So, you’re sure the presidential race will be close? - Roll Call
So, you’re sure the presidential race will be close? - Roll Call
Momentum and candidate skills matter while polls tell only part of the story in the presidential race, columnist Stuart Rothenberg writes.
#Vote! Run the score up!
We have no reason to keep it close. There's no Mercy Rule here. Crush this. We need to win without a shadow of a doubt, no room for debate or bullshit. Fucking VOTE. (Or, never have the choice to vote again, let's be frank.)
We need the house and senate too, and all the down ballot wins we can get. And if you live in a state with reproductive rights, or confusingly worded voter rights proposals on the ballot, get a sample ballot and read it carefully so you can pick the right choice and stop the fascists.
But there isn't a single election, there are 51 separate elections, whose results are combined in a way which gives Republicans an advantage. I will continue to maintain the election will be close until Harris starts to pull even in states like Florida and Texas. Even if she doesn't win those, if those states are closer to even that's an indication that Harris ought to win all the toss-up states.
But unless that happens, I will assume that the election is a toss-up. And not just the election itself, but also the post-gane show of certification.
until Harris starts to pull even in states like Florida and Texas
Recent poll put Harris within margin of error in Texas.
I’m curious with all the nonsense Trump and Vance are spewing about Springfield if Ohio starts to come into play. I may be dreaming, they were up 8 or 9 points before the debate, but I haven’t seen any new numbers since.
It is the certification that has me worried. If this election is anywhere within a couple tenths of a point in Georgia, Nevada, or Michigan then shit is about to be a fucking nightmare.
I don't think people are adequately weighing the danger of the Supreme Court putting their thumb directly on the scale in the event these election deniers are able to effectuate something approximating the obstruction in 2000 or 2020. Now that we know John Roberts is effectively in the bag for Trump, all bets are off.
The popular vote isn't going to be close, Trump hasn't won a popular vote yet.
The electoral college vote looks like it's going to be a squeaker.
My #1 prediction is that voting will be down from 2020 because Covid increased voting by mail and we don't have that this time around. Generally Republicans do better when fewer people vote.
But let's run the numbers and check the map:
Arizona: Toss Up, Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada: Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico: Harris +5, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/Georgia: Trump +1, +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina: Toss Up, Harris +1, +3, Trump +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania: Harris +3, +5, +6, Trump +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan: Harris +1, +3, +5, Tie, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin: Harris +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota: Harris +4, +5, +7, +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/Overall, Harris looks a lot stronger than last week. Even losing Georgia, clawing back PA from Trump and moving Wisconsin fron toss-up to Harris gives her EXACTLY 270.
On the map:
I think this is the first time since Biden dropped out that any candidate has hit the magic 270 number.
I'm not so sure. Are these polls taking into account that abortion is on the ballot in a lot of states? If the question is Trump v Harris i believe these polls, but every time abortion has been on a ballot it drives democrats out to the polls and their candidates win with larger margins than expected.
Here are the states where abortion is on the ballot:
MT, NV, AZ, CO, SD, NB, MO, FL, MD, NY.
CO, MD, and NY are all voting Harris anyway.
MT, SD, NB, MO are all heavy Trump states.
While I'd like to say it could make a difference in NV, AZ, or FL, everything is looking like it won't.
People can support abortion and still vote Trump.
Florida: Trump +2, +3, +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/Florida Abortion Amendment: +38
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4801375-florida-abortion-ballot-initiative/So abortion leads Harris in Florida by a lot.
I can’t remember the numbers, but the recent NPR Politics podcast mentioned that a large percentage (upper 90s I think) of voters are eligible to mail in vote this election. Many with no reason necessary.
I’m personally voting at my polling place on the day, but that’s because I have the time, line in a small town and don’t want to burden the counters with mail to open and verify.
It sounds like even Republicans realize the value of mail in voting, as Dejoy is even reviewing the handling of mail in ballots at USPS.
Rothenberg starts by noting that, if you go by the polls, it's going to be a close election in November. And the polls might very well be right. However, there are indicators that Kamala Harris is driving up enthusiasm among some key demographics, most obviously younger voters and voters of color. Pollster models of the 2024 electorate are based, more or less, on what the 2020 electorate looked like. That means that if the 2024 electorate is substantively different, the polls could be off, perhaps by a lot. The conclusion is that you shouldn't be too terribly surprised if, in the end, Harris wins fairly comfortably. Rothenberg is not saying that WILL happen, merely that it's within the realm of possibility.
I have no doubt the polls are off. I also have no doubt the election for President will be painfully close. Whether that’s in swing states, republiQan “State Elections Cheating Board”s, fake electors, or MAGA terrorism.
There is zero benefit to thinking it will be a walk-off home run for Harris at this time. I’ll be more than happy to revisit it after she is inaugurated.
Of course no campaign will get a country mile from this concept. The point is more for an intellectual discussion. If it did happen, we can test if there will be less problems from a wider win.
I vote from Michigan and am just waiting on my ballot.
Kick ass!
Be sure to vote, no matter what you think the outcome will be. Complacency could be the deciding factor here.
Roll Call - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)
Information for Roll Call:
MBFC: Least Biased - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: Very High - United States of America
Wikipedia about this sourceSearch topics on Ground.News
https://rollcall.com/2024/09/16/so-youre-sure-the-presidential-race-will-be-close/