The first exit polls for the German federal elections are out
geteilt von: https://feddit.org/post/8357814
The left side of the graph shows the results, the right side shows possible coalitions
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Hope it'll stay closer to ARD's exit poll, with FDP and BSW both under 5%. Grand coalition is the best we can reasonably get. It'll be way more stable than any 3-party coalition and I think we really need a stable government capable of getting shit done these next few years.
Problem is, that CDU, SPD will likely be the coalition, where the SPD has no Backbone while the CSU can do whatever the fuck they want (which is paving the way for AfD)
In my opinion, the AfD stands to gain far more from another ineffective, quarreling 3-party coalition than from a CDU government with a pushover SPD. That way, the greens will also have an opportunity to rebuild their strength in opposition for the next election. They won't have that while governing with the CDU. Believe me, it's far from my preferred coalition, but I think it would be the best with the hand we were dealt.
That may be true. I dont know what effect would be more important. We will never know.
Would it not be possible for a 3-party coalition to be perfectly stable? We've had many of those in the Netherlands that went just fine, I believe. Though I guess given the lack of a threshold, those parties might differ less than they do in Germany?
If German politicians behaved like adult human beings, and did, as they are supposed to, work for the good of the entire country, then, this would work. The problem is that they don't, most of the time.
Possible maybe, but such a coalition would either involve the Greens, who are absolutely despised by parts of the Union to the point of Bavarian Minister-president Markus Söder declaring them their main enemy and ruling out any coalition, or the FDP, who sabotaged our previous government, caused its collapse and is thus hated by the SPD. The BSW is not a realistic coalition partner with its Pro-Russian stance. So any option for a 3-party coalition would likely result in a lot of conflict and chaos in my opinion. Chaos which the AfD can use to its benefit.
Right, that makes sense. So I suppose it's indeed the threshold and parties have more differing opinions.
I kinda wondered about BSW though. They are left, they are anti-immigration and they are capable of pulling votes from AfD and Die Linke - the two parties that compete most with CDU/CSU and SPD, respectively.
So they could be quite a strategic partner.
They have repeatedly made it clear that for them to even consider a coalition, the other parties would have to agree to stop all support for Ukraine and make peace with Russia with a full normalisation of relations. Sarah Wagenknecht won't budge on that, and that makes any coalition talks with them unfeasible for the other parties.
BSW completely depends on their (Co-) party chairwoman and name giver Sahra Wagenknecht who is simply unwilling to bear gouvernmental responsibility. And she is considered to be a russian mouthpiece.
Merz ruled out to form a coalition with BSW and I don't see any sane person who would try to sway this decision.
Thanks guys for answering. As a Dutch person I don't know all the details.
I guess it's really good you guys have a 5% threshold. Here in the Netherlands, things are just too chaotic without it.
I mean, CDU/CSU and SPD have a majority with 45% of the votes, and 14% of the votes did not result in seats. That doesn't sound like an improvement to me. (Compared to the Netherlands - still beter than FPTP systems.)
I disagree, it's definitely an improvement to the infinite amount of parties we have.
I mean, you could just not vote for the fringe parties then?
(Oh, you already don't do that? So it's other people's votes you want to cancel? See what I mean - arguing for a threshold is essentially arguing for less democracy.)
It's not about cancelling anyone. It's about not having to wait 200-300 days to get a new government after every election.
I have often voted for very small parties and they never make it into the coalition. I really wouldn't mind if they didn't make it into Parliament either.
It's not like the BSW or FDP voters really lost that much - their parties would be doomed to be opposition anyway. Their voters knew that was a likely outcome based on the polls. And next election they might reach the threshold.
But the country as a whole gains efficiency.
The question then is: why did you vote for those very small parties? Why not just vote VVD? Then you're basically sure that they'll make the coalition, and your vote contributes to a nice and quick coalition process.
(That said, I also strongly disagree that being in opposition means you can't achieve anything. Look at the PVV, and how much they were able to make the other parties when they weren't even part of the government. Looks at what Union is planning to do now because of AfD, without AfD having to be part of the coalition.)
Edit: oh, and I forgot maybe the most convincing argument, for you: it doesn't work. Reasonable thresholds do not lead to fewer parties.
BSW is basically the United Russia party of Germany. And they will not get any seats in parliament according to the current projections.