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  • Russia will set up a puppet government. zelensky will form a government in exile if the fascists or mob of angry widows don't kill him before he tries to dip. Russia will invest lots into rebuilding ukraine. The west will be pissed that the new government doesn't respect any of the sales of public assets. 10-20 years later ukraine will ask to join russia entirely.

  • Imagine what West Germany would have been like if they had not been forced to pretend they were sorry for being Nazis and if they had gotten IMF structural adjustment programmes instead of a Marshall plan.

  • Zelensky makes various moves to try to cling to power once the war ends. Western libs will spin this as somehow not a violation of democracy, but will quickly just stop talking about Ukraine outright. Once he’s deposed, the government will descend into a fight between the right wing faction that feels vaguely white nationalist, and the right wing faction that’s just straight up sporting fascist imagery. One of them will seize control in a violent coup and establish a dictatorship. Western libs, if they pay any attention at all, will act like this just came out of the blue and had nothing to do with the prolonged war.

  • Completely depends on whatever the negotiated deal that ends the war is, but one thing you may count on is a half-hearted to 75%-hearted western attempt to rebuild the western-aligned part of Ukraine, I say this because for the most part what's going to get done is also what will make german/french/british/american companies money, other stuff not so much, and that's still predicated on the EU remaining halfway stable and not in its own internal serious crisis, which would make ukraine aid unpalatable.

    I think the stuff that you saw america do in the cold war to build up anti-communist bastions like Japan and South Korea, so essentially planned industrialization with western enterprises moving to ukraine and easy access to US markets are NOT likely to be done, because for one there's a lot less of that industry left (German has its own internal debate about whether to diversify from or intensify its manufacturing sector) and these economies are just a lot less healthy, yeah america can do anything but do americans feel like that's true? Wouldn't there be pushback for policies that favor ukraine at the expense of americans? Trump wanting to pull out is already a sign of that.

    And I think you 100% CANNOT guarantee Ukraine actually being let into NATO or the EU, Nato because, at the end of the day, without certain guarantees from Russia and Ukraine, and changes in both these countries (more easily in ukraine) I think the Nato people understand that Ukraine-Russia relations COULD worsen again to the point that there's another military conflict between them, and NATO will actually have to decide if it wants to end the world in nuclear apocalypse over some city in cyrilic that no one can point on a map (kiv keiv, idc what you call it), and this is beside the point but my personal opinion is that it wouldn't, Putin could call the bluff and invade estonia tomorrow because at the end of the day, the decision for a nuclear response will be made in places that won't be affected by Russia invading some random eastern european country, the actual text of article 5 talks about "respond appropriately" or something, it doesn't require a nuclear response and I think America would use it as justification to not end the world. So, in sum, might as well just not let Ukraine in, since it's a liability and a risk.

    Regarding the EU, I think everyone (except Orban) can say in 2024, when the real choice is far in the future, that they'd allow Ukraine into the european union and find a place to integrate it in the EU market, but the people saying "Yes" now won't be the people actually deciding in, say 2030, on what to do with Ukraine, and the EU has losers, my country for example Portugal, but also Greece and Italy, and Ireland if they are forced to stop being a tax haven, that have literally 0 to win by letting Ukraine in and having it gobble up EU funds (which btw, are not charity, they're bribe money so shit doesn't get SO BAD in the recipient countries that they'll destabilize), now there's a lot of "Europeanism" (as in the European branch of American Nationalism) in these loser countries which makes going against EU decisions politically difficult, but that's right now, if shit gets worse in the future that will probably change. Also take into account that Ukraine is a big country with a lot of people, like, what do you actually do with it in the EU market? What do you have them do? Eastern Europe was integrated into the german industrial complex but that was a time when those sectors were GROWING, they GREW into the new EU countries, that shit isn't going to grow into ukraine because 1-it might be in recession by then and 2-germans nowadays will probably want to hold on to it. So, in sum, the EU has enough problems WITHOUT Ukraine, and Ukraine has enough problems on its own, there's not guarantee that the EU will have the capacity to actually integrate Ukraine without generating too many grievances

    So it's fucked, it's a fucked country as countries usually are when they lose wars (or when they are made to lose wars, not because they could've ever won but because they could've negotiated out of it early instead of fighting to lose more).

    TIP: Listen to the blowback season 1 episode on america's approach to "rebuilding" Iraq, how much of a ideological project of neoliberal grift it was, with the goal of privatizing state owned companies as some kind of "fix all" solution and taking precedence over actually helping people. Now, there's a lot less of that ideology around, and you can presume that the west will be more generous to a european country than to iraq, but then again, it might be the same thing again.

  • East Ukraine will be annexed by Russia. It's a fringe territory that just experienced a war, so it'll mostly stay poor, except some of the port cities, which prosper.

    West Ukraine will remain an independent nation formally, but exactly who they'll be beholden to depends on how long the war continues and how strong Russia's position is (the longer the west forces this to drag out, the stronger Russia's position). If the war ended today, Ukraine would be hollowed out by western interests from all the privatization, deals, post-reconstruction poverty, etc. If the war keeps going, Russia will pick up more key businesses and resources in the negotiation, and the west will demand the same if not more from the remnants, hollowing it out even more. I don't think there's a point where the whole thing goes to Russia no matter how strong their position becomes, because I think they realize that the US would escalate even further if the finance vampires didn't get their promised blood.

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