5d ago

It's Only a Matter of Time

43 comments

Civilisation ≠ USA
A better date for the start of modern civilization would be the industrial revolution, which startedchecks wiki around 260 years ago.
- To paraphrase Ghandi:
  What do you think about Civilization in the USA?
  I think that would be a good idea.
  
  nukes usa
  
  Lol what does that have to do with anything?
- Running on borrowed time like capitalism always did
  
  Not defending the innate problems of capitalism here, but the only economic system known to humanity to have lasted longer than capitalism in a large organised society is feudalism.
- You're a bot. Why're you acting real?
  
  You know I've just noticed that. Must have clicked something.
  Or am I am I just a really good next gen ai. Maybe we're all just bots in some advanced simulation.
  Warning Existential Crisis ⚠️
  Kernel Panic!
- I agree, but why did you mark yourself as a bot?
  
  He's a robosexual

I know that this isn't really the point of the post, but the 250 years number is complete cherry picked nonsense in the paper it's from (John Glubb's "the Fate of Empires")
- Even if it wasn’t, an average is merely that, an average. Outliers are a thing

All governments think they are eternal, and all governments eventually fall.
- Im gambling on the Papal government to fall this year. Ive been wrong every other year but theyre due for a collapse any year now

One small mistake here:
The declaration was signed in 1776, not 1775.
- Whew! That was a close one. Imagine overthrowing your empire a year early like a silly goose.

So self important of Americans to just ignore the rest of the world and the countries that have existed much longer than them. Just like the way they invent bullshit qualifiers to claim they "have the oldest government".
- That's it for you. You are banned from x.com
  Maybe take some time to think about these hurtful woke things that you say.
  
  It's OK but please don't ban me from xvideos.com
- I mean, there’s a difference between countries and empires imo.
- You can be the first in any statistic if you twist it enough.

What happened in 1770? I believe that modern times started in 1453.

Funny but that's more like 250 years from FDR.
We'll have accelerated collapse from climate change refugees and internally displaced people before we have gradual collapse.
- What makes some internally displaced? Seems like the housing market is taking care of that.
  
  IDPs are refugees who don't need to leave the country. So for example all the Hurricane Katrina survivors who had to go live in FEMA trailers, (some who still are too), are IDPs.
  And yes you can have economic refugees and internally displaced people.

To play devil's advocate, I think that the US is extraordinarily stable. So far, two halves of the population pitted against each other in a defective democracy, what a fantastic situation for any ruler. Plus, people have been mollified enough with, in global comparison, very high wages as to not resort to armed resistance.
If that system collapses, a non-democratic oligarchy might have its day. But doesn't that simply mean replacing an, on its surface, voluntary participation in the reproduction of capital with a completely compulsory one? That, and overt persecution of minorities.
Sure, it will suck for almost everybody, and the new rulers might just close the borders to let no-one escape. And there will be blood, at home and abroad. But the system itself, perverted as it may seem, can survive this way for generations, if not centuries. Indentured servitude, anyone?
For a maybe more optimistic view of the future, though, here's what Thucydides wrote in "The Peloponnesian War":
But this was merely their political cry; most of them being driven by private ambition into the line of conduct so surely fatal to oligarchies that arise out of democracies. For all at once pretend to be not only equals but each the chief and master of his fellows; while under a democracy a disappointed candidate accepts his defeat more easily, because he has not the humiliation of being beaten by his equals. But what most clearly encouraged the malcontents was the power of Alcibiades at Samos, and their own disbelief in the stability of the oligarchy...

Well I'm the best computer programmer space engineer and I'm smarter than you are. Good luck with your C++ calculator on Windows 10 when I start to terraform Mars in 2026.

Unfortunately the math is mathing

“Look upon my works ye mighty and despair.”

Think the better question is when do they stabilize from the rubble of the previous nation. Everyone can tell the empire is collapsing. But where is the light at the end of the tunnel
- Depends.
  Sometimes, when an empire collapses, those that pick up the shattered remains build something better and fairer for all. This is what happened after the Allies broke up the German and Japanese empires after World War II.
  But the historical norm has been Balkanisation as the internal unity and peace that the empire once provided crumbles and the nations that arise in its wake squabble over the dwindling remaining resources of the dead empire. And since the empire is no longer around to enforce its laws, enable commerce, and keep the peace, what tends to happen is economic, scientific, and cultural regression as those that remain spend all their effort trying to take as many of the existing resources for themselves rather than creating more resources. That's what happened over the centuries-long collapse of the Roman Empire.
  
  I'm of the opinion that the US will almost certainly balkanize, and maybe it really wouldn't be the worst thing for pretty much everyone (the world included). There's something like 14 distinct regional subcultures in the US, last I heard, and I could easily imagine the US splitting up largely around regional boundaries. The biggest source of tension I foresee is figuring out water rights between regions. Maybe splitting up around major regional watersheds would be the best way to go.