Trump is winning big with his base, but there’s no sign that he's broadening support
Trump is winning big with his base, but there’s no sign that he's broadening support
Donald Trump appears close to invincible in the early Republican primaries and caucuses, but his strength among general election voters remains unclear.
He doesn't have to broaden support to win. Biden just has to lose support.
In 2020, Biden won 81,283,501 to 74,223,975.
But the popular vote doesn't count.
What put him over the top were:
Georgia - 2,473,633 to 2,461,854 = 11,779 votes. Pennsylvania - 3,459,923 to 3,378,263 = 81,660
Michigan - 2,804,040 to 2,649,852 = 154,188 Wisconsin - 1,630,866 to 1,610,184 = 20,682
Arizona - 1,672,143 to 1,661,686 = 10,457Biden didn't win by 7,059,526 votes. All those extra votes in places like California and New York didn't count.
He won by 278,766 votes in 5 key states. That's it.
Now, since we aren't pushing hard on vote by mail this year, how many voters do you think will disengage and not vote?
Considering current polling, his current level of support is terrifyingly close to enough. If we don't want to face down four more years of Trump, Biden really needs a lot better campaigning than, "I'm not that guy." Sure, it's still early and the predictive power of polls at this stage isn't fantastic. But, it seems like a bad place to be starting from.
We already hit the point decades ago where GOP can't win a federal election without anti democratic institutions like gerrymandering and the electoral college. It needs to be replaced with something actually functional in leading government in policy supporting constituents to compete with DNC. I detest political parties, but the only thing worse than many parties is one party.
We're in an era of populism and people are still trying to use the 2000s era to predict today.
He doesn't need to wide. his base, he just needs to motivate them. He need to to get more people excited about voting for him than Biden does those excited to vote Biden.
It's about turnout and driving a base. He's wiping the floor with Biden right now in the polls. No one is excited to vote Biden. It's not clear to me he even has a base. Instead taking heads are just trying to browbeat any one left of center into supporting Biden. It won't work at scale. Bidens got to do his own work there, because it's not currently Trump in office, it's Biden. Always harder for an incumbent, especially one who has become deeply unpopular with the coalition of voters that out him into office. No amount of blue no matter who is going to fix Biden as a candidate. Only Biden can do that.
Dubious methodology says trump in trouble -> upvote
Dubious methodology says Biden in trouble -> downvote to oblivion.
He needs them to grift. They buy everything he shit out, his nfts, his shoes, his go-fund-me, campaign donations. They fund him.
It also highlights a Republican party that has made an about-face on central policy issues, favoring some big government programs and retreating from commitments abroad.
That's a strange take on history. Of course many Republican politicains have said "focus on the homeland" or whatever while voting for wars, so the stated positions aren't really changing, and I don't imagine that Trump would be anti-war anyway. And big government is also a Republican thing. I can point to specific examples, but we all know about them, so why bother?
Anyway, it's hard for politics writers, no doubt, but this is basic historical knowledge. They can do better.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump appears close to invincible in the Republican primaries and caucuses, but despite his commanding victories, the front-runner’s strength among general election voters remains unclear.
It also highlights a Republican party that has made an about-face on central policy issues, favoring some big government programs and retreating from commitments abroad.
So far, almost all of Trump’s backing has come from white voters, who made up the vast majority of the electorate in the first few head-to-head Republican contests — even in diverse South Carolina.
Trump also maintained high levels of support with evangelical Christians and people living in small towns and rural areas, groups that have significant weight within Republican primaries but comprise a smaller share of the general electorate.
Instead, Republican primary voters strongly support domestic policies that require significant government investment, like maintaining the current age of 67 for Social Security eligibility and building a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico.
In the lead-up to the primaries, Republican candidates clashed over these issues, testing whether long-held GOP positions like shrinking the size of entitlement programs and taking a strong hand in foreign conflicts still resonate with the party’s base.
The original article contains 960 words, the summary contains 196 words. Saved 80%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
Well sure, the conservative movement has been pretty clear by this point they're not interested in a democratic mandate for governance, meaning a broad base of support is optional. Please process what this means a tiny bit faster, liberals.
Am I seeing things in that picture or is Trump raising a clenched fist a la Huey Newton and the Black Power movement? Boy is his base gonna have a hell of a stroke,
Meanwhile Biden is losing support, so it doesn't matter if trump just stays the same.
Biden only has 4% on Biden in the 18-34 demo, which is a lot more about Biden's inaction than trump.
https://www.axios.com/2024/02/26/biden-trump-gen-z-millennial-poll
The danger has never been trump gaining voters, it's that Biden is so shit and ignoring the majority of Dem voters that it might depress turnout so much Trump's base could be enough like it was in 2016.