I don't like the clickbait title at all -- Mastodon's clearly going to survive, at least for the forseeable future, and it wouldn't surprise me if it outlives Xitter.
Still, Mastodon is struggling; most of the people who checkd it out in the November 2022 surge (or the smaller June 2023 surge) didn't stick around, and numbers have been steadily declining for the last year. The author makes some good points, and some of the comments are excellent.
I use mastodon every day and I'm glad it's not dominate. It's not a vc funded a shit hole looking for a growth market. I use mastodon because not every one is there, is a nice little niche place where I can play with my friends in peace
Mastodon is the only place where I don't get triggered, and instead get inspired and/or informed.
Good moderation, no bots, no fascists, no "famous, because stupid" idiots. Just a nice bunch of people sharing cool, interesting shit. I absolutely love it.