Bulletins and News Discussion from September 30th to October 6th, 2024 - Qassam, Qassem, Quagmire
Bulletins and News Discussion from September 30th to October 6th, 2024 - Qassam, Qassem, Quagmire
Image is of the aftermath of an Israeli bombing of Beirut in 2006.
We are now almost one year into the war and genocide in Gaza. Despite profound hardship, the Gazan Resistance continues its battles against the enemy, entirely undeterred. Despite Israeli proclamations throughout 2024 that they have cleared out Hamas from various places throughout Gaza, we still see regular attacks and ambushes against Zionist forces. Just today (Monday), Al Qassam fighters ambushed and destroyed another convoy of Israeli vehicles. The predictions early on in the war were that Israel would defeat Hamas in mere months, needing only until December, then January, and so on. This has proven very much untrue. Israel is stuck in the mud; unable to destroy their enemy due to their lack of knowledge about the "Gaza Metro" and, of course, a lack of actual fighting skill, given how many times I've seen Zionists getting shot while they gaze wistfully out of windows.
The same quagmire will occur in Lebanon, only considerably worse. Both Nasrallah and Sinwar possess a similar strategy of luring Zionist forces onto known, friendly territory, replete with traps and ambushes, to bleed them dry of equipment, manpower, and the will to continue fighting. The scale of the invasion could fall anywhere on the spectrum from "very limited" - more of a series of raids on Hezbollah positions than truly trying to occupy land - to a total invasion which would seek to permanently take control of Southern Lebanon. Neither is likely to destroy, or even substantially diminish Hezbollah's fighting abilities. This is not wishful thinking: Hezbollah has convincingly defeated Israel twice before in its history, pushing them from their territory, and both times Hezbollah had almost no missiles and a limited supply of other equipment, relying on improvisation as often as not. The Hezbollah of 2024 is an entirely different organization to that of the early 2000s.
Attempts to drive wedges between Hezbollah and the rest of Lebanon are also unlikely to succeed. Hezbollah is not just a military force, it is extremely interlinked into various communities throughout Lebanon, drawing upon those communities to recruit soldiers. Throughout its history, it has provided education, healthcare, reconstruction, and dozens of other services one would attribute to a state. Amal Saad's recent suggestion of using "quasi-state actor" as a more respectful replacement for the typical "non-state actor" seems advisable. And the decentralized command structures, compartmented leadership, strong succession planning, and aforementioned community ties almost entirely neutralizes the effectiveness of assassinations. Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem has confirmed that Hezbollah's path has been set by Nasrallah, and his martyrdom will not stop nor even pause their efforts. Additionally, he confirmed that despite the recent attacks by Israel which nominally focussed on destroying missile depots, Hezbollah's supply of weapons has not been degraded, and they are still only using the minimum of their capabilities.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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More details on the US troop deployment to the Middle East.
The U.S. is sending a “few thousand” troops to the Middle East to bolster security and to defend Israel if necessary, the Pentagon said Monday. The announcement follows word that Israel has already launched limited raids across the border into Lebanon.
The additional forces would raise the total number of troops in the region to as many as 43,000...
The additional personnel includes squadrons of F-15E, F-16, and F-22 fighter jets and A-10 attack aircraft, and the personnel needed to support them. The jets were supposed to rotate in and replace the squadrons already there. Instead, both the existing and new squadrons will remain in place to double the airpower on hand.
Looking at that force, which will obviously be supplemented by EA-18G Growler Electronic Warfare (EW) aircraft from aircraft carriers in the region, it is a very diverse force capable of carrying out a first strike on any country in the region and bypassing their air defences, or being capable of supporting strikes, close air support with air superiority being secured, or intercepting ballistic missile attacks.
The F-15E Strike Eagle is a two seat, twin engine multirole jet very capable at air interdiction missions. This was the type of jet that shot down quite a few Iranian drones during the Iranian retaliation earlier this year. It can carry out air to air and air to ground missions.
The F-16 is a single seat, single engine multirole aircraft capable of air to air and air to ground missions. It is a jet that also has a variant and squadrons trained exclusively for "wild weasel" tactics, which involve baiting air defences and shooting anti radiation missiles at their location.
The F-22 is a twin engine, single seat stealth fighter jet, designed for air superiority, but is also capable of limited air to ground missions. Should be able to fly over the entire region without having to worry about being detected or shot down, gives the option for a stealth first strike on any country.
The A-10 is a ground attack aircraft designed exclusively for Close Air Support (CAS) missions. It is very venerable to enemy air defences and even MANPADS, requires complete air superiority to be used. But it is good at that role, designed around it's 30mm Gatling gun.
The F-22 isn't wholly undetectable, the S-400 can reportedly detect it and those giant BVR array installations probably can. China released a video in 2020 of a satellite tracking an F22 visually and some researchers in China tracked a DJI drone using fairly novel means - https://www.eurasiantimes.com/china-can-detect-f-22-f-35-stealth-jets/?amp
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The only S-400 in the region is controlled by Russia at their base in Syria, and will not be shooting down Israeli or American jets unless those planes directly attack the air base. There is also a large difference between passively tracking a stealth aircraft during peacetime, and actively shooting one down in battlefield conditions.
Can't blame a person for hoping someone gets an F-22
Not sure who the A-10s are intended to target
Not sure who the A-10s are intended to target
They're for friendly fire mostly
Contrast the scale of these movements with Ukraine begging 2 years for half a dozen abandoned F-16s sitting on a scrap warehouse somewhere.
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