4w ago

The Kremlin Still Believes That Manpower, Missiles, and a War of Attrition Will Break Ukraine and Exhaust the West

sfg.media

Why Putin Keeps the War Going

5 comments

I know I have been beating this drum lately, but there is a massive Bohdana sized hole in this article
Both sides face shortages of ammunition and equipment, but Ukraine’s most critical vulnerability is air defense. Russia, for its part, appears to have lost the ability to conduct maneuver warfare and has shifted to infantry assaults by small units—despite incurring heavy casualties.
Yeah that is what happens when the enemy starts to kick your ass with 155mm on call accurate artillery every time you try to start something organized and cheeky.
Why is this so hard for people to understand, the reason Ukraine is able to breakthrough so much more lately is precisely because they have begun to field Bohdanas in increasing numbers and that completely changes how bold Russian forces can be in trying to close down a breakthrough in their front lines.
You have to think about it this way, you are a Russian in a foxhole you have been in for the last 2 months, people have been shooting at you off and on, along with periodic FPV drone attacks, but Ukranian forces haven't been able to bring enough concentrated firepower to bare on your position to dislodge you and your fellow soldiers.
Suddenly you get radio'd that there has been a fairly significant breakthrough 4km to the east along a weak part of the Russian frontlines. It is isn't a significant distance to temporarily abandon the position and rush to fight but realize that before consistent fielding of the Bohdana by Ukranian forces you just had to make sure not to be spotted by Ukranian scouts, patrols or fpv drones on your way to meeting up with Russian forces working to enclose the breakthrough from the other side, (knowing you would be backed up by overwhelming force once Russian forces made solid contact with the Ukranian assault forces.) now you have to wonder if you are already being watched by a spotter drone and as soon as you and your fellow troops leave your trench and venture into open ground, 155mm artillery will rain down with no warning obliterating everything before you can even react... or not?
The question hangs over the battlefield.
- Also Japan
  https://wesodonnell.medium.com/how-a-secret-japanese-satellite-deal-just-supercharged-ukraines-war-intel-54cf3b6ffa45
The Kremlin has to believe that they have nothing else. Well maybe that and some North Koreans in a burlap sack.
The spirit of the American revolution is alive and well in the soldiers of Ukraine even if it's on life support in the states.
The headline is untrue. That's just propaganda for the Russian people. The truth comes a bit down the article:
The war in Ukraine has become existential for the Kremlin.
Problem for Putin is he can't admit defeat, because it will probably mean the end for him.
There is no way the Russian administration can still think they can wear Europe down.
They thought so initially with the gas, limiting supplies to show Europe the consequences of helping Ukraine.
Now it's pretty obvious that Russia was depending way more on European money than we were dependent on Russian gas.
The cost for Europe aiding Ukraine is peanuts compared to the resources we are allocating to build stronger military force in Europe now.
Russia is practically broke already, and the government is essentially cannibalizing everything they can. so they have very few resources to build their economy, and no good options to borrow. Every major branch of the Russian economy is running at deficits. The government, banks/finance, the entire energy sector, Weapons industry. Agricultural production is failing, and industries in general are wearing down, because they can't afford to invest, because profits are low and interests are high. The government can't afford to maintain infrastructure, so literally almost everything is being worn down now because of the war.
There will also be very little help from outside. So the Russian economy will suck for a really long time after the war, and it will probably take more than 2 decades just to get back to where they were before the war. And EU has decided to continue boycotts even after the war.
There is no way the Russian administration and Putin don't know these things, and they also know that the countries that support Ukraine have nowhere near similar problems, and Ukraine too is doing way better than Russia. With lower inflation and interest rates, better government finances, and industries that actually make money.
Russians have only recently begun to feel the effect of the war on their dinner tables, but the harvest this year is predicted to be way below average for many reasons like using lower quality seeds, worker shortages, and poorly functioning infrastructure.
So Russians can look forward to wildly increased food prices, in part due to inflation, and in part due to failing harvest.
Russians are said to have high capacity for suffering, and they are going to need that.
So really? How likely is it that Russia truly still is on a "break Ukraine and exhaust the west strategy"?
Isn't it more likely just propaganda? And the administration just doesn't know what else to do to survive a little longer.
Yup. Any time now. For sure. /s
If what Zelensky has said is right they're actually pretty close to not being able to convince themselves, either.