AfD is the most popular party in Germany for the first time, with a record 26%

As a crimson lining, I hope the United State's decay will teach Germany to destroy the AfD and all other right wingers. They are a poison to civilization.
- Hopefully yes. But not very likely as the cdU/csU are getting more and more open to cooperate with the afd. I'm afraid we are in the last legaslative term without an afd-ridden coalition.

Germans literally have so many choices of political parties that they can actually elect, why do they have to go for the worst one AfD?
- I want to give oen example of how people on the fence can up on the wrong side, radicalized if you will. For the record I’m as far left as I can get. I support a lof of humanitarian causes and respect the decisions of others, particularly in sexuality or individual personal definitions. Be what you want, do what you want, be good, be fair. It’s easier than being rotten.
  I’m only a resident of Germany, so every two years I need to renew my residency card, the Awshfksoyngelelemdn, or whatever that alphabet soup is called. I began the process 3 months before I was set to expire (Nov 2024). Surely, that would be enough time to get shit done at a rathaus that refuses to do any of this online. Oof, so wrong. JULY was the first appointment they would give me. My residency expired in April. No problem, they said. I can still live here since I made the appointment, just don’t leave Germany. I must leave Germany as that’s my job and why they moved me here from the US years back.
  I begged to understand why the wait times are so long and the answer I got, from the rathaus, was that refugees from Syria and Palestine have been given the opportunity to migrate to my town and their processing is a priority. The only way I can get around that, to get an earlier appointment, would be to stand in the line when they open at 7:30am-12:00pm, M-F. I went there at 7am and the line wrapped around the block. I asked the person in the front of the line what time they got there. 4am.
  I came back another day, at 4am, and got shit done, but that’s a huge brick in the wall for people already pissed they have to share with the lesser fortunate. I sucked it up. I get what they’re doing. But when Germans see just how poorly this is all being managed, they start listening to the assholes that promise to fix that… at all costs.
  It’s a fkn drag. I had much higher hopes for Germany when I moved here, but now I’m left wondering what my next move is going to be. I refuse to be ruled by racist idiots. It’s a big reason behind why I happily left the US. Only hope will be that everyone sees the US administration tripping over their own dicks and come to their senses, but I’ve really lost faith after the 2024 election cycle.
  
  It's really tiring how all-or-nothing political parties like to be. Your choices are: · Help everyone, thus straining our resources thin and barely helping anyone · Fucking kill anyone who so much looks at us
  I personally think "help yourself first so you can help others better". How are you expected to take care of humanitarian issues when your own country is unraveled? You're having your own humanitarian issue!
- It's mostly East Germany. Communism's fuckups in that area are still causing suffering today. I suppose West can be blamed for failing to integrate the east properly.
  
  Unfortunately, that's not the only reason. We have 16 Bundesländer (states). 5 of them are in the East. But they have hardly more inhabitants than Bavaria. So a lot of us in the "Real Germany" (the western states) are voting those AHs too.
  
  Put looting the east via Treuhand on that list...
- its a few factors in play, one is the normalization of far-right policies by the other big parties (SPD, Greens, Union) and their inability to fix the damage caused by the financial crisis of 2008, the rise of anti-migrant beliefs in the german working class, and a few others
  i think this video explains well the rise of the AfD in germany, at this point its only a matter of time until one or more parties decide to make a coalition with the AfD
  
  nd their inability to fix the damage caused by the financial crisis of 2008
  That's absolutely not it. Germany went through the crisis of 2008 like a breeze. In 2015 during the refugee crisis, Merkel decided to open our borders to all of the refugees. Before that, the AfD had below 10% of the voters on their side. But a huge chunk of the population did not agree to Merkel's refugee policies. That's when the AfD took off. And now we can't get rif of them 😒

☹️

Both the US and Germany want to return to their fascist roots it seems
Decades of capitalist decay and anti-communist propaganda will do that.
- Don’t forget about Russia. It is already there and leading in its effort to turn some countries into the same political system, making thereby these countries tries their puppets aka satellites.
- Mass immigration into a housing shortage in order to push down wages, artificially invert the Phillips curve, and prop up housing prices will as well. I assume rising support for the afd is mostly the young.
  https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/housing-index
  https://recruitonomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/DE3-Net-migration-1024x565.png
- The see the US and realize it's possible to do it all over again.

No surprise considering CDU/CSU fucking up shit for the broad population from day one. They even suggested a 1000€ deductible for the health insurance.
- Shit, in the US a $1000 deductible is what you get with pretty good insurance. My employer has a few plans and only one has a deductible below $1000.
  Not to say that's good. Just pointing out that the US has succumbed to capitalism.
  
  That isn't pretty good insurance.
  It's what most employees will settle for.
  
  Shit, in the US a $1000 deductible is what you get with pretty good insurance
  US is not my standard when it comes to healthcare.
  Everyone in germany pays 14% of his income as health insurance, you do not have a choice (except for a few people), there is a MASSIVE amount of money in the system. It's just wasted left and right, so introducing a deductible is just the dumbest thing ever.
  
  pretty good usually mean somewhat expensive too.

Just looking at the people around me (mostly colleagues, I'm not friends with this kind of people) it's no surprise, when just about anything triggers them to vote AfD. Some actual examples:
"We have a vegetarian day at the cafeteria now. Stupid Greens forcing me to not eat meat one day a week. I'm going to vote AfD next election."
"They built a new bicycle lane on my way to work. Now I'm forced to stick to the speed limit because of all the bicyclists on MY road blocking me. It's a straight street, I should be able to go 80 even though it's inner city. I've always been going 80 there! Stupid Greens, I'm going to vote AfD next election."
"Supplier X stopped issuing their bikini model calendar. Everything is forbidden nowadays! Noone ever cared for bikini model calenders, but the Greens want to forbid every little piece of fun. Stupid woke culture. I'm going to vote AfD."
And let's not forget that one boss who told me that my life-threatening nut allergy was woke nonsense, because back in his day "everybody just ate what's on the table and noone died, but nowadays everybody has to feel special by making up things they won't eat."
They just want to go back to 1950s culture, when gay people, trans people, allergies, ADHD, autism, veganism, climate change and anything other than straight white dudes and straight white housewives "didn't exist", because how dare the world be more complex than a Rosamunde Pilcher movie.
- The German mindset to capitulate in the face of challenges that cant be solved by doing how things where allways done (since kohl).
  By god, nobody wants things like wealth and inheritance taxes to be done like way back when (when they existed).
  Ok, unfair the majority of Germans wants them, but this great democracy continuously produces Governments for and by the 1% irrespective of your vote.
- “When you’re accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression.” – Franklin Leonard
- They want to return to 1950s, but they will return to 1930s. And not only in Germany. Stupid people have no clue what dictators always do.
  
  Specifically, 1939.
- I'm genuinely sorry your boss said that to you, but it sounds so fucking ridiculous I laughed. Jesus. Imagine being so stupid that someone might die.
  
  You know what the worst thing is? He wasn't the only one by far. Later at a different company another Teamleader told me I have to go out to eat with everybody. When I said the restaurant isn't save for me (lots of nuts on the menu), he just said I HAVE to come and that's what the Epipen is there for. I complained to HR and the HR lady asked why I don't just do a therapy against allergies. Told me about some esoteric bullshit that's supposed to cure all allergies and advised me to do that so I can better fit in with the company culture.
  
  Well, to bring some darker thoughts to the topic: Most fascist movements are also very, very inclined on their interpretation of darwinism, so... "weak" people dying off may for them be more a feature than a bug
  
  Also highlights we don’t live in a meritocracy if this clown is in charge of others.
- You guys gotta be more like America on the bike lanes one.
  Just have crippling, insane traffic, where it takes you three hours to move five (5) city blocks (this has actually happened to me).
  Suddenly, a new bike lane gets you across the city in 26 minutes.
  It made the bike lanes very popular, haha.
  
  As an American, I don't think people will support bike lanes even then

Why hasn't the German government shut them down? I thought they had anti-fascist laws on their books.
- There are multiple factors at play.
  The government is incompetent and the Nazis are playing them like a fiddle by setting the public agenda aided by incompetent and complicit media. (That the Nazis' economic agenda, more money for the rich, isn't all that differnet from that of the established parties helps with this, because this renders them unable of countering the Nazis' lies about foreigners being to blame for the economic hardships of the masses without harming themselves)
  The government consists of greedy, power hungry bastards who think they can use the Nazis to their advantage. (Some lie to themselves that they can steal votes from them by parroting their rhetoric, some use the spectre of cooperating with the Nazis to pressure other parties into cooperation with them instead)
  The government consists of opportunistic cowards who are afraid of angering the Nazi voters and/or losing the court case for a ban of the Nazi party.

It's similar in the UK currently. The UK's equivalent of AfD is Reform UK who are apparently the leading party in the polls (source):
Reform UK in front on 25%, Labour on 23% and the Conservatives on 20%, with the Lib Dems on 16% and Greens on 10%
- The next UK election must be held in about four years. The only elections this year will be by-elections (notorious for elevating micro-parties due to protest votes) and local government elections (where Reform has done poorly, since they don't really have more than a handful of candidates who aren't local cranks and Nazis). Where I live, the local-government protest votes has swung seats from Labour to the Greens, and to a lesser extent, the LibDems; the right hasn't had much success.
  It should also be noted that the UK press is very rightwing and is constantly promoting Fromage.
  
  True, it's a long time until the next UK general election. Maybe Reform's vote will suffer before then. Alternatively the local elections and by-elections could be a boost for them, I dunno.
  Anyway, maybe we should have proportional representation in the UK. Even if Reform had 25% of the vote and therefore 25% of the seats in parliament, that would mean that 75% of parliamentarians wouldn't be Reform members.
  Our current system allows a party with minority support (potentially Reform in the future) to win a majority of parliamentary seats. In 2019, the Conservatives won 44% of the vote, which gave them 56% of seats. Last year, Labour won 34% of the vote, which gave them 63% of seats.

This is such a U.S. way of reporting things.
74% of people don't want to be part of AfD.
- One out every four people you meet being a literal nazi is tough tho
  
  sadly, it's basically expected that about 15-30% of the population are far-right xenophobes. the question is how well they can be mobilized.
  
  US: what about one out of every two?
- I disagree. The nazis leading the polls is very disturbing.
- It’s not. 74% are also not working on convincing disgruntled voters that AfD is just a shitsandwich and not an alternative that would improve anything. 26% for a single party that didn’t exist for long is huge and just shows how sick Germans are of the usual cdu/csu/spd/green/fdp bullshit.
  The infuriating thing is that AfD voters would probably be better off with dieLinke.
  
  Ive really been trying but every time theres a worse quagmire of information to wade through. "Like literal Trump fans. Jews own everything. Democracy is cool and all but really... sometimes we need other measures." Theres just no way to talk back. Or even interact when in comes to politics.

Well well.. here we go again. I’m ready to give up my life.

I read 50% of the men in Germany died in ww2 ….but yea cool Nazis what could go wrong.? Fuck around and find out I guess
- ...and after the War the allies fell over themselves to get former Nazi ministers reelected. The CDP was funded by the US State Department for decades.
  
  Don't forget NATO being headed up by many Nazi generals.
- Who is going to fight them this time? The US and the UK are heading down the same path with the US far out in the lead and Russia is already an authoritarian state. France and Canada aren't enough to stand up against this wave of naziism.
- And 60 million others.
  
  Yep nothing good ever comes from supporting facists

I mean, why vote CDU if they are doing the same shit as AFD but are not as good at it?
- We don't know how good AFD would be at doing, what they claim. But none of the parties who have been in power over the last 20-30 years have done anything significant to improve the average workers economic status (e.g. make housing affordable, guarantee a reasonable pension, lessen the fear of unemployment, etc.). AFD claims, "if we get rid of the immigrants, everything will be better again" and people are believing it.
  
  I've seen some negative reporting on afd Landesregierung, where we can see them act in power. Unfortunately I can't point to any right now.

Is the proper response: Well shit.
- They don't even need to win elections, everyone was already discussing immigration because of propaganda & news (Messerattacke). They have set the agenda, this now is just more evidence of their success.
  Sad.
- This is why I keep telling people we are fucked by focusing in increasing military power in europe even if it appears and is obviously needed. We are going to put all the power at the hands of insane lunatics ready to wage war and put people in ovens.
  It's happening in all countries in Europe. I think in mine we'll have elections next month or something like that and the extreme right is at 2nd or 3rd position ready to take first or will join hands with another to win. It was so close already last time. No matter how many crimes all their members do and show up in the news every week.
  It's what the people want. Most people everywhere are ok and want homicidal narcissist and sociopathic people in charge of them.
  
  Best of luck to you and your country staying sane-ish a little longer.
- Did you not realize that they performed incredibly well in the elections? Social media is how they will overthrow the last remaining democracies. France, UK and Canada are next. All the young folks are increasingly more conservative and within 2-6 years, it's going to be game over.
  
  We really should stop using the term "conservative" for what the self proclaimed "conservative" parties are doing. Because they don't conserve anything. They do the exact opposite. They exploit and destroy.
  
  Not sure why you're getting downvoted, maybe people just don't like to hear it. You're not wrong.
  To add, these people generally have more kids, and raise them to be conservative. It's depressing. It might take some severe hardship on people to shift left again? Not sure what that is, hopefully not another world War.
  
  No, I didn't. I've been drowning in depression keeping up with what is happening in the US.

And stil the state refuses to ban them, refuses to arrest and sentence their leaders.
It will be Weimar 2.0 with liberals being either too incompetent or too unwilling to stop fascism.
Fascism is not stopped at the podium or in parliament. It is stopped with bullets and bombs. The longer you wait the more bullets and bombs it will take and the more lives it will cost. We need a new, this time thorough, denazification.
- Liberal does not mean leftist outside of the USA. Liberal actually means what is called libertarian in the USA.
  
  I have not called liberals leftist and never would. I'm not on that American brainrot.
  
  in most contexts here ive heard "liberal" used to describe neoliberalism rather then leftism or libertarianism (though I know many conservatives in the US use it as a catch all for the left)
- bullets and bombs
  I think it's enough to just do: arrests of leaders (and banning them from public speaking but for life) + breaking up the party + outlawing the party + banning people who decide to take up the mantle of/act as a declared proxy for the party and attempt to visibly pick up where they left off.
  That last one I learned from my own country''s current situation: in Romania, a crazy far right candidate came out of nowhere (on the wings of illegal undisclosed campaign donations) to win the first round, and as soon as that happened our mainstream far right party's candidate started supporting him. Then they canceled the election because of the undisclosed donations (he literally declared 0 campaign spending!) so now, in the redo of the election, this other guy is basically running as his proxy and will likely try to appoint him PM if he wins.
  
  Ideally arrests and executions will be enough. I think letting fascists live out their lives in prison is too dangerous. Too many political enemies have been released historically after government changes. Hitler himself didn't even have to serve for life and was released early.
- Weimar was a small civil war between soldiers who returned from WW1. That's why both the left and the right had fighters. Where should the fighters who shoot the bullets come from now?
  The fascists came to power because the elite feared that the communists could win. Otherwise, despite massive manipulation, the fascists never got an absolute majority.
  There are many issues that other parties simply ignore. There would be far less voteres for the AfD if the other parties would listen. The AfD started with the demand that the rules about euro stability shouldn't be ignored. That's not a fascist position.
  
  The other parties are not taking up AfDs made up causes because they are made up.
  For example:
  A sack of potatoes falls.
  AfD: Foreigners are causing the sacks to fall! We must gas them! And the jews!
  Other parties: This is so stupid it doesn't even warrant a response.
  General public: but the foreigners!!111!1!!!11 and the potatoes!!1! I am outraged!!!111!!!
- But starting and organizing a violent opposition seem like so much effort. And I really have to finish some shows I've been watching.
- Just so we’re clear - you’re calling for an end to democracy in Germany? You’re asking for the will of the people to be ignored and actually outlawed?
  
  There can be no tolerance against intolerance, it's a paradox.
  
  I am not the one you are asking, but personally, in my honest opinion: An "emergency government", lets say with a 20 year term, removing far right parties, doing the necessary changes to massively reduce our climate impact and prepare for the ineviteable fallout from climate change and doing other reforms wouldn't be THAT bad of an idea...
- Using bullets and bombs would make the rest not better than the fascists, so lets not use them.
  
  Once they take power, the only thing that can stop them is bullets and bombs. And Fascists do have a nasty habit of shooting first, if you let them.
  
  We don't need to be tolerant to the intolerant.
  
  No it wouldn't, it would make you smart enough to speak to the fascists in the only language they understand. Words don't work against fascists because they don't care what words mean. Better to defend yourself now while you still can.
  
  War and violence have existed long before fascism. It's not their invention or monopoly.

AfD is using fascist manipulation using propaganda (always putting immigrants and immigrant attacks in the spotlight) to gain power and discriminate immigrants even more, causing more retaliation which in turn makes people give the AfD even more power.
In a tolerant society we should not be tolerant of such intolerance.
- I'm an American. I really hope the German masses can learn this lesson before it"s too late.
  But you guys need to counter the hateful messaging against immigrants with an equally effective message against the people with power/money, otherwise, fascism is likely to win in the long run against neoliberalism, as we just saw in America after our long-term experiment with neoliberalism, which really kicked off in the 1980s with Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.
  In the 1990s, the American Democrats felt so defeated after having lost big time to Reagan and Bush Sr., so Bill Clinton decided the Democrats cannot "unilatterally disarm" and must start taking corporate money. This acceptance of corporate money led to their idiology becoming the same as Reagan's idiology, and then the Republican party being bith opportunists and contrarians, took advantage of that situation by shifting further and further right (see: the ratchet effect), until they openly became fascists.
  I'm not too familiar with German politics, but if anything I said applies, then heed my warning.
  
  But you guys need to counter the hateful messaging against immigrants with an equally effective message against the people with power/money, otherwise, fascism is likely to win in the long run against neoliberalism [...]
  This is exactly it. However, I am not too optimistic about centrist politicians/media/society coming to that conclusion. We are complacent and scared and would rather keep our heads in the sand and blame minorities instead of addressing the underlying structural issues.

*In an opinion poll
I mean lets not confuse an opinion poll with the truth. These things regularly get things a couple points off. In fact that’s the norm.
- They were quite accurate the last few elections though... Maybe 1% off, but that's it.
- a couple points off
  Yes so they're first or a close second, that's hardly better.
- That's what people have been saying for years and yet the AfD is already the second strongest in the last election...

Plus two percent, a difference of one percent to second place and an error margin of two point five percent. Congrats.
Besides that, I really start to hate these reports. Weekly updates on the Sonntagsfrage are utterly lacking substance, fearmongering (to left leaning people) and reassurance (to AfD voters). Everything we do not need.
- Should the left not be worried?
  
  About a election in 4 years? Not really. At least not yet. This isn‘t news worthy in my opinion because it doesn‘t tell you anything about what the country will look like in 4 years.
  
  Where did I say that? How the fuck do you come up with that being the conclusion of my comment?
- Also, the heads of most of the polling institutes are openly right leaning.
  
  RTL and their head is more than just "right leaning" Remember the call? "We have to do everything in our power to destroy the greens and spd. Help the FDP and our other ally" Springer is such a huge problem. No one would be remorsed if the entire springer empire got sucked up by a black hole

In phone polls 4 years before the next election...
Dont get me wrong, this sucks, but its not what the germans actually voted for.
- But they already performed very well in the last election.
- Still shows you something you can't see by asking your neighbours, colleagues and family. But I agree it doesn't matter in a real way.

Someone explain, are these the Nazis?
- Short answer: yes.
  Long answer: yeeeeeeeeeeeessss.
- they are the neo-Nazis
  
  Fuck
- It is the party all the fascists vote on.
  Should tell you enough.
- Anything from national conservatives to common reactionaries, Völkische and neo-nazis and neo-fascists.

Source: https://dkriesel.com/sonntagsfrage
- David Kriesel is amazing! Didn't know about this. Very useful.
  
  Yes, he's great data scientist. He has more stuff on his webpage, e.g. bias analysis of the different polling institutes, be sure to check it out if you like!
- So CDU is just AfD in disguise...
  
  More like the decline of CDU is directly proportional to rise in AfD. Could be a number of reasons, such as alienating fringe voters on singular issues such as defense or trans, or it could be that CDU officials don't show the same animosity towards far right that they used to have.

Germany should have actually denazified instead of the joke they did. Also should have reunited the two germanys instead of what happened which was basically a west German conquest of east Germany contributing greatly to its impoverershment.
- Honest question, what was wrong with the denazification that was carried out? Did they have any historical example to compare to?
  
  The so called Schreibtisch Nazis werent punished eventhough they were just as part of the holocaust, helping it moving and working, as the once not in an office.
  East germany, did it even worse imo. The soviets recruited not just scientists and some spies. They recruited Gestapo and SS members, helped them shred their past and unpunished recruited them for the SaSi. Also not teaching it "our people did this and we have to make sure it doesnt happen again" but "we were the victims and didnt have anything to do with the nazis"
  And then add a butchered integration. Butchering and slaughtering the rest of wealth from east germany in the 90s. Fertal ground for those types of idiological spreaders that came from the west. And now we see their flower bloom... And ugly smelling brown rotting rotfruit
  
  Think about it like this: What do you do if everyone is at least complicit? While the soviets excluded the old elites from their new regime, the west focused more on reintegrating them. That being said, both sides were willing to turn a blind eye if you where qualified enough and needed for the continued function of society.
  So for example the head of the neurological society was a doctor who experimented on brains of executed prisoners and children. And unfortunately this was the rule, not the exception.
  
  The fact that it didn't happen? That a lot of the very few who got actual sentences (less than those who worked just at Auschwitz)were pardoned before their time was up. That all levels of the post war German government was filled with nazi party members. That it was quickly abandoned even in the limited and performative form it existed it to unite to fight "the communist threat". I don't need a historical example of a successful de radicalization in order to say this one didn't happen and its a myth it did.
  
  Jeah wondering the same, like Germany was already doing a lot more compared to other countries with previous facist governments

Take care of the nazi problem before they take care of you. You already know how that works. Stop allowing them to broadcast nazi propaganda as if it was news.

Everybody in Germany. Please talk to family members that you don't talk to about how this is dangerous to you. I know I have these in my family that I should invest in instead of always talking to the closest ones. Also make sure to beat them with genuine questions that break open their confidence in the reasoning with the socratic way (epistemology)
What? Belief.
Why? Reason
How? Method for Proof
Or
Identify Persuasion
Question "What is it actually", definition --In between ask for scale 1-10 how confident into the topic are you and importance queries
Why do you believe that?
How could one determine whether this is really true? --In between the scale and importance queries
Best argument for and strongest argument against?
Reflect, i.e. repeat what has been said in your own words eighthly
It's not about being well versed in the topic of conversation But good questions
- This!
  The best strategy is to engage in genuine conversations.
  Most people just label the unknowledgable as stupid and attempt to desperately convince them with a bombardment of facts and counter-arguments. Even worse is just calling them "Nazi" and leave it at that. This is futile with some people who have gone down too deep into the hate-train of social media. They will immediately mentally blockade what you're saying and the cycle continues.
  It's way more effective to get into a friendly conversation and actually engage with what they are saying. Listen. Ask questions. Listen. Ask questions. Understand why they believe what they believe. Be open to their arguments, however rediculous you might find them.
  The most important thing you need to realize that it's not their fault and they are not stupid! They are just the output of their environment. Everyone has emotions. And everyone deals with them differently. Everyone has their environment. And everyone sources their information from that environment. Everyone has parts of their lives where they are misinformed or less educated than an expert in the field. You too! Consequently, the way to change someone's belief is to change their environment while understanding their emotional basis.
  
  and everyone is at a different stage in their life. If i'd have to talk to 10-years-ago-me I wouldnt agree with them in beliefs that are still held today pretty commonly

tja

Many of those aren't real votes but "protest" support. Very dumb imo. They're hoping its a wakeup to the other parties but it really just emboldens the afd.
- Please look at the US and what's happening here right now.
  A significant portion of Trump's voters in 2016 were protest anti-establishment voters and they've been converted into full on Fascist voters in the 8 years since then.
- Nah I don't buy it. Nazis voting for nazis know what they are doing. AfDs plan is clear, like project 2025 was and their voters like what they see and should be treated and handled accordingly.
  
  Okay well in German and I know some of these idiots. It's true. Of course some are literally Nazis. You see the same thing in the US as well. Don't take my reply as defending these people.
- Are they dumber than the parties that didn't get the message?
  
  Can confirm they're generally quite dumb.

- I did Nazi that coming.

For what‘s worth it doesn‘t actually matter what potential voters would vote for each and every week when the next election is almost 4 years away. If anything, bold headlines like these only act as a self fulfilling prophecy and are blatant populism. Even a good government can‘t be super popular every single week and the sooner people realize that, the better for democracy. Though I won‘t hold my breath.

They just asked 1502 people by phone.
- Yes. That's a usual number for representative polling. Sometimes, they ask 1.000, sometimes 2.000. The other German polling institutes are doing the same.
  https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  
  So it is a poll of people who answer phone numbers they don’t recognize.
- That's how statistics works. You take a sample and interpret the reality based on that sample. When you get a blood exam, you don't need to check all the blood, you take a sample and based on that get a result.

Germany: well, okay, listen, it's not working out for America, and it didn't work out for us that one time, but they promised it'll be different for us. What's a few civil liberties and social safety nets if it means we get to ~~extract slave labor from immigrants~~ put immigrants in prison for life for the crime of existing?
- Innuendo Studios summarized it rather well with:
  "We're not like those other fascists. We're young, hip, and successful. Come back, baby. It'll be different this time."
  https://youtu.be/5Luu1Beb8ng?list=PLJA_jUddXvY7v0VkYRbANnTnzkA_HMFtQ&t=1179
  His whole series on White Fascism and the current Alt-Right is a phenomenal summary of today's right wing "conservative" (fascist / nazi) landscape in an internet-connected age. Nothing has truly changed for them: they're still a suicide cult based around attacking "the other" (whatever they pick to attack) and then narrowing who is allowed to be at the top until everyone is dead.

Ah 💩, here we go again

Germany, you're supposed to be good guys this round.
- Germany is the America of the EU, especially since Britain left

Can someone explain how powerful a party can be in Germany with a plurality but without a majority?
- Short version is they cannot govern without a coalition partner, but they gain other rights in the parliament, such as filling important positions in the administration. When they reach 1/3 of the votes, so 33% they have a Sperrminorität, which means they can prevent changes in the constitution and also hinder new judges in the constitutional court.
  
  Extra context: Sperrminorität translates to a blocking minority, as in you have enough votes to prevent a 2/3 majority vote.
  
  Also 25% in an election would allow installing parliamentary inquiry commissions, which can be a decent way to obstruct the government by busying the bureaucracy and hogging media time.
- This is post election. They didn't have the majority during the elections, so while it is impressive, it doesn't give them new political powers. Also, they require coalition partners, but nobody is willing to do that. If a coalition can be formed between (looking at the chart) Union, SPD, and Greens, that puts them at >50% giving them a majority to govern.
  If the new coalition is formed and they don't get their act together within the time of governance, the next elections could be fatal for democracy in Germany. Honestly, like in most other European countries facing threats to democracy, their current governments must take decisive and quick action to make more people happy. However, current governments are trying to play the nazi's game, and they are predictably losing ground because that's not a solution.
  Major parties are playing identity politics, trying to be populistic, bundling nazi ideas as their own, or quite simply not uniting like for example the French left-wing parties did (however short-lived that was). They should be:
  decreasing the gap between the rich and everybody else
  improving EU and national sovereignty by promoting non-US products and services to stop the influx of US and Russian propaganda
  taking radical action to make lodging and life in general more affordable (more social housing, making multi-home ownership less attractive, regulating the market more, etc.)
  improving public transport to reduce car dependence to reduce air and noise pollution in cities, which also makes transport more affordable
  providing more education with paid educational leave to allow career switches
  reduce hurdles for creating small businesses and provide guidance for those willing to start businesses
  invest in technology that makes life easier and more comfortable (better internet to reduce trips to office and government offices in particular, subsidies and research into improved heating and heat retention to reduce electricity and gas bills, ...)
  and so so much more. A happy, educate populace is much less likely to be duped and and magnitudes less likely to vote against their own interests (like voting for lying politicians or nazis).
  
  donno about Germany, but here in UK the current government is actually putting through unexpected changes, but its probably invisible to general public. news outlets are generally pro conservatives here
- Up to 49%.
- That entirely depends on the other parties.
  As long as they have less than 50% the other parties could (in theory) band together against them and create a coalition government.
  The problem arises when that coalition has to become more diverse. As you can imagine the populist right would rather work together with the far right than with the populist left, so the coalition becomes shaky, paralyzed because they cannot come to agreements. The common denominator will be so small that basically nothing gets done, and the oppositional party will profit from that.
  Shaky coalition governments can lead to government breakups and snap elections which in combination with the resulting loss of trust and inability to do anything of the government will likely lead to an even stronger opposition and even more shaky governments or right out majority for the plurality party.
  Also, the leader of the opposition usually chairs important committees like the Budget Committee, the opposition also gets important roles in the committees for Foreign Affairs, Internal Affairs and Defense. It also gets priority in debates, which is usually a good thing, since this works as a check and balance to hold government accountable, but when this role is in the hands of populists, they will certainly use it to further their own narrative.
  
  As you can imagine the populist right would rather work together with the far right than with the populist left
  Ah fuck it let's give the Churches money to build apartments, then. They don't believe in anything anyway so let's just capture a vague sense of conservativeness.

We are fucked
- We are not. It's just a survey and not a vote result.
  
  My guy. You are not seeing the bigger picture.
  
  One predicates the other, though.
  Clearly Germany is not doing enough to put a stop to the rising conservatism movement, and the next election might not end as favorably as a result.
- It‘s what this headline wants you to feel but it doesn‘t mean that much if you actually think about it for a moment.
  
  I see a growth trend that if it continues will suck even more in a few years

What does Bundesreg under Green and SPD mean? Or asked differently... Why doesn't FDP have that text?
- Right know Scholz is still chancellor and the old government still in office. This only changes when Merz is voted into office and the new government formed. FDP is not part of the government anymore since the old coalition failed.

Ha! Suck it Germany! America isn't the only shitty fascist country now.
- But they aren't even the ruling party, what are you on about
  
  I've been watching AfD grow for years. They aren't the ruling party now, but will be soon enough. Maybe German democracy is strong enough to resist Fascism, maybe not. Only time will tell for sure.

Surprising nobody.

To the surprise of absolutely nobody