Bulletins and News Discussion from March 18th to March 24th, 2024 - Ra Ra Rasputin - COTW: Russia
Bulletins and News Discussion from March 18th to March 24th, 2024 - Ra Ra Rasputin - COTW: Russia
Image is of President Vladimir Putin, with his cook Prigozhin, though he is more famous for other things.
I'm assuming we all know what a "Russia" and a "Putin" is, so I'm skipping the background section.
On March 15th, Putin handily won the presidential election. This is perhaps one of the least surprising things to happen in the last couple years, and all claims and debates about electoral corruption are missing the point (in this particular election at least). The reason why Putin won is not fascist brainwashing or Putin having a high Persuasion/Intimidation DC, and it's not even really about the laws that make opposing the Ukraine War illegal. Wages are up significantly, unemployment is at record lows (for the post-USSR period, of course), as is poverty, and the ruble is about as stable as it could be given what the West has tried to do to it. The government has been forced to massively intervene in the economy to keep things afloat, buying up properties that have been ditched by foreign and domestic billionaires, though obviously Russia's wealthy are still plenty powerful. Inflation is up, but wages are comfortably outpacing it. And the Communist Party remains a relic of a bygone era, disconnected from the young people who might hypothetically propel a revolution.
Russia is still in the transition from switching to a Western-oriented export economy to an Eastern-oriented one. Nonetheless, Russia is now China's single largest oil supplier (unseating Saudi Arabia), delivering half of all their oil to China, and trade between the two countries has massively increased. Where Western brands have retreated from Russia (and not many actually have), more Russia-friendly corporations, and Russian businesses themselves, have filled the gaps.
By going through the news, I've seen a lot of economies that are not doing well at all. Most countries seem to be in that category. Either they have general growth but a deeply struggling populace, or the government is trying to keep the population afloat but running up huge debts in the process, or the government is failing on both counts. Russia is one of the few countries on the planet that I can confidently state is actually doing quite well objectively, which means it's doing extremely well relatively. Considering the Western economists regularly delivering portents of doom in early 2022, and salivating over how they were going to divide the country following the inevitable economic collapse, this is a hilarious state of affairs.
In the long term, their predictions may come true. It is entirely possible that a post-war Russia will slump, returning to neoliberal policies and continuing their nonsensical allergy to budget deficits. Russia might not be a mere gas station, but a substantial amount of the economy is made up of fossil fuel exports, which might be troublesome in a greener future, especially as China, their main oil market, is one of the few countries on the planet that seems serious about renewable/nuclear energy. And the limited labour force means that long-term growth is inherently limited without some creative measures, even with the potential influx of whatever remains of the population and territory that Russia seizes in Ukraine. Perhaps it is in this crucible of disillusionment and hardship, after seeing that good things are indeed possible if the government wishes them to be so, that a socialist Russia could rise again. But we aren't there yet, and the growth continues for now.
Apologies for the lack of updates (again!), I've been going through book titles again for the reading list (I've probably got a thousand or more to get through) and also trying to touch grass more. I'm not very good at balancing things out, I tend to do the hyperfocus-on-one-thing-until-it's-done approach.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Russia! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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Not sure if anyone should put too much faith into this but I randomly decide to look at this well known Ukrainian rumor/leak telegram and they are running this story This is a leak of the new so called Instanbul-2 deal. This could literaly be what someone wrote in a google doc but then again it would be completely normal for this to be leaked on some western MSM 18 months from now as if it is some big story.
Anyway, the surprising thing is this is definitely not something supported by the pro-Russian side but if this was truly made by a third "neutral" party to save face then maybe it makes sense. I have no clue whether this document looks even remotely legitimate but I guess its worth noticing in case it appears elsewhere.
TL
Ajend Istanbul-2 Our source from Zelensky’s circle shared information about the Turkish peace initiative within the framework of negotiations on strategic stability between the United States and Russia with the participation of Ukraine, which Erdogan has been promoting since the end of last year. On March 8, Erdogan announced Turkey’s readiness to organize and hold a peace summit with Russia’s participation. According to Erdogan’s proposals, the conditions for peace and security guarantees for Ukraine could be: - an immediate cessation of hostilities; - Ukraine receiving from the United States and the Russian Federation joint guarantees of security and territorial integrity within the actual borders at the time of the ceasefire; - Ukraine’s commitment to be a non-aligned, neutral, demilitarized and non-aligned state until 2040; - the obligation of the Russian Federation to hold in 2040 (no later than 6 months from the date of the national referendum on the geopolitical position of Ukraine after 2040) new referendums on “territorial affiliation” in the Russian-controlled territories of Ukraine; - exchange no later than one month according to the “all for all” formula of prisoners of war, other detainees and the bodies of dead soldiers; - The USA, Russia and Turkey support Ukraine’s desire to join the European Union. According to the source, the proposal of Istanbul-2 was rejected by the Ukrainian side.
TL
Colleagues, we would like to talk in more detail about the essence of the agreements between the United States and Russia on strategic stability in the initiative proposed by Erdogan to achieve peace in Ukraine within the framework of such negotiations. Our sources in the Office of the President kindly shared the draft joint statement between the United States, Ukraine, Russia and Turkey. The United States, Russia (and Ukraine), through the mediation of Turkey: - restore bilateral consultations on issues of strategic and global importance for the whole world, including control over strategic and nuclear arms; - exclude in their practice the use or threat of use of weapons of mass destruction, interference in the internal affairs of other states; - will resume the START Treaty in full before its expiration and, during this period, will hold negotiations with other states possessing nuclear weapons in order to conclude a new “expanded” START Treaty (the goal is to drag England, France and China into the treaty); - no later than the end of 2024, they will jointly develop and submit for consideration an agreed draft of the UN Convention on the responsibility of states, officials and citizens for interference in the internal affairs of other states; - no later than the end of 2024, they will submit for consideration an agreed draft of the UN Convention on Poverty Reduction and the Prevention of Mass Migration; - no later than the end of 2024, they will jointly develop and submit for consideration an agreed draft of the UN Convention on improving the activities of the Global Environment Facility.
Therefore, colleagues, you are right, Biden and his team, already fully in the election campaign, rejected this initiative of Erdogan, not wanting to question their role as a world hegemon, thereby giving a pass to Trump.
supposed document
Ukrainian neutrality but only until 2040? It wouldn't make any sense for Russia to accept that, especially when they're doing well. American tanks are going to be rolling into Ukraine to threaten Russia on January 1st 2040 if that happens.
At the other end of the table you have the delusional Kiev regime who won't accept any peace agreement that doesn't give them all of the new oblasts plus Crimea plus a pony for everyone.
There's a long way to go before actual negotiations can begin.
I don't think it would be wise for Russia to make extremely long term deals(over 50 years) simply because unless I'm mistaken Ukrainian neutrality towards NATO also means neutrality against NATO i.e any regime change or general realignment of Ukraine towards another alliance or even silly another unified/allied projected with Russia is definitely on the cards.
Thinking on that long term this war is fucking the entire current young generation of Ukrainians, when they get older it is quite possible for the country to take a heavy turn against the west.
Basicaly I think it is actualy useful for all sides to keep bringing this up in the future. Even for Russia I'm sure in 2040 they'd say "hey you better remain neutral unless you're ready for round 2". Instead of having a permanent deal that is slowly chipped down through the decades as it fades into irrelevance? You can say the same thing about Russian internal politics too I'm sure the cynical take is turning Ukraine/NATO into a permanent reoccurring issue is certainly a path, specialy for those worried about the post-Putin era.
I don't necessarily buy these theories at all but it seems reasonable if I try to make a case here.
this is definitely not something supported by the pro-Russian side
Do you mean not supported by Russia or not supported by Z posters? The terms related to ukraine here are basically the same as what was floating around in March 2022, except for Russia keeping way more territory. Demilitarization, neutrality, ukraine into EU, security guarantees for ukraine from us and Russia all comprise the major points from the purported 2022 peace deal. This seems like Russia as in the Russian state getting what it wants. I can see how pro Russia posters want ukraine to get entirely leveled, but I doubt that is in the cards.
The commentary coming from the Russian side these days is pretty much regime change is necessary.
This is one recent post about it by John Helmer. Is he relevant? Well he gets reposted on naked capitalism sometimes and Mercouris mentioned him once or twice I think.
This narrative is increasingly common I think. He was talking about the DMZ concept too.
Threats to reinforce these new fortified lines with a French-led “coalition” have come from President Emmanuel Macron. In parallel, detailed planning by the German Luftwaffe, backed by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, of long-range Taurus missile attacks, launched from aircraft based outside the Ukraine, has become public knowledge. In response, a well-informed Moscow source believes the parameters of Russian strategy are becoming clearer “now that Putin is waving the green flag. It’s clear, for example, that although there will not be battles inside cities like Odessa, Kharkov, and Kiev, there cannot be a military outcome for the General Staff and the Kremlin which will allow terrorism against Russia forever from inside those cities, or from whatever remains of the Ukraine. So there must be regime change in Kiev– and a form of Russian occupation that will be surprising.”
“I am not ready to talk about what, how, and when,” Putin said on Sunday. Likewise, no Russian military source is ready. There is, however, frustration at the delay in the operational decision-making. “It’s not General Patience we’re talking about,” comments a military observer. “It’s General Bullshit. Let’s see if [Chief of the General Staff General Valery] Gerasimov calls it.”
It's a little weird that points 1-6 are primarily for the US and Russia and then at the end they guess they'll talk about Ukraine. If this is true I'd want to consider this as what the US and Russia are willing to pretend they will concede to the other.
I would expect this to be the starting point for any real negotiations that happen after whatever triggers the legitimate start of negotiations. I would think there would be more granular detail about Ukraine being demilitarized and having responsibilities to protect minority rights.
Militarily, if the treaty is valid to 2040 then Ukraine will only have the young people who have been born shortly before and after the war. There is no ability for them to have any national strength to fight Russia at that point based on demographics. Also, it's reasonable to assume that the relative power of the imperialists has declined by that point as well. We already see the US losing strength in a lot of ways but we can't know how strong they'll be in 2040.
Again, that all assumes this document is real.
Russia... support Ukraine’s desire to join the European Union
lmao never going to happen.
Russia doesn't care if Ukraine joins the EU. They care if they join NATO.
If the EU for some reason does let in Ukraine it will be an anchor around their neck. They have to redirect all their funds and subsidies just to stabilizing the bleeding corpse of Ukraine for little benefit to them, and now Banderites have Schengen mobility to fuck up the continent. I can't see a scenario where Ukraine gets EU membership where 80% of the population doesn't immediately leave and immigrate West. At the end of this the population of Ukraine will be like 5 million probably.
Joining the EU = aligning itself further with NATO. Remember the 2014 coup was about Yanukovych not wanting to align Ukraine with Europe over Russia.
Ukraine is already 100% "aligned" with NATO. It will not be allowed to join NATO though, as that means world war.
Who gives a fuck about the EU, it's a doomed project
It’s aligned with NATO now as the war goes on, but part of ending the war will have to be Ukrainian neutrality. Ukraine can’t be neutral and part of the EU.
neutrality is a military issue. They can easily be a de-militarized rump that gets added to the EU and made their problem. Russia has no issue with that. Crimea, Donbas and probably more regions are staying with Russia though. EU and Poland can get the scraps
Neutrality is military, economic, and political, each one affecting the others. Ukraine not being economically and politically neutral threatens to also drift them from military neutrality over time.
It’s no coincidence that almost every EU member is also a member of NATO. The few that aren’t either have no real military threats outside of NATO (Ireland, Austria, and Malta) or have an ongoing border dispute with a proxy state of a NATO member, making them ineligible and otherwise unlikely to be accepted (Cyprus).
Edit: and the EU apparently has its own “common defense policy”. So joining the EU would directly align them militarily, even though not through NATO.
Okay bud.
Yeah, I do agree. The EU commitment to defense is stronger than article 5 it is often said.
Besides, we know what side Sweden and Finland were on long before they joined NATO. Russia saying they don't have a problem with Ukraine joining the EU is imo something they say to attempt to drive a wedge between the EU and US.
After all, Russia's concern over the differences in tariffs between them and the EU and them and Ukraine was an important driving factor for this conflict.
Besides, everybody, including the Russians, knows Ukraine was never even close to joining NATO.
NATO is a military alliance the EU is an economic one. There are big distinctions here, mostly legal ones but Russia pretty much doesn’t care about eu membership.
Russia never had an issue with Ukraine joining the EU. The EU had issues with existing free trade deals with Russia because Ukraine would be able to dump Russian products into the EU. So EU membership would only come after Ukraine broke up with Russia which would hurt Ukraine more than EU membership would have helped. All those concerns have become moot.
This was in the Mar 2022 potential deal as well - ukraine was to be militarily neutral but was welcome to pursue EU membership
Completely reasonable thing for Russia to do. Turkey has been a candidate member or something for about two decades now. The remaining Balkan countries can't even get to the same status as Turkey. Russia doesn't have to do anything since they know EU membership is never going to happen for Ukraine.
Ukraine would probably get fast tracked if Russia allowed it. The EU cares more about Ukraine than their own people.
Also all of the Baltics except Kosovo seem to be further along than Turkey.