OS lacking support, sadly.
  
  It's definitely a vendor problem rather than an os problem. But it's still a problem that the biggest manufacturer in the VR space has no support for Linux, hence i find it a bit farfetched to say VR is usable on Linux when the most popular hardware is not being supported by it's vendor.
  Though there are community efforts like Monado that looks pretty promising!
  
  Wait, if Steam VR works on Linux for Index are Quest HMDs not usable through Steam Link? Or does that still need the Oculus software installed? I'm not actually sure.
- Any source regarding “VR being usable” on linux?
  I use VR with my Index almost every week on Linux. Filled to the brim with minor issues but definitely useable.
  Still looking forward to a Deckard announcement, the Index is starting to show its age.
- SteamVR 2.0 dropped a bit ago, though it didn't do much for Linux users...
  But it does point to something still happening with VR over at Valve.

Because here are many people who did a switch to linux. How did you handle using a cad software like solidworks or fusion360 after switching to linux?
- Same thing for any other software, see if you can get it running in wine, and see what the alternatives are and try them out until you find a solution you like. You need to accept there may be change, and may need to experiment and hit up Google to find solutions, but solutions do exist.
  From a quick Google search, i found about 4/5 potential open source options
  FreeCAD would probably be what I try first, but it's hardly the only option and seen some people complain that it feels archaic (but it's FOSS). I've also seen draftsight recommended a few times, and it has a free trial but is not free.
  Also apparently fusion360 has a web interface that may be usable.
- freecad is horrible, not really worth trying.
  I've heard of people getting fusion 360 running great with a snap, but others say it has issues. the github for it is being actively maintained, so thats a good sign at least.
  I tried to get siemens solid edge working through wine, but it was mostly broken and I didn't dig too deep into troubleshooting, I just dualboot windows for fussy programs and anticheats

The one thing that would drive my parents over the edge is ads in Windows. They already use Firefox and Libreoffice.

Nvidia 555/560 will be out for a perfect no stutter Nvidia performance
God I really hope that'll be true.

lol

Given the nature of fediverse, this specific category of people might indeed throw away Windows for their private machines.

Been seriously thinking of switching to linux for my desktop. I mostly use it for games. Today I was looking at mods for Mass Effect, and the mod manager says in all caps - LINUX IS NOT SUPPORTED :(
There's probably going to be a lot of that sort of annoyance for years.
- You might still try using Proton or Lutris to run it. It may be a pain to get working, but hopefully someone out there has a guide for the mod manager you're using.
- Nah. What hes saying its that they are not supported natively. The game is Gold on protondb, so its playable on Linux. Just use Wine to run your mods. Simple

Linux is about on-par with windows xp/7 as it stands, and it has been for a while. The reason people haven't switched is OEM and software support.

Like. I can't even rub Wayland on my 4090. Its a black screen. This happens with manjaro kde. With mint I can at least see my (frozen, unresponsive, unusable) desktop.
This all sounds cool and stuff but I kind of wish people would, like, shut the fuck up about Wayland? My understanding is that NY experience.is far from unique. People that own PCs have nvidia cards. Unless "the year of the Linux desktop" involves everyone vaporating anmd cards that magically have cuda cores somehow out of their asses then nothing about Wayland really matters to us.
You can "get an and" card to me all you want, but here's the thing: I don't fucking want one. I use my cuda cores. Its why I spent as much as I did on a 4090.
I guess 555 is supposed to make Wayland work with nvidia?
I mean, look. Using an nvidia card with Linux, and getting the requisite drivers working, can be am experience akin to having your has deferens ripped out by an aging badger. I get it. But until I can nvidia while I Wayland I just don't care. And I'm not alone.
- these days I keep hearing people say that nv wayland it fine every time amd vs nv for linux comes up. Is manjaro more behind arch repos than I thought? or does it also not work on arch and other distros are doing something different?
  
  It's fine with the beta driver, so still not fine by default.
- As much as I love Manjaro, same issue here. Wayland just blackscreens on an Nvidia card, and that's a 1060, mind you, not something bleeding edge.

Most people don't care. And that says someone who replaced his Windows XP when Vista was the newest shit on the market (I also had a Vista laptop back then). With every Windows version people argued and posted about The Year of Linux Desktop. If you are talking about number of users, then Linux on Desktop will not dethrone Windows in 2024. Most people don't care or the switch is painful in many ways. Don't get your hopes too high. My following argumentation is critical, but I am a Linux fanboy. Have that in mind.
KDE/Gnome reaching stability and usability
What exactly do you mean by that? KDE and Gnome reached usability long time ago. However thanks to Wayland the stability got a huge hit, plus KDE was always a bit wonky in regard that. But otherwise these are great desktops with good usability for a long time now. Way better than what Apple or Windows has to offer.
Windows 10 coming to EOL
This has never mattered. Most people just switch or buy next Windows version.
.Net cross platform (in VSCode or Jetbrains Rider)
This is not new in 2024, or did something happen here?
Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
Better than what? Than the previous version? This is always the case and people don't switch from Windows to Linux because of that. After all, the application is available on Windows too.
... will be ... before end of 2024 ...
Will be remain to be seen if this is true. If there is one thing I learned is, don't trust estimation when software will be finished.
NTSync coming in Kernel 6.11 for better Wine/Proton game performance and porting.
This has no impact on Proton, but Wine as far as I understand. Proton already has an alternative that is similar to NTSync. So from performance standpoint, it has no impact on Steam games.
- Windows 10 coming to EOL
  This has never mattered. Most people just switch or buy next Windows version.
  Or keep on using Windows 10 and are happy not to be annoyed by updates any more.

As a new Linux, the hardest time that i have had with it, has been with my hard discs, and having software recognize them or save data on them. Its been a mess to find them on different file explorers and file pickers. I know that longtime users will explain the logic to it, but it is not intuitive. Also understanding root drive, root access and root user. Still not 100% sure i understand it. Things need to get simpler and more self explanatory for Linux to replace windows.
- I’m a Linux dinosaur user since mid 00’s and I confirm that despite huge efforts to make it as seamless as possible, it still sucks today. The problem is that you even have different file pickers (that’s what xdg-desktop-portal tries to mitigate but some applications will do it the traditional way by including toolkit library and filepicker from it, or they will even implement their own), there’s a great freedom to how drives can be mounted and multiple systems to manage drive mounts. It’s managed by gvfs or kio or something else, the behavior is a little differently every time. There are attempts to handle all automatic mounts in /run/media and while most distros conform to that, some won’t.
  What I would recommend is to
  create your own mountpoints for your internal drives that you don’t expect to change too frequently. It’s done in /etc/fstab. If you’re on KDE, the Partition Manager app can help with setting mount points.
  your primary desktop file manager (like Dolphin, Nautilus or Caja) probably has option to copy absolute file paths. Sometimes copying them is easier
  If you see GNOME’s file picker, the path is hidden unless you know magical combination of CTRL+L that shows and allows to edit the path
  
  Good tips thank you!
  The major difference for me was that drives are shown in the mnt folder
  This is not intuitive but like much other, makes sense once you know it

Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
Not on the MS side for sure, they've always made sure they don't follow their own spec so they can more easily vendor-lock. Typical EEE from the company that coined it.
Windows 10 coming to EOL
That, per se, no, both XP and 7 kept existing for years, but 11 around the corner with ads and recall... that may steer some people away. Edit: as will inflated minimum system requirements at every release.
Web-native apps (Including Msft Office and Adobe)
Those are OS-agnostic and a way to keep using MS apps. Office is one of the hardest to let go (because of aforementioned reasons), especially in a corporate environment - which, most likely, is the bulk of MS customers in terms of revenue.
.Net cross platform (in VSCode or Jetbrains Rider)
Until they change something. EEE, remember?

Office and Adobe Web native apps? What sources do you have?
- Adobe Web Apps
  Office 365
  But there's also the Google Office Suite as another online office suite in addition to Office 365
  
  ~~You know that's not what "native" means, right?~~ Nevermind, me moron can not read.

I think if I could get xbox game pass running on Linux, I'd be there
- Same, Persona 3 Reload costs the equivalent of 10 months of gamepass in Brazil, it's really important for full priced games.
- I think if I could get everything I run actually running on there without issues I'd be there. Still pondering the steam deck. Haven't bought it. Will buy it when I can actually do what their slogan says about having my whole library with me anywhere I go.

Yeah, no, I'm sure it's about to go from less than 10% market share to over 50% in one year. 🙃

Full of optimism. But why those points that relate not in the slightest to the layman? Also sources for half of your points?

I've noticed a LOT of pushback against the ads in MS shit. Microsoft has become greedy (well what am I saying, they've always been, kist really effin more greedy now) and somehow seems to invest even less in development. All Microsoft apps I see today are just painfully painfully bad. Again, not that they've ever been particularly good at anything besides keyboards, but lately it's been comically worse.
I've seen Linux desktop grow significantly now, and I really do see it happen that Linux crosses that threshold where there is just no more stopping it

people can't handle installing windows, they won't try anything else en masse either
- They might just stop using computers
  
  That is indeed more likely than them switching to Linux.
  Us computer nerds don't understand that because we live our lives surrounded by computers, but there are plenty of households that don't even have a computer, let alone one they want to switch to a niche OS.
  
  Back to the 80s/early 90s where the only people using computers were the ones that actually knew how to use computers? Hell yes, take me back.
- They can't handle the Linux!

Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
Was there any recent relevant developments in this area?
- Skimming though the LibreOffice 24.2 release notes, this was the first thing I've encountered:
  New line break algorithm for interoperability
  Since 2013, the non-proprietary, metric-compatible alternative fonts are no longer guaranteed the same paragraph layout, because MS Word 2013 and later introduced a new default line breaking algorithm for justified text. To fix the lost interoperability, the same algorithm has been implemented in Writer to reduce spaces within justified lines by up to 20%. tdf#119908 blog post (László Németh, donor: NLnet).
  And in 24.8:
  Fixed an issue with shape positioning in DOCX import for RTL paragraphs (Miklos Vajna, Collabora) tdf#160833
  As it is nice opening a document and having the line breaks and figures at the intended places, it can be concluded that there is noticeably development going on for compatibility between LO Writer and MS Word.

New line break algorithm for interoperability