Bulletins and News Discussion from September 23rd to September 29th, 2024 - The War In The North

Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.

The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.

Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.

I don't know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

You're viewing a single thread.

2.2K comments

good morning, comrades. several comments in the rules request thread were about solid links and substantive main comments in order to build discussion. while i am not sure strict rules are required (there is something to be said for making sure people aren’t so concerned over self-esteem or “real leftism” that they stop talking), i do enjoy discussion based on links from good sources. also, there are people who post very good links and videos from telegram and twitter of primary events, so i am going to try and link analysis of things that have happened in the past few days.
as such, for at least this week, i will be posting what i think are the top three-ish naked capitalism articles of the day, along with some commentary. think of it as a bootleg and abbreviated rip-off of comrade 72T’s bulletins. if it looks like i have time for it with work and people like it, i will do my best to continue.
A breakdown of the recent German state elections in Brandenburg, as well as a general picture of the German economic and political trajectory (bad). i think it is worth extending some mental sympathy to BSW, since unlike many other ‘patsocs’, they wish to RETVRN to the GDR, a real and decent place, instead of purely nationalist fantasy. Many of the people involved, including Ms. Wagenknecht, were adults when the Berlin Wall came down. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/atlanticism-or-sovereignty-fight-in-germany-continues-with-latest-state-election.html
A good explanation of how the ocean is getting warmer, and also a good example of runaway warming/ climate feedback loops. i will say that i think arctic-news’ estimation of up to 18 degrees celsius warming is a bit sensationalist, but sources i prefer suggest 7 to 10 degrees if no mass action is taken and we actually get worse at emissions (the current trajectory), which is still “we all die” territory. https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/high-temperatures-despite-la-nina.html
A very brief report about Ukrainian military activity in Syria. Interesting to think about in context of “is this World War 3 yet?” Also a clear sign of Ukraine lacking a plan for victory (in what universe does a base outside Aleppo effect anything in the Donbass?). Since we know that all Ukrainian ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) is USamerican, you have to wonder what Uncle Sam wanted destroyed in Syria last week (and what the entity was doing to that Iranian base). https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/ukrainian-special-forces-syria
- When i said “a bit sensationalist” i meant “please ignore the header and sidebar”. We should listen to them because the article has sources. The information on the Gulf of Mexico is from the University of Miami. The fact that we are in the middle of a 16+ month trend of the hottest ocean temperatures on record is from NOAA data. The other articles linked by the author are also in line with normal climate science. In my personal view, the most honest way to interpret the current insane climate data is to admit everything is changing and that all our models don’t fit anymore. But we’ll never get models that work if people don’t try to make them. Many of the models used by the IPCC have been optimistic, and there is something to be said for having a pessimistic model in the mix.
  A part of me wonders if the author shifted to the “1000 days and we’re Venus” thing because “we are going to lose civilization and the majority of people” has been the scientific consensus for years and seemingly no one is reacting to it. A non-marxist could be convinced that this is some kind of messaging issue, rather than an issue with a large number of people with a great deal of money and power who demand that we do nothing about climate change.
  Now that i have read your article, i agree that most of arctic-news’ worries about methane hydrates are overblown. i thought the description of a warming ocean and a warming arctic with an increasing chance of year round ice loss was accurate. i will say this same author has an article about the AMOC that takes the furthest possible conclusions from the first Ditlevsen paper, so they’re definitely willing to err on the side of “the world is ending”. Thank you for the correction

2184 comments